Let's talk about the transfer portal...

[Jay Bee]

Relationships. Regression. Defeats.

[rocky_warrior]

?
You honestly believed that Shaka Smart would instruct any player at any time ever to "take it easy"??
I hope you came to the right conclusion that Shaka would never ever do that.

Honestly believed?  Not really.  Honestly questioned?  Yes.  It was crazy how little energy the guys were playing with to start the games.  And then how much energy they would put into defense to start the second half.  The adjustment seemed 100% to be "Play Harder!", lol.

[Captain Quette]

In light of knowing that 3 pt shooting was a weakness coming into this year, did Shaka even look into the portal. If yes and no good fits found than OK. However if he didn't even look, than pretty myopic. Just hoping he has some strategy in place. Note, we likely have the same 3 pt problem next year.

[MUfan12]

Miletic and Phillips can both really shoot it. But who knows how ready they'll be.

I'd love a Morsell-type bridge player to score the ball, but I'm not holding my breath.

[brewcity77]

In light of knowing that 3 pt shooting was a weakness coming into this year, did Shaka even look into the portal. If yes and no good fits found than OK. However if he didn't even look, than pretty myopic. Just hoping he has some strategy in place. Note, we likely have the same 3 pt problem next year.

Why assume that was a weakness? Kam, Jop, & Ben were all over 35% last year. Stevie and Chase were both over 38% in conference play last year. From a data perspective, that should've been a strength. It hasn't played out that way, but I feel confident the staff planned on shooting more threes and connecting at a higher rate.

[Galway Eagle]

In light of knowing that 3 pt shooting was a weakness coming into this year, did Shaka even look into the portal. If yes and no good fits found than OK. However if he didn't even look, than pretty myopic. Just hoping he has some strategy in place. Note, we likely have the same 3 pt problem next year.

Given Ben's conference shooting, and Kam and Jop's percentages I doubt Shaka thought it'd be an issue. Anyone who knew it'd be an issue was actually just overly focused on NC State and happened to be right after a few conference games.

[Jay Bee]

From early August... I thought we had a chance to improve slightly in 3fg%, with Jop being key. Obviously not how it's been turning out, but to think the staff knew 3fg% was going to be this down I don't think is fair.

We finished #45 in raw offensive efficiency and #21 in KenPom offensive AE. I expect a drop in OE this season and perhaps the only reasonable path to improve would be insane (top 10 nationally) 3-point shooting.
.........
 
eFG% - We're down to the most important factor as our only hope. We were great last season – 55.0%, good for #21 in the nation.. So, the problem is there isn't a ton of room to move up. A bigger problem is our 2FG% of 56.6% (#13).
 
Gone is Oso and his 58.0% 2FG%. Sure, Ben was at 75.8%, but those were limited attempts and a lot of dunks. Can he be a 60% guy? Certainly.
 
Stevie Mitchell's 63.1% would be tough to repeat. Kam's 59.6% 2FG% was great, and it's certainly possible he could wind up with something similar this year... but can't project dramatic improvement. Chase (47.6%) and the frosh may find a way to get it done... and Jop can be quite a bit better than his 50.0%.. but overall I'm not banking on improvement in 2FG% and expect it to be down a bit.
 
So, now we're onto 3FG%. We finished at a solid 35.2% for the season, including the NC State debacle caused by fraudulently-filled basketballs and crap rims. That was good for #106 in the country.
 
Once you're into the 37.2% range (a 2.0% improvement), you're sitting at about #20 nationally. If we dropped our 2FG% by 2.0% and improved 3FG% by 2.0% with last year's attempt mix, our eFG% would decline by 0.1%.
 
We're losing Tyler's 38.8% on 121 attempts. Not breathtaking, but very good. Kam sat at 40.6%, a career high. Could we see an uptick? I'm certainly hoping so.. but I think we're talking about 42-43%.. nothing shocking, like Markus' freshman year 54.7%.
 
Jop is capable of much better than 35.5%. He will be key.
 
Some good news is most of the rest of the group (excluding Chase and Ben) were flat out terrible shooting the ball from distance. The 'others' should improve in a group, including the sophs and frosh. Can Damarius and Royce step up and knock down high-30%? Sure.
 
