Defense

[rocky_warrior]

In the thread about replacing Novak, MUCrisco brought up the two areas he thought we needed improvement - defense and rebounding.  Indeed, the early analysis seems to indicate scoring options are aplenty this year.  Also, as I pointed out yesterday, we basically need 5 guys to add 3 points to their average to replace Novak - which I think will happen easily if the team runs as much as planned.

So, to focus on defense today (maybe rebounding tomorrow...), I actually think we upgrade almost every position with defense this year.  James will get better by guarding the super quick Acker in practice.  Matthews should be able to show more athleticism now that he's fully recovered and has a year under his belt.  McNeal...well he was already good - just has to watch the fouls.  Seems that either Fitz or Hayward are going to be defensive improvements over Novak - who had improved his senior year. 

The 5 spot is probably my biggest concern.  Barro still had a propensity for fouling last year.  Grimm was the physical "stopper" - not sure Kinsella can do the same.  Based on the fact that seniors have usually stepped up under Crean, I think Lott (at the 4 or 5) and Kinsella (again, 4 or 5) could surprise me.  Then again, I've had high expectations for Kinsella from the beginning, but had to lower them with all the injuries.  Then I don't know what to make of Burke or Blackledge yet.  I think Blackledge could add an interesting defensive twist to our "typical" frontcourt if he gets playing time.

Other's thoughts?  I think defense will be improved over last year, which is definitely a good thing.

[LastWarrior]

Also, as I pointed out yesterday, we basically need 5 guys to add 3 points to their average to replace Novak - which I think will happen easily if the team runs as much as planned.

In past interviews, Crean has expressed a desire to increase our scoring this year.  I wanna say by about 10 pts a game.  That said, we'd then need 5 guys to increase their scoring by 5 pts each.  Not a stretch but definitely not a sure thing.

I do think that with our speed, our defense will be more pressure oriented this year.  We've got so much speed and athleticism that I think we'll run more on offense and press more on defense.  We'll definitely have some excitement this year!!  I'm not a basketball x's and o's guy but if we run more presses, do need need to rely as much on the bigs for defense?  I think our big men will be fast enough to outrun many of the Big East 4's & 5's down the court and be able to set up defensive position and control the paint. 

To your point, our bigs will need to be careful to avoid the stupid fouls from poor block attempts.  The thing that irritates more than anything in basketball is when you try to foul a guy to prevent an easy basket but you don't foul him hard enough to stop him from scoring and attempting a three point play.

[WashDCWarrior]

Having watched the scrimmages (not live) from MM and HH, I agree that scoring will be up 10 pts a game this year.  What that means is that our opponents will have that many more possessions as well.  That makes each player's 5 fouls that much more valuable, because if a player typically commits a foul every 10 defensive possesions, they may typically not foul out in a 72 pt game but might in an 82 pt game.  This worries me expecially with McNeal and Barro, who have a tendency to grab for the ball a lot.  Nothing from the schrimmages leads me to believe that this will be different to start the season.  Therefore, I see both of their minutes being slightly lower than one might expect.  Last year McNeal was 27.5 mpg, and I see that decreasing some to about 25.  Barro was at 13.5 mpg, which will increase, but to about 20, not 25.

On the flip side, we will be getting to line much more than last year, considering our faster pace and Novak being gone.  I'd love us to improve that FT average to around 80%.  Especially James.

[WashDCWarrior]

LastWarrior and Rocky Warrior got me thinking a little about the planned offensive production increase this year vs. last.  Assuming 84 ppg is a goal, how do you envision the scoring distribution to look?  Last year, the team averaged 75.0 points per game.  The total of the individual players scoring was 80.3.  The difference was due to players not seeing the floor in evergame.  (i.e. Matthews and Amoroso had significant contributions when they played, but didn't see action in a number of games)  Assuming last year's ratio of 80.3:75.0, our players averages need to total 90.0 for us to score 84 ppg.

Here's my prediction.  Thoughts? (last year's ppg in parenthesis)

James 19 (15.3)
Matthews 15 (9.0)
McNeal 14 (11.1)
Fitz 9 (5.3)
Hayward 7
Barro 7 (4.4)
Cubillan 5
Kinsella 5(1.2)
Lott 4 (3.1)
Blackledge 3
Burke 1.5 (0.8)
Brice 0.5 (0.0)

[WashDCWarrior]

No need to point out the irony a taking a thread entitled DEFENSE into an offensive production discussion.

