Mortgage rates and the housing market

[dgies9156]

Not sure where you're getting your figures, but the homestead exemption went up to $8,000 in the collar counties and $10,000 in Cook County, not $4,000.
The senior exemption went up to $8,000 in Cook and the collar counties.
It's all right there in the story.

Regardless, you're shifting goalposts. You wrote that "Hell will freeze over and Satan will be wearing ear muffs before that EVER happens in Illinois."
I pointed out that it happened in Illinois just last year, to which your response was "Well, yeah, but ..."

My point is that the adjustment is a very small adjustment to value on which the home is taxed. The amount of tax savings is de minimus to most Chicago area taxpayers.

On my old $17,000 tax bill, the savings would be worth a whopping $75.00 if I was in Cook County. Nothing in Lake. If you want to celebrate that, be my guest. For me, it might cover about a third of the cost of one prescription before I met my annual deductible.

If the goalpost moved, it's because the wind was blowing the vertical posts about an inch.

[Jay Bee]

Need to jack up property taxes so we can continue to support illegals!!

[jesmu84]

[Skatastrophy]

My point is that the adjustment is a very small adjustment to value on which the home is taxed. The amount of tax savings is de minimus to most Chicago area taxpayers.

On my old $17,000 tax bill, the savings would be worth a whopping $75.00 if I was in Cook County. Nothing in Lake. If you want to celebrate that, be my guest. For me, it might cover about a third of the cost of one prescription before I met my annual deductible.

If the goalpost moved, it's because the wind was blowing the vertical posts about an inch.

Yep agreed, I live in the city so I have lower property tax rates than the burbs. Our tax rate is just under 2% of assessed value. $10k off of my assessed value is both not a noticeable impact on my tax bill, and it's also staying the same with the new bill because cook county isn't impacted.

Property tax rates in Chicago aren't as bad as in Milwaukee, though. I pay the same rate here in the city as I did with my home in Waukesha County, and in Chicago I get sidewalks and street lights and choo choo trains.

[MU82]

Sad But True Dept.? A friend sent me this:

[Goose]

Has anyone been following the housing market in FL closely? It looks like the inventory of homes for sale is growing at a pretty clip and some areas are seeing nice sized price reductions. It will be interesting to watch if other parts of the country see similar patterns. I realize FL saw a once in a lifetime housing boon, but virtually the whole country saw a rapid increase in pricing. I am watching FL closely because many felt the home prices in FL were immune to any real declines and there definitely is some downward movement in parts of the state.

[The Sultan]

Has anyone been following the housing market in FL closely? It looks like the inventory of homes for sale is growing at a pretty clip and some areas are seeing nice sized price reductions. It will be interesting to watch if other parts of the country see similar patterns. I realize FL saw a once in a lifetime housing boon, but virtually the whole country saw a rapid increase in pricing. I am watching FL closely because many felt the home prices in FL were immune to any real declines and there definitely is some downward movement in parts of the state.

I think homeowners insurance rates have a lot to do with that. Florida has become a pretty expensive place to live from that perspective.

[Hards Alumni]

Has anyone been following the housing market in FL closely? It looks like the inventory of homes for sale is growing at a pretty clip and some areas are seeing nice sized price reductions. It will be interesting to watch if other parts of the country see similar patterns. I realize FL saw a once in a lifetime housing boon, but virtually the whole country saw a rapid increase in pricing. I am watching FL closely because many felt the home prices in FL were immune to any real declines and there definitely is some downward movement in parts of the state.

History has shown that FL housing prices are the opposite of immune.  There's a lot of second homes there.

[Skatastrophy]

34% of boomers are dead already and that will continue to accelerate. Florida has one of the oldest populations in the united states, they will not have a stable population even if climate change wasn't a thing.

[lawdog77]

34% of boomers are dead already and that will continue to accelerate. Florida has one of the oldest populations in the united states, they will not have a stable population even if climate change wasn't a thing.

Actually,  Florida had the largest growth in child/teen population.

[Skatastrophy]

Actually,  Florida had the largest growth in child/teen population.

And top 3 in deaths per year.

Florida remains one of the oldest average pop states despite the elderly dying off and all of those kids.

And Florida's average age is increasing.

[lawdog77]

And top 3 in deaths per year.

Florida remains one of the oldest average pop states despite the elderly dying off and all of those kids.

And Florida's average age is increasing.

The average age is increasing everywhere. Florida is the state doing best to replace the dying.boomers.

[Pakuni]

Actually,  Florida had the largest growth in child/teen population.

But the governors want lots and lots of those kids on buses and planes north.

[The Sultan]

The average age is increasing everywhere.

Is that accurate?

[Lennys Tap]

Has anyone been following the housing market in FL closely? It looks like the inventory of homes for sale is growing at a pretty clip and some areas are seeing nice sized price reductions. It will be interesting to watch if other parts of the country see similar patterns. I realize FL saw a once in a lifetime housing boon, but virtually the whole country saw a rapid increase in pricing. I am watching FL closely because many felt the home prices in FL were immune to any real declines and there definitely is some downward movement in parts of the state.

Goose
No area is immune from price declines in its real estate. Florida's recent boom is due for (and already in the early stages) of a correction. Florida is a big state, though, and some areas are less vulnerable. Places where all cash/no mortgage are the rule won't (imo) suffer as much as others.

