2024 NCAA Tournament Bracketology

[MUDPT]

Greenville got the site late after a political correctness reassignment which actually screwed Duke more. But the MU game was 90% Gamecocks. There was something with Davidson's low seed too in Lexington where they got a 14.

As to the location assignments, this is why I stress the importance of winning games in conference and BET. It makes it hard for the selection committee to put MU into a worse location, especially with Kansas and the B1G champion always getting our preferred geography.

The NCAA considers the Big East east (remembering MU was the first BET champion west of Pittsburgh).

Greenville got the site late after a political correctness reassignment which actually screwed Duke more. But the MU game was 90% Gamecocks. There was something with Davidson's low seed too in Lexington where they got a 14.

As to the location assignments, this is why I stress the importance of winning games in conference and BET. It makes it hard for the selection committee to put MU into a worse location, especially with Kansas and the B1G champion always getting our preferred geography.

The NCAA considers the Big East east (remembering MU was the first BET champion west of Pittsburgh).

I was wondering if this is why Lunardi was placing us in Pittsburgh instead of Omaha.

[The Hippie Satan of Hyperbole]

Greenville got the site late after a political correctness reassignment which actually screwed Duke more. But the MU game was 90% Gamecocks. There was something with Davidson's low seed too in Lexington where they got a 14.

As to the location assignments, this is why I stress the importance of winning games in conference and BET. It makes it hard for the selection committee to put MU into a worse location, especially with Kansas and the B1G champion always getting our preferred geography.

The NCAA considers the Big East east (remembering MU was the first BET champion west of Pittsburgh).

What do you mean "considers the Big East east?" I didn't think conference affiliation had anything to do with placement any longer.

[TallTitan34]

I mean, complaining about BYU and playing Washington in San Jose? Or Utah State anywhere?

I agree you should be able to handle Utah State anywhere but I just would like to note that Utah State crowd was the most hostile crowd I've ever seen in person at a Marquette game. 

[The Hippie Satan of Hyperbole]

I agree you should be able to handle Utah State anywhere but I just would like to note that Utah State crowd was the most hostile crowd I've ever seen in person at a Marquette game. 

Well, The Legend was coaching that game.

[Newsdreams]

The committee hates MU, like Muggs said let's get rid of them. Introduce them to darkness.

[MarquetteMike1977]

I agree you should be able to handle Utah State anywhere but I just would like to note that Utah State crowd was the most hostile crowd I've ever seen in person at a Marquette game.

Agree was at that Big Dance NCAA Marquette Utah State game in Boise

Marquette's free throws throw off Utah State
Lazar Hayward scored 26 points and Marquette made 10 straight free throws down the stretch to hold off Utah State
58-57 Friday in the first round of the West Regional.

[MarquetteMike1977]

Joe Lunardi ESPN on Thursday February 22nd had Marquette as #7 on his S Curve and a #2 Seed in the Midwest Region

[MarquetteMike1977]

ESPN Bracketology Updated Friday February 23rd by Joe Lunardi. Marquette is listed as a Pod 2 Seed playing 15 Seed Morehead State in Indianapolis. With the winner playing the winner of 7 Seed Washington State and 10 Seed Northwestern In the Midwest Detroit Region.

[HowardsWorld]

ESPN Bracketology Updated Friday February 23rd by Joe Lunardi. Marquette is listed as a Pod 2 Seed playing 15 Seed Morehead State in Indianapolis. With the winner playing the winner of 7 Seed Washington State and 10 Seed Northwestern In the Midwest Detroit Region.

I take these worth a grain of salt. 7 seed Washington state after beating Arizona on the road. Sure

[The Thing]

Great, another Big 10 matchup in round 2? The committee hates us and knows Shaka can't beat Big 10 teams (except Illinois)

[MUFC9295]

Pretty solid 2 at present.  With 5 left + BET, can we sneak onto the 1 line?   Win out and BET final appearance?

[wadesworld]

Pretty solid 2 at present.  With 5 left + BET, can we sneak onto the 1 line?   Win out and BET final appearance?

Would be a very good chance of a 1.  But I don't see that happening.  I think we likely lose at least 2 more games (including the BET) and wind up with a 2 seed.

[brewcity77]

Pretty solid 2 at present.  With 5 left + BET, can we sneak onto the 1 line?   Win out and BET final appearance?

I don't think that would do it. We need a conference title to get there. Whether that means sharing with UConn (beat them at home and get some help) or winning the Big East Tourney.