[Big Papi]

I don't know if anyone else has the luxury but I had Tivo'd the Alabama game last year and have watched it numerous times.  We made our initial big run when Novak was on the bench with an aggressive, pressure defense that caused havoc against a team that was extremely athletic and talented albeit not very deep.  I see us playing that type of style all year long.  If anyone gets the chance, I highly recommend them watching the second half of that game.

[WashDCWarrior]

Is there anyway you can upload it to this site?

[LastWarrior]

I don't know if anyone else has the luxury but I had Tivo'd the Alabama game last year and have watched it numerous times.  We made our initial big run when Novak was on the bench with an aggressive, pressure defense that caused havoc against a team that was extremely athletic and talented albeit not very deep.  I see us playing that type of style all year long.  If anyone gets the chance, I highly recommend them watching the second half of that game.

uuggghhh... I never saw that game.  My wife and I were on a flight to Southern Cal hoping MU would win and we'd be able to catch the second game.  After the loss, I could never bare the pain of watching it... 

[rocky_warrior]

Is there anyway you can upload it to this site?

That would be a NO

check your messages.

[rocky_warrior]

Here's my prediction.  Thoughts? (last year's ppg in parenthesis)

James 19 (15.3)
Matthews 15 (9.0)
McNeal 14 (11.1)
Fitz 9 (5.3)
Hayward 7
Barro 7 (4.4)
Cubillan 5
Kinsella 5(1.2)
Lott 4 (3.1)
Blackledge 3
Burke 1.5 (0.8)
Brice 0.5 (0.0)

Way to change the topic 

I think your numbers for Fitz/Hayward combined is about right (16pts), but depending on the game either one may have more or less.  I think Kinsella and Barro are gonna' be good for about 15/game combined.  I know Cubillan can shoot, but for some reason I'm expecting him to be more of the playmaker and less of a scorer this year.  That one I might be completely wrong about.  Well, it's highly likely I'm going to be wrong about everyone!

[bheitz]

The 5 spot is probably my biggest concern.  Barro still had a propensity for fouling last year.  Grimm was the physical "stopper" - not sure Kinsella can do the same.  Based on the fact that seniors have usually stepped up under Crean, I think Lott (at the 4 or 5) and Kinsella (again, 4 or 5) could surprise me.  Then again, I've had high expectations for Kinsella from the beginning, but had to lower them with all the injuries.  Then I don't know what to make of Burke or Blackledge yet.  I think Blackledge could add an interesting defensive twist to our "typical" frontcourt if he gets playing time.

I'm cautiously optimistic about Kinsella this year.  He's starting the year healthy and it looks like he's put on a bit of muscle.  What makes me optimistic is thinking back to the ND game last year.  Kinsella put in some very good minutes against Francis -- more than held his own and had a couple of blocks.  If he can consistently put in minutes of that caliber MU should be fine at the 5.

I think Blackledge will be effective flying in from the weak side or coming off his man and swatting shots into the first couple of rows.

[Big Papi]

The 5 spot is probably my biggest concern.  Barro still had a propensity for fouling last year.  Grimm was the physical "stopper" - not sure Kinsella can do the same.  Based on the fact that seniors have usually stepped up under Crean, I think Lott (at the 4 or 5) and Kinsella (again, 4 or 5) could surprise me.  Then again, I've had high expectations for Kinsella from the beginning, but had to lower them with all the injuries.  Then I don't know what to make of Burke or Blackledge yet.  I think Blackledge could add an interesting defensive twist to our "typical" frontcourt if he gets playing time.

I'm cautiously optimistic about Kinsella this year.  He's starting the year healthy and it looks like he's put on a bit of muscle.  What makes me optimistic is thinking back to the ND game last year.  Kinsella put in some very good minutes against Francis -- more than held his own and had a couple of blocks.  If he can consistently put in minutes of that caliber MU should be fine at the 5.

I think between Barro, Kinsella, Lott, Hayward and Fitzgerald that we can man the 4/5 position fairly well as we have a lot of flexibility.