Room For Concern / Win Anyway

[K1 Lover]

Is it just me, or is Wisconsin being grossly underestimated in this matchup?

Every single neutral source I've come across that's already talking about our upcoming game — be it sportsbook, analytics site, or podcast — has predicted that MU will get the W. BartTorvik, for example, forecasts us winning by 7.1 points with 75% confidence, which is suprisingly even more confidence than it had for ISU beating us in Hilton last night.

As much as I'd like to fully buy into that, however, I can't help but feel like Wisconsin has a frustratingly equal, if not favorable, chance of winning on Saturday. They have a Keshon Gilbert-esque stud in John Tonje, and anyone who's watched Wisconsin play this season knows that they love to rack up free throws (see the 47 they shot against Arizona for reference). Combine this with the fact that we're already a foul-prone team as is, and it's not hard to see how this could quickly get out of hand — especially when our lineup is likely going to be down at least 2-3 impact players including Sean. Although we have the homecourt advantage and better metrics, Wisconsin will surely benefit from being deeper, healthier, and older with 5 seniors in their rotation.

Ultimately, I still believe Marquette has everything it needs to take back the state; I just think it's going to be a much more difficult game than most might expect for the reasons stated above. But by the same token, if our boys overcome the obstacles needed to pull this off, I think it's safe to say this will easily serve as one of our most impressive wins of the entire season.

[wadesworld]

Wisconsin is not as good as you are giving them credit for. My only concern is injuries. If Chase is out then yes, it'll be tough. But this will not be one of our most impressive wins if him and Ben both play. We're the home team and the better team. Take care of business.

[K1 Lover]

Wisconsin is not as good as you are giving them credit for. My only concern is injuries. If Chase is out then yes, it'll be tough. But this will not be one of our most impressive wins if him and Ben both play. We're the home team and the better team. Take care of business.

Man I sure hope you're right. I'd love nothing more than to eat my words this weekend.

[We R Final Four]

We will beat them by double digits......every year.

[wadesworld]

Honestly we make way too much out of this game. MU under Shaka has bigger things to worry about than whether or not we beat the Badgers. Shaka hasn't beat them yet, but he's doing just fine.

[K1 Lover]

Good point. Though it'd sure be nice for Kam, Stevie, and Jop to get at least one win against the Badgers in their college career before graduating. 

[The Hippie Satan of Hyperbole]

Honestly we make way too much out of this game. MU under Shaka has bigger things to worry about than whether or not we beat the Badgers. Shaka hasn't beat them yet, but he's doing just fine.

Don't you understand? We have to "take back the state!"

[K1 Lover]

Don't you understand? We have to "take back the state!"

Came for discussion and instead I got mockery. Nice.

[The Hippie Satan of Hyperbole]

Came for discussion and instead I got mockery. Nice.

It will likely be a close game. I hope we win. We will know in less than 48 hours.

[Uncle Rico]

It will likely be a close game. I hope we win. We will know in less than 48 hours.

Thinking of Viper's brother-in-law

[wisblue]

Is it just me, or is Wisconsin being grossly underestimated in this matchup?

Every single neutral source I've come across that's already talking about our upcoming game — be it sportsbook, analytics site, or podcast — has predicted that MU will get the W. BartTorvik, for example, forecasts us winning by 7.1 points with 75% confidence, which is suprisingly even more confidence than it had for ISU beating us in Hilton last night.

As much as I'd like to fully buy into that, however, I can't help but feel like Wisconsin has a frustratingly equal, if not favorable, chance of winning on Saturday. They have a Keshon Gilbert-esque stud in John Tonje, and anyone who's watched Wisconsin play this season knows that they love to rack up free throws (see the 47 they shot against Arizona for reference). Combine this with the fact that we're already a foul-prone team as is, and it's not hard to see how this could quickly get out of hand — especially when our lineup is likely going to be down at least 2-3 impact players including Sean. Although we have the homecourt advantage and better metrics, Wisconsin will surely benefit from being deeper, healthier, and older with 5 seniors in their rotation.

Ultimately, I still believe Marquette has everything it needs to take back the state; I just think it's going to be a much more difficult game than most might expect for the reasons stated above. But by the same token, if our boys overcome the obstacles needed to pull this off, I think it's safe to say this will easily serve as one of our most impressive wins of the entire season.

I think you can throw the projections like Torvik and KenPom out the window unless they can somehow account for injuries. Not having Lowrey and Ross completely changes MU's style and takes away its biggest strength: the pressure defense.