With Arizona's loss, while they might still be on the 1-line now, I suspect they will get passed by UNC or Tennessee. Marquette could also get there, but I think it will take hardware. Our metrics alone aren't good enough and the Selection Committee has indicated the past two years they really reward conference champs more than their guidelines indicate.

[1SE]

Could a 9-11 OSU team likely steal a spot from one of our BE Bubble Boys? Or how far would they have to go in the BTT? Not in many brackets now or even bubble watches, but 3Q1A wins and NET in the 50s would probably end up being a pretty comparable resume to Prov or or SH.

[wadesworld]

I don't think that would do it. We need a conference title to get there. Whether that means sharing with UConn (beat them at home and get some help) or winning the Big East Tourney.

With Arizona's loss, while they might still be on the 1-line now, I suspect they will get passed by UNC or Tennessee. Marquette could also get there, but I think it will take hardware. Our metrics alone aren't good enough and the Selection Committee has indicated the past two years they really reward conference champs more than their guidelines indicate.

I think the top seeds got "hardware" because usually the 4 top teams in the country are the best teams in their country.  I find it hard to believe the Selection Committee saw Houston's winning the AAC or Gonzaga's winning the WCC as a big point of emphasis.

If Duke wins the ACC and someone other than UNC wins the conference tournament, WSU wins the Pac 12 regular season and someone other than AZ wins the tournament, Bama wins the SEC and someone other than TN wins the tournament, and Purdue, Houston, and UCONN all win their conference regular season and tournament titles, I don't think you're going to see one of WSU, Bama, Duke, or some mid major conference winner getting a 1 seed.

[MarquetteMike1977]

ESPN Bracketology Updated Tuesday February 27th by Joe Lunardi. Marquette is listed as a Pod 2 Seed playing 15 Seed Sam Houston in Indianapolis. With the winner playing the winner of 7 Seed Texas Tech and 10 Seed Nevada In the Midwest Detroit Region.

[TallTitan34]

Could a 9-11 OSU team likely steal a spot from one of our BE Bubble Boys? Or how far would they have to go in the BTT? Not in many brackets now or even bubble watches, but 3Q1A wins and NET in the 50s would probably end up being a pretty comparable resume to Prov or or SH.

Seton Hall is 11-5 in a better conference.

[brewcity77]

I think the top seeds got "hardware" because usually the 4 top teams in the country are the best teams in their country.  I find it hard to believe the Selection Committee saw Houston's winning the AAC or Gonzaga's winning the WCC as a big point of emphasis.

If Duke wins the ACC and someone other than UNC wins the conference tournament, WSU wins the Pac 12 regular season and someone other than AZ wins the tournament, Bama wins the SEC and someone other than TN wins the tournament, and Purdue, Houston, and UCONN all win their conference regular season and tournament titles, I don't think you're going to see one of WSU, Bama, Duke, or some mid major conference winner getting a 1 seed.

Last year on Selection Sunday, Baylor had a better predictive average, better resume average, more Q1A wins, and more Q1 wins than Marquette. They had more losses, but all were in Q1 while Marquette had a Q3 loss. Yet Marquette was a 2-seed and Baylor a 3 and the Selection Committee chair specifically cited Marquette's double Big East championships.

At the reveal this year, UNC was ahead of Tennessee and Marquette, though the broad consensus was that UNC was going to be 7th on the S-Curve. But at the time, UNC was the only one of those three teams leading their conference.

San Diego State was widely considered to be a 5-seed going into the Reveal, yet they were not only on the 4-line, but were at #14, well ahead of where pretty much anyone had them. What did they have that teams like Clemson, Illinois, and Wisconsin, all of whom were generally considered to be ahead of the Aztecs, but the Aztecs were leading a conference projected to get 5-6 bids.

I'm not saying that's the only factor. WSU isn't going to jump ahead of teams with clearly superior resumes. But if it's close, like it was for Baylor and Marquette, or like it was for UNC, Tennessee, and Marquette, I absolutely, 100% think it will make a difference and we have clear data to back that up.

[FairWeatherEagle]

We need to win our for the 1 including the BET.

But the low 1 vs the high 2 not really material. It would just be nice to be there.

What in trying to figure out is how does the BE get 6-7 teams in (without MU losing of course😁). Is there a reasonable path? Someone has to lose?