[lawdog77]

Is that accurate?

only North Dakota saw its average age decline since 2010.

[Skatastrophy]

Boomers have dipped to ~20% of the population but still account for 38% (!!!) of this country's home ownership, so their impending demise will free up a lot of real estate.

Due do the death rate, Gen X is expected surpass the boomers as a % of US pop in ~2028. We'll see if that model holds up, though. Over 65 died to covid a lot, and most of those who died to covid are the unvaccindated, obese, sick, etc. Basically the intersection of the physically infirm and the stupid. That might actually reduce the death rate of those over 65 since the herd has already been thinned.

[The Sultan]

Goose
No area is immune from price declines in its real estate. Florida's recent boom is due for (and already in the early stages) of a correction. Florida is a big state, though, and some areas are less vulnerable. Places where all cash/no mortgage are the rule won't (imo) suffer as much as others.

The areas with the largest increases in housing on the market though has been in areas like Naples, Cape Coral and Sarasota. I'm not sure this proves or disproves your point but I think there are a lot of people with second homes that are exiting the market.

[Skatastrophy]

The areas with the largest increases in housing on the market though has been in areas like Naples, Cape Coral and Sarasota. I'm not sure this proves or disproves your point but I think there are a lot of people with second homes that are exiting the market.

Naples metro is 30% seniors
Cape Coral metro is 27% seniors
Sarasota is 30% seniors

Significantly higher than the state's already very high 19% of population over 65.

I don't know if I'm right, I just think Florida is an interesting animal in real estate with the old folks churn.

[JWags85]

The areas with the largest increases in housing on the market though has been in areas like Naples, Cape Coral and Sarasota. I'm not sure this proves or disproves your point but I think there are a lot of people with second homes that are exiting the market.

We're actually looking to make the move to Sarasota in the next 18-24 months, so we've been watching the market closely.  And the increase was absolutely insane.  TONS of places that sold for for 5-600K a few years ago that are listed/recently sold in the $1.5-2MM range.  I selfishly hope for a solid correction there, but even rationally, nothing about the run up in prices seemed normal or sustainable.

[dgies9156]

Goose:

Florida has some of the most cyclical real estate prices in the known universe. Period.

At the last real estate bust, 2008, our county (Indian River, located 70 miles north of Palm Beach and 60 miles south of the Space Center) had enough bankrupt real estate developments to make any self-respecting developer blush. Everywhere, there was vacant land that had been prepped for development but stopped cold as prices fell and demand went non-existent. We bought at the end of that cycle on a barrier island 1/4 mile from the Atlantic Ocean.

At the time, we bought a 2,800 square foot house, which we sold at nearly 2.5x what we paid for it after eight years. We sold our Illinois home and consolidated in Indian River County. We rent when we go back to Chicago.

Now, all of those 2008 bankruptcies have been acquired and filled in. Houses that sold in the $300,000s ten years ago are now selling for $1 million or more. And those have not cooled off yet because, as one poster noted, much of our market is cash purchases. New construction on our island in some cases is going for as much as $60 million if you're on the ocean. Off the island, prices are comparatively modest ($350,000 and up). Our community benefits from having a large number of millionaires here and heavy philanthropy. It also benefits from not being Miami, Palm Beach or Orlando.

If you're close to the ocean, the price for a home is at a premium. Further inland and things are more modest. Get out near Interstate 95 and things are downright affordable.

Finally, for those of you who ridicule us, so what if our state has a lot of boomers? We are growing like mad down here and that's not ALL old people. Folks of all ages come here because the climate is really nice eight months of the year and tolerable 10 months. Our state fosters economic growth, even if our governor, in his rodent control effort, took on the state's largest private sector employer. Our taxes are reasonable and our government services actually aren't bad. Now, if we could do something about our crappy healthcare in Indian River County!

[Skatastrophy]

I don't think that reality is ridicule. Florida's population is more elderly than most of the united states, and the real estate is largely held by the elderly, so Florida should see outsized effects of the boomers aging.

The boomers aren't interesting because they're old, but because there are so many of them compared to other generations that their inevitable die-off will be really interesting to watch. Specifically in Florida.

Or I'm wrong.

Nothing against boomers, but it's an interesting market effect in the next 20-25 years.

[MU82]

We're actually looking to make the move to Sarasota in the next 18-24 months, so we've been watching the market closely.  And the increase was absolutely insane.  TONS of places that sold for for 5-600K a few years ago that are listed/recently sold in the $1.5-2MM range.  I selfishly hope for a solid correction there, but even rationally, nothing about the run up in prices seemed normal or sustainable.

During the Great Recession, we were looking at some areas of Florida and you could get nice 2 BR condos in Sarasota for under $200K. I wish I had the foresight (and cash) back then to have bought a few of those!

[dgies9156]

Brother Skatastrophy:

I get it and while I think there will be an interesting dynamic as we die off, somehow I think Florida will survive. The Xers are much small but the millennials will start to age and come on down too!

This is a state that thrives on growth. That's why I'm less worried than if we were, say, Iowa, which also is old.

[rocky_warrior]

The Xers are much small

Bro, projection. lol.

I've got some millennial friends moving from a "fancy" neighborhood in Portland (OR) going to (Memphis) Tennessee.  They're about to sell a $800-900k (small) place that I helped fix up.  Will buy much bigger or lower (price) in Memphis.  Smart folks and all.