But, it's asking a lot.. I do think it's possible to improve our 3FG%.. but at the end of the day, we're probably just offsetting declines in 2FG%, and it's going to be volatile.
 
Over the course of the season, I think our offense is down. It won't be bad – it'll be good. But, not flirting with elite. I'd probably be happy with something in the mid-30's, but would project more in the ballpark of the mid-40's.
 
Pray.

[Zog from Margo]

It seems to me that, while portal teams needed time for transfers to assimilate, Shaka knew his team's ceiling depended upon getting bench contributions. He went to the bench early and often this season and we are starting to see that pay dividends. More experienced transfers might have been able to take the step up more quickly. That said, there is still hoops left to play and the bench still has time to close any gap. Obviously, getting Kam back on track is the key, but getting offense from the bench could take off some of the pressure. Ross's improving offensive play will help as well. We'll see.

[Newsdreams]

Ben was at almost 50% from 3 in league and had back to back games of 13 and 9 rebounds within the last two weeks, as well as scaring Matta into changing his lineup and keeping  Screen away from him.  He has struggled the last couple if games.  He isn't alone.  Ebbs and flows.

Shin splint issues again, why he is limited.

[tower912]

It would not surprise me.  Is that official or internet chat?

[NotAnAlum]

As others have said this was an over achieving team for the first 3 months due to the fact that they were upperclassmen laden and didn't have to integrate transfers.  They are arriving back at where they would have been expected to be losing Tyler and Oso.  And it probably doesn't bode well for a deep run in March.
I fear that Shaka has become so committed being the poster child for abstaining from the portal that he is doing it to the detriment of team performance.  You can take a transfer here or there to upgrade talent and still rely primarily on in house development. If a kid has a chance to be a star you'll typically see flashes as a freshman.   That certainly was the case with Kam and Chase.  If you don't see it you need to bring in some portal help despite what it might do to "relationships".  Can the Sophs reach at least Stevie level as upper classmen (despite Zaide's performance last night Im not certain)  Will Sean be star material coming off that injury?  Are any of the guys slotted as a 5 going to pan out?  (Ben was certainly overmatched last night)

I assume expectations under Shaka have risen to the point that it is not longer good enough have a middle tier BE team that can knock off one of the big boys on occasion.  We expect to be one of the big boys and that means high performance out of all 5 starters and a couple of bench players.  Pretty tough to hit home runs on most of your High School recruits but that is what you need.  Seems pretty clear at least limited use of the portal will be required.     

[willie warrior]

...and I don't mean Shaka using it.  Is this the point in the season when "transfer portal" teams can eclipse Shaka's "home grown" teams?

No doubt we started on a tear and looked like one of the best teams in the country.  All credit to Shaka.  We've also had a few injuries (Kam, Stevie, Chase, Zaide) that held us back.

Legit, the first few games where we fell behind in the first half but ended up winning I was hoping Shaka was instructing his guys to take it easy in the first half.  I don't believe that's the case.

Can Shaka overcome very talented rosters that eventually gel, with his home grown (also talented) rosters?

No. st. Johns proved it. Ande they played poorly but still won.

[Newsdreams]

It would not surprise me.  Is that official or internet chat?

Raftery mentioned last night, but only once. But in the UCONN game I was wondering why he was being platooned and limited, told Doc (sitting by me) he must have issues. Had both shin splints and ankle tendinitis (Stevie) while a sprinter in HS. I don't even know how they can play. The pain from both is like a torn muscle injury, like a knife is cutting into you.

[tower912]

I have had shin splints.  Agreed. 

I had the sound down a fair amount of the game listening to my wife.   Surprised more people didn't hear and comment on that. 

[Captain Quette]

Regarding shooting last year, it had been a weakness most of the year. First is the nc state game and second, no one on our team was or is a knock down 3 pt shooter a la Steve Novak despite the shooting percentages listed above (which over the course of the entire season were at best pedestrian).

I still have high hopes and will support this team just wish Shaka would have done more in off season.

