Free throw shooting

[tower912]

I posted this at the end of the Georgetown synopsis, but some people don't go through old threads and I think it is worthy of notice.

Joplin is shooting 88.9% from the line.

The other 4 starters are shooting between 75 and 80% from the line.   

The team is shooting 76% from the line.

The only thing that would make it better is getting there more often.

[Shooter McGavin]

What's that saying around here about free throw percentage?  The argument would be MU would have won anyway if they went 5 for 12 at the end of the GT game rather than 12/12.


But I'm of the opinion, like you, its nice to make them at a high percentage when they do shoot them.  Of course it would be great to win the rate portion of the free throw battle. But making free throws at simply a higher percentage seems at least somewhat important in the metrics world now based on how it is better  to beat teams by more points (cover the spread).  It helps with seeding in the tournament (couple more wins over a season, better efficiency metrics, albeit a small portion of efficiency). As with every argument there is some nuance to it.

[tower912]

JB's point (I think)is that team free throw shooting  percentage is not as statistically relevant as some think.  70% vs 76% is irrelevant from a ppp (both elite) and efg% standpoint.   It is more important that a team gets to the line 30 times than it is whether they hit 21 (meh) or 24 (elite) of those 30 attempts in a given game.

Nobody argues that hitting/missing late game free throes doesn't make a difference.

My reason for posting this is because it sticks a knife into the 'make your free throws/MU sucks from the line' trope.

[Shooter McGavin]

I agree with both you and Jay Bee.  But I'm glad they are hitting at a higher percentage nonetheless. As minuscule of an advantage as it is I'll take it.

As high as I am on this team their margin for error is small.  Especially to get to where I think they can go. 

And sorry for possibly steering the thread in the wrong direction.

[NotAnAlum]

Ask Karaban this morning if free throws matter.

[tower912]

I am glad that MU is shooting well at the line.   And nobody argues that late game free throws no matta.
Team ft% in a game is a poor predictor of outcome. 
Team A shoots 90% from the line.
Team B shoots 70% from the line.

Who won the game?

Team A shot 9-10 from the line
Team B shot 28-40 from the line.

Who probably won the game?

JB put it in a silly shorthand that actually obscures his actual point.

[Uncle Rico]

I am glad that MU is shooting well at the line.   And nobody argues that late game free throws no Matra.  Team ft% in a game is a poor predictor of outcome. 
Team A shoots 90% from the line.
Team B shoots 70% from the line.

Who won the game?

Team A shot 9-10 from the line
Team B shot 28-40 from the line.

Who probably won the game?

JB put it in a silly shorthand that actually obscures his actual point.

I can tell you who didn't win and that was the viewing public

[Shooter McGavin]

I am glad that MU is shooting well at the line.  And nobody argues that late game free throws no Matra.  Team ft% in a game is a poor predictor of outcome. 
Team A shoots 90% from the line.
Team B shoots 70% from the line.

Who won the game?

Team A shot 9-10 from the line
Team B shot 28-40 from the line.

Who probably won the game?

JB put it in a silly shorthand that actually obscures his actual point.

100% get it and with you on the overall point. Just glad MU is on the right side of the percentage portion as well this year.

[Shooter McGavin]

I can tell you who didn't win and that was the viewing public

Ha! That would have been a boring game to watch.

[tower912]

I can tell you who didn't win and that was the viewing public

Frickin' Providence game.

[Jay Bee]

tower hit on one of the many points...

Again... referencing Karaban choking is completely irrelevant here. Not the topic.

It's simply that team ft% isn't relevant to who wins & loses a bball game.

If all I know about a game is that team a shot 80% from the line and team b shot 70%... what do I know about the game? Jack sh1t. I don't even know whose offense had the advantage from the line. Remember, a "bad" ft% of 60% represents ELITE offense.

[Jockey]

I am glad that MU is shooting well at the line.  And nobody argues that late game free throws no Matra.  Team ft% in a game is a poor predictor of outcome. 
Team A shoots 90% from the line.
Team B shoots 70% from the line.

Who won the game?

Team A shot 9-10 from the line
Team B shot 28-40 from the line.

Who probably won the game?

JB put it in a silly shorthand that actually obscures his actual point.

Those numbers tell us 2 things. 1) team A is a terrible defensive team, and 2) team B is an aggressive offense who gets into the paint at will.

[tower912]

The difference between 'we suck' and 'we rock' in an individual game is one more make/miss every 12 free throws.  8-12 vs 9-12.     This is statistically irrelevant from a ppp perspective.


My original point stands.  MU makes free throws at an acceptably high percentage.

[TallTitan34]

Frickin' Providence game.

13-19 FT (.684) to 35-49 FT (.714).

I can tell you who didn't win and that was the viewing public

68 free throw attempts.  Madness.

[Its DJOver]

team ft% isn't relevant to who wins & loses a bball game.