I note that MU had 2 fast break points last night compared to 19 against Purdue. Take away the points off live ball turnovers and MU is reduced to a half court offense heavily dependent on 3 point shots. I think they'll have to hit at least 40% of their 3's to win Saturday.

[Viper]

Honestly we make way too much out of this game. MU under Shaka has bigger things to worry about than whether or not we beat the Badgers. Shaka hasn't beat them yet, but he's doing just fine.

beat your rival. Michigan football is 7-5 but beat Ohio State, again. That's huge. Always beat your rival. Always! I mean, you live in WI? Can't go 4 straight L's to those mothers.

[Viper]

Don't you understand? We have to "take back the state!"

says the guy from the state south of WI.

[Viper]

It will likely be a close game. I hope we win. We will know in less than 48 hours.

profound, very

[Viper]

Thinking of Viper's brother-in-law

❤️

[brewcity77]

Is it just me, or is Wisconsin being grossly underestimated in this matchup?

Metrics like kenpom and T-Rank base their projections on efficiency margins and game location. When a more efficient team plays at home against a less efficient team, the more efficient team will be favored. The point spread will also reflect that.

I think Bucky is a tough matchup, but from a neutral computer's perspective, we're the better team and we're at home, which means we probably win 3 times out of 4.

[Uncle Rico]

beat your rival. Michigan football is 7-5 but beat Ohio State, again. That's huge. Always beat your rival. Always! I mean, you live in WI? Can't go 4 straight L's to those mothers.

I live in Wisconsin and my life hasn't changed one bit even though Wisconsin has beaten Marquette 3 straight times

[tower912]

Just win, baby.

[wisblue]

Metrics like kenpom and T-Rank base their projections on efficiency margins and game location. When a more efficient team plays at home against a less efficient team, the more efficient team will be favored. The point spread will also reflect that.

I think Bucky is a tough matchup, but from a neutral computer's perspective, we're the better team and we're at home, which means we probably win 3 times out of 4.

Don't you think playing without Ross and Lowrey affects MU's efficiency and, therefore, the validity of those projections?

It may not be a big factor, but MU doesn't get the full home crowd advantage against the Badgers either because they will have a very noticeable portion of the crowd behind them.

If Vegas follows the computers and makes MU a 7 point favorite taking UW and the points would be a good bet.

[CountryRoads]

If we lose, it'll be in the Q2 column unfortunately. I think the two keys to the game are Kam staying out of foul trouble and Tonje not getting that crazy and bizarre whistle he's gotten. Fortunately, I think the refs have finally made note of that and will allow some contact. No idea what the hell was going on those first few games with that whistle he was getting.

[GoldenEagles03]

I think you can throw the projections like Torvik and KenPom out the window unless they can somehow account for injuries. Not having Lowrey and Ross completely changes MU's style and takes away its biggest strength: the pressure defense.

I note that MU had 2 fast break points last night compared to 19 against Purdue. Take away the points off live ball turnovers and MU is reduced to a half court offense heavily dependent on 3 point shots. I think they'll have to hit at least 40% of their 3's to win Saturday.

Who knows...maybe not having Ross and Lowery makes them tougher to scout. As Shaka says...sometimes Freshman are so inexperienced that it can actually work in their favor because they don't know the magnitude of the moment and are just playing.

I agree with tower...Just win, baby!

[Uncle Rico]

If we lose, it'll be in the Q2 column unfortunately. I think the two keys to the game are Kam staying out of foul trouble and Tonje not getting that crazy and bizarre whistle he's gotten. Fortunately, I think the refs have finally made note of that and will allow some contact. No idea what the hell was going on those first few games with that whistle he was getting.

Well, they lost to them last year at full strength and still ended the year as a 2-seed. 

We all want them to win and blow them out but this game is one of many in a long season.  It's not like they're playing Radford

[The Hippie Satan of Hyperbole]

profound, very

Well what have you added? Outside of your "beat your rival" nonsense.

UW plays a style that is difficult for Marquette to function against offensively. But we will be at home and if we hit our shots we will win. Not much to break down here. 

[MU82]

I don't expect an easy win. I do expect a win.

Their guards turned it over 8 times at home just two days ago. I'm hopeful we can turn them over  (even without Ross), and that we'll shoot well at home. I think both of those hopes are realistic.

[wadesworld]

It appears viper has been welcomed back just in time for his favorite subject. And boy is he taking advantage.