[BrewCity83]

The shooting definitely isn't where it needs to be.  Not making excuses, but last night I noticed Kam, Stevie, and Chase all nursing injured shooting hands/wrists at one time or another. Chase has his shooting thumb wrapped.  Don't tell me that's not affecting their shooting.

And if Ben has shin splints, that's gotta be affecting his shooting too. 

[brewcity77]

Regarding shooting last year, it had been a weakness most of the year. First is the nc state game and second, no one on our team was or is a knock down 3 pt shooter a la Steve Novak despite the shooting percentages listed above (which over the course of the entire season were at best pedestrian).

I still have high hopes and will support this team just wish Shaka would have done more in off season.

That's a lie. We were a solid 35.2% for the season and 36.6% in Big East play, showing we were good and got better as the year went on. Did we have outlier performances like Butler at home & NC State along the way? Sure, but you're ignoring the facts that in addition to 36.6% in conference, we shot 39.3% in our three games at MSG in the BET and 38.6% in the NCAA opening weekend to get to the Sweet 16.

Last year we had an excellent shooting team that shot better every step of the way until a crazy outlier against NC State. Most of those players returned which is why this team was expected to be much better from three than they've been.

[Captain Quette]

Brew - very good stats. At overall 35% on 3s, which put us at about the 110th best 3 pt shooting team in country and losing Kolek (who I believe shot 38%), it may have been something to address. Was not lying just hoping that shaka improved upon what you yourself called "solid."

[tower912]

Also, Parham and Owens were considered good 3 pt shooters.

[GoldenEagles03]

Also, Parham and Owens were considered good 3 pt shooters.

Owens is almost at 50% from 3. If he could impact the game more defensively he'd definitely help in that area. Maybe Shaka needs to let him make mistakes now so he can help impact them later. Maybe he needs more run.

[Hards Alumni]

OUCH!!!!!

I'll leave the coaching to Shaka and how to turn this team in the direction it needs to go.

That said, I agree with Brother Sultan that this is a somewhat flawed team. After the pre-conference season, our expectations became sky-high. The team probably is good enough to win one, maybe two NCAA tournament games but will struggle mightily beyond that point. We can't compete yet with the Auburns, Dukes or, as we saw, Iowa States of the world. Not yet, anyway.

Our guys are playing their heart out but you can see fatigue setting in, mentally and physically.

The good news in all of this is our younger players are stepping up. Our recruiting is focusing on a more complete team and as time moves on, we'll become less finesse and more physical.

Beat:

Purdue 7th ranked currently
Maryland 18th ranked currently
Wisconsin 21st ranked currently


Lost

Iowa State 8th ranked currently
UConn 19th ranked currently
St Johns 12th ranked currently

Guys.  I get it, we lost a couple of winnable games and they didn't feel that close, but we have also beaten some really good teams, and will get another shot at UConn and St Johns.  Relax.

[tower912]

This argument goes back to scoop's inception.  A coach doesn't give a freshman time based on defense, practice habits, understanding of role.  Scoop thinks he is wrong.

[GoldenEagles03]

Beat:

Purdue 7th ranked currently
Maryland 18th ranked currently
Wisconsin 21st ranked currently


Lost

Iowa State 8th ranked currently
UConn 19th ranked currently
St Johns 12th ranked currently

Guys.  I get it, we lost a couple of winnable games and they didn't feel that close, but we have also beaten some really good teams, and will get another shot at UConn and St Johns.  Relax.

There's nothing wrong with losing to the teams they are losing to. How they are losing is the issue.

If they want to build towards making a Final Four or winning a Championship they have to start playing better. That's the goal right?

At the end of the day, a critical fan isn't going to change any outcome on the court. I think many fans criticisms come from us seeing that this team is capable of being a good team and doing something special.

[Hards Alumni]

This argument goes back to scoop's inception.  A coach doesn't give a freshman time based on defense, practice habits, understanding of role.  Scoop thinks he is wrong.

We also have a recency bias problem that will never be solved.

[tower912]

Don't forget the aircraft carrier argument. MU has not had one in the 18 years scoop has been around.


And myopia.  Thinking universal themes like losing streaks that happen to nearly every team every season are unique to MU and should lead to an existential crisis.