[MuggsyB]

ESPN Bracketology Updated Tuesday February 27th by Joe Lunardi. Marquette is listed as a Pod 2 Seed playing 15 Seed Sam Houston in Indianapolis. With the winner playing the winner of 7 Seed Texas Tech and 10 Seed Nevada In the Midwest Detroit Region.

Sign me up for that draw. 

[Galway Eagle]

We need to win our for the 1 including the BET.

But the low 1 vs the high 2 not really material. It would just be nice to be there.

What in trying to figure out is how does the BE get 6-7 teams in (without MU losing of course😁). Is there a reasonable path? Someone has to lose?

Guessing

Butler over X SJU & and DePaul may get them in with the away wins at MU & Creighton

X probs needs to win BE tournament.

SJU obviously needs to not throw away a game against GTown or DPU to even have an outside shot.

SH and PC don't crap away anything, I think they're all in.

Can't decide on Nova.

[brewcity77]

We need to win our for the 1 including the BET.

But the low 1 vs the high 2 not really material. It would just be nice to be there.

What in trying to figure out is how does the BE get 6-7 teams in (without MU losing of course😁). Is there a reasonable path? Someone has to lose?

Hmm...without Marquette losing...let's see...

• UConn - locked in, so losing all three would be beneficial. But reality is they probably at least beat SHU at home. Let's say they go 1-2, beating SHU and losing at Marquette and Providence. Still a likely 1-seed.
  
• Marquette - You said without us losing, so going 4-0, coupled with the UConn loss at Providence gives us a shared title and the 1-seed in the BET. 1-seed once we also win the BET.
  
• Creighton - They're not going to lose out, but we'll give them a win over SHU at home, then lose to Marquette and lose at 'Nova. Still probably a 4-6 seed.
  
• Seton Hall - If they're losing to UConn and Creighton, they need to beat 'Nova and DePaul. Getting to 20 wins with two wins over 1-seeds will probably get them in, though it may be Dayton.
  
• Providence - Lose at Marquette, lose to 'Nova, beat Georgetown and UConn. That last one would probably punch their ticket. Bubbly, maybe Dayton, but in.
  
• Villanova - Wins over Providence and Creighton, even with the loss to Seton Hall, will have them right on the bubble. They would be advised not to take a bad loss in their BET opener, because that last bad impression on Wednesday can hurt, but they'll be right there.
  
• Butler - St. John's beating Creighton at home was nice and all, but if Butler can beat the Johnnies and win out, they have the better case thanks to their awesome road wins. If there's a 7th bid, it's them and not the Johnnies.

I'd give a scenario for an 8th bid, but you said "without Marquette losing" so no one else can get the BET, sorry Xavier and white suit Rick Pitino.

[wisblue]

The Baylor vs Marquette placement last year had the extra factor of the lopsided head to head game.

In a final scrubbing with MU and Baylor sitting in the 8 and 9 slots, that head to head game might have been a factor in addition to the conference championships.

[HowardsWorld]

We need to win our for the 1 including the BET.

But the low 1 vs the high 2 not really material. It would just be nice to be there.

What in trying to figure out is how does the BE get 6-7 teams in (without MU losing of course😁). Is there a reasonable path? Someone has to lose?

I just don't see winning out in the BET to be a factor. If we go 4-0 to close the year they are going to be at minimum the final 1 seed heading into the conference tournament. Then based on what others do and who they beat but the thing working against an Arizona or North Carolina is that there are no resume building teams to beat. If Arizona loses another game before the tournament I believe they will be eliminated from contention. North Carolina will lose to Duke and eliminate them as well. Its going to come down to Tennesee and Marquette.

[Its DJOver]

I just don't see winning out in the BET to be a factor. If we go 4-0 to close the year they are going to be at minimum the final 1 seed heading into the conference tournament. Then based on what others do and who they beat but the thing working against an Arizona or North Carolina is that there are no resume building teams to beat. If Arizona loses another game before the tournament I believe they will be eliminated from contention. North Carolina will lose to Duke and eliminate them as well. Its going to come down to Tennesee and Marquette.

You continue to get this backwards no matter how many times it's explained to you, MU games do not occur in a vacuum.  There's a chance that 4-0 would put us there, but it is not a "at a minimum" situation.  For example (again), if Tenn also goes 4-0 they would remain ahead of us.

It's also incredibly foolish IMO to talk about hypotheticals where you assume we go undefeated and also assume that other top teams will lose. Of course if we win out, and UNC/AZ rack up losses we'll jump them.