If this were repeated ad nauseum instead of the hashtag, we wouldn't have to have this conversation multiple times a season.

[MarquetteDano]

I can tell you who didn't win and that was the viewing public

Ha.  Most NBA games?

[Badgerhater]

Situational FTs matter.  MU went 12-12 at the end of the GU game.  Each pair made slowly closed off Georgetown's options and thus making it easier to defend.   Always keep the pressure on the opponent.  Always deny options.

[Big Papi]

Free throws do matter.  They do make an impact in a game, but free throw stats don't tell you the whole story and can't predict an outcome.  It would be like saying turnovers don't matter.  Rebounding doesn't matter.  Field goal percentage doesn't matter.  They all impact the game.  Missing free throws when you have them, impacts the game.  I don't get this free throw argument and probably never will.

Regarding the free throw percentages.  Hard to believe that Jop's percentage is so great, and the other starters are so solid.  I still don't completely trust anyone other than Stevie on making free throws at the end of games in a pressure situation.  I think Jop's 3 missed free throws in the NC State has forever impacted my lack of trust in him making clutch free throws.

[MarquetteDano]

Free throws do matter.  They do make an impact in a game, but free throw stats don't tell you the whole story and can't predict an outcome.  It would be like saying turnovers don't matter.  Rebounding doesn't matter.  Field goal percentage doesn't matter.  They all impact the game.  Missing free throws when you have them, impacts the game.  I don't get this free throw argument and probably never will.

Regarding the free throw percentages.  Hard to believe that Jop's percentage is so great, and the other starters are so solid.  I still don't completely trust anyone other than Stevie on making free throws at the end of games in a pressure situation.  I think Jop's 3 missed free throws in the NC State has forever impacted my lack of trust in him making clutch free throws.

A better way to look at it is:

Team A
Best shooting team in the country (both 2 point and 3 point shooting)
Average Rebounding Team (both offensive and defensive)
Average defensive team from a shooting standpoint
Average turnover team
Average in terms of getting to the line (not FT%,  but free throw attempts)
Worst Free Throw % team in the country

Team B
Best Free Throw % team in the country
Average Shooting Team
Average Rebounding Team (both offensive and defensive)
Average defensive team from a shooting standpoint
Average turnover team
Average in terms of getting to the line (not FT%,  but free throw attempts)


Team A is better than Team B.  Period.  And it most cases above if you make Team A the best at some area other than FT% it will be better than Team B.

[Scoop Snoop]

With the caveat that it is only one game....look at the fouls and FTs from the Nova/UCONN game last night. Fouls: N 9, UC 16. FT's: N 12/13, UC 2/4. While fans of teams that got called for a disproportionate number of fouls blame the refs for "giving the game to...", the style of play and the defensive aggressiveness of a team often has a large impact on the FT opportunities of their opponents.

As to the end-of-the-game FTs, it's too easy to give credit to or blame the FT shooter when missed FTs earlier in the game count for just as much as the end of the game ones. However, last night's game was exceptional due to UCONN making the first 2 FT's earlier in the game and their last opportunity was with Karaban at the line.

[Jay Bee]

It would be like saying turnovers don't matter.  Rebounding doesn't matter.  Field goal percentage doesn't matter.  They all impact the game.  Missing free throws when you have them, impacts the game.  I don't get this free throw argument and probably never will.

Agreed that you probably never will get it, but you're absolutely wrong. I would never say turnovers don't matter, but the facts are team FT% has no meaningful relevance to winning bball games and further, field goal % is irrelevant.

The math and logic is simple, guys. Smh

[Scoop Snoop]

Only final score matta.

[Badgerhater]

The other aspect of FT shooting that separates from the end of the game to the rest of the game is the opponent's intent.

Fouls are generally avoided during the game, but are often planned and intentional at the end.  The opponent is putting you on the line deliberately and for a reason, best to capitalize and make them.

In that respect, end of game FT are more important because it closes the opponents options.  Missing them leaves them open.

But..but...if 4 made FT in the first half were made then the margin at the end of the game .... Blah blah blah.

Well, so would have all the other missed opportunities in all the other factors.

End of game is where grit and guts ( making high-pressure FTs) can beat stats...if it didn't then why play the game.

[TallTitan34]

Agreed that you probably never will get it, but you're absolutely wrong. I would never say turnovers don't matter, but the facts are team FT% has no meaningful relevance to winning bball games and further, field goal % is irrelevant.

Example:  Butler game this year when Marquette got off 28 more shots than Butler because they had 12 fewer turnovers and 16 more offensive rebounds.  Butler won FG% though 51% to 42%.

[MarquetteDano]

Apologize if someone did this recently but here is the rankings of FT% in the country of the NCAA champs since 2012

84th
35th
170th
188th
52nd
10th (Nova)
172nd
2nd (Nova)
153rd
4th (UConn)
121st
65th