Bracketology Thread 2023

[MU82]

First day of the New Year ... let's get this going.

The Athletic's Brian Bennett released his first Bracket Watch (actually hit the site a couple days ago), and has Marquette as a 7-seed. Playing SD State in the first round. Tennessee would be the likely next opponent.

Only has 4 BEast teams: UConn, X, Marquette, Creighton. The Provi is among first 4 out.

https://theathletic.com/4038052/2022/12/30/ncaa-tournament-bracket-mock-predictions/?source=pulsenewsletter&campaign=5846288

Lunardi's most recent came out a few days before that, and he had MU as an 8-seed.

https://www.espn.com/espn/feature/story/_/page/bracketology/ncaa-bracketology-2023-march-madness-men-field-predictions

I think we've got a great chance to beat the projections of both Lunardi and Bennett.

[Milkshakes]

Let's keep winning and get out of that 8/9 seed game.   I really hope they have a good run and get a 6 seed (or better of course)

[DoctorV]

So what's the current consensus?

10 conference wins earns the bid?

Every win beyond that increases the seed.
10 would probably be in the play-in-game or 12/11 seed range.

13+ likely good enough to avoid that 8 seed line barring a first rd conf tourney exit.

15+ would likely earn a top 5 seed.

It always amazes me how much movement these wins or losses have as you get closer to the dance, assuming you manage to earn a bid.

[BLWarrior91]

First day of the New Year ... let's get this going.

The Athletic's Brian Bennett released his first Bracket Watch (actually hit the site a couple days ago), and has Marquette as a 7-seed. Playing SD State in the first round. Tennessee would be the likely next opponent.

Only has 4 BEast teams: UConn, X, Marquette, Creighton. The Provi is among first 4 out.

https://theathletic.com/4038052/2022/12/30/ncaa-tournament-bracket-mock-predictions/?source=pulsenewsletter&campaign=5846288

Lunardi's most recent came out a few days before that, and he had MU as an 8-seed.

https://www.espn.com/espn/feature/story/_/page/bracketology/ncaa-bracketology-2023-march-madness-men-field-predictions

I think we've got a great chance to beat the projections of both Lunardi and Bennett.

We always wind up with a higher seed than Lunardi has us at this time each year.  He gives us zero respect so I have nine for him.

[MuggsyB]

So what's the current consensus?

10 conference wins earns the bid?

Every win beyond that increases the seed.
10 would probably be in the play-in-game or 12/11 seed range.

13+ likely good enough to avoid that 8 seed line barring a first rd conf tourney exit.

15+ would likely earn a top 5 seed.

It always amazes me how much movement these wins or losses have as you get closer to the dance, assuming you manage to earn a bid.

If we get 10 wins and two of them are against UCONN and XU?  Maybe I'm leaning towards 12 BEast wins. 

[BM1090]

11-9 would do it. Won't matter though, this team is better than that.

7 seed at Bracketville before yesterday's win.

https://bracketville.wordpress.com/bracketology/

[Newsdreams]

11-9 would do it. Won't matter though, this team is better than that.

7 seed at Bracketville before yesterday's win.

https://bracketville.wordpress.com/bracketology/

Yes, 10 could be trouble

[Uncle Rico]

Yes, 10 could be trouble

We'll never beat a 10-seed

[brewcity77]

So what's the current consensus?

10 conference wins earns the bid?

Every win beyond that increases the seed.
10 would probably be in the play-in-game or 12/11 seed range.

13+ likely good enough to avoid that 8 seed line barring a first rd conf tourney exit.

15+ would likely earn a top 5 seed.

It always amazes me how much movement these wins or losses have as you get closer to the dance, assuming you manage to earn a bid.

We need 11-12 to feel secure, though with the Big East, ACC, Pac-12, and A-10 all down the bubble looks very weak. Three problem with 10 wins is that also means 10 losses, and games against Georgetown, DePaul, St John's, Seton Hall, and Butler are shaping up to be potentially bad losses. Selection is more about who you beat, so you can weather a couple of those, but to truly feel safe I think 9-1 against those 5 should be the goal. Which gets us to at least 11.

[HowardsWorld]

Theres a lot of talk in this thread as if we are a sub par team battling to get in by the skin of our teeth. This team is going to be battling for a 3-4 seed in the ncaa tournament. This isnt your steve wojo coached team. I fully expect this team to go undefeated at home in conference including beating xavier and uconn. Maybe I am biased but this team is a top 15 team in the country and its not really close either. This team would blast the majority of teams ranked 15-25 in the polls.

[tower912]

You're biased.     I think this is probably a 12-13 conference win team.   Lose 3/4 to X and UConn.   Do well against the rest.   Occasional stumble.  20-21 regular season wins gets MU to fringe top 25 and 5-6-7 seed.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

Theres a lot of talk in this thread as if we are a sub par team battling to get in by the skin of our teeth. This team is going to be battling for a 3-4 seed in the ncaa tournament. This isnt your steve wojo coached team. I fully expect this team to go undefeated at home in conference including beating xavier and uconn. Maybe I am biased but this team is a top 15 team in the country and its not really close either. This team would blast the majority of teams ranked 15-25 in the polls.

I'm very bullish on this team but it's going to be hard to get to a 4 seed or higher. Our non-conference was solid but not amazing. The Big East is very down and there aren't that many signature wins to be had. UConn x2, @Creighton, and @X are really the only 4 signature win opportunities left on our schedule. I think we would need to win 3 of 4 of these AND go 9-3 or better in the remaining games to get to the 4 seed line. Certainly possible but it's a very tall ask.

[Goose]

TAMU

That is a very big ask and I am not betting on getting 3 of 4 in those games. I would be very happy to get two wins and think that is a tough ask. IMO, they need to avoid a bad loss and take care of business at home. I would love to see them be a four seed but think it would take an awful lot to make that happen. There is a lot of basketball to be played and taking care of the games they should win is top priority. Good news, beating UConn, X or Creighton would not be stealing one, just a good win. To me, that is the key, we are getting very close to being over the hump and putting "steal a game" mindset in the rearview mirror.

[brewcity77]

I'm very bullish on this team but it's going to be hard to get to a 4 seed or higher. Our non-conference was solid but not amazing. The Big East is very down and there aren't that many signature wins to be had. UConn x2, @Creighton, and @X are really the only 4 signature win opportunities left on our schedule. I think we would need to win 3 of 4 of these AND go 9-3 or better in the remaining games to get to the 4 seed line. Certainly possible but it's a very tall ask.

11-9 likely gets us in. That's probably a 10-seed. Safe, but not spectacular. Each additional win is probably a seed line. So getting to a 4 means going 15-5 or 16-4. Not impossible, but a lofty goal. 3 is probably the ceiling if we win the Big East.

[The Lens]

We're 3-1 & ppl are talking about 10 or 11 conf wins.  Lol.

Wojo ruined us.

[Goose]

The Lens

They need to keep winning and hopefully that changes the narrative with some fans. Too many are used to MU not getting the job done and it poisoned their perspective.

[MUfan12]

They need to keep winning and hopefully that changes the narrative with some fans. Too many are used to MU not getting the job done and it poisoned their perspective.

With how the last few February's have gone I don't blame people for remaining cautiously optimistic.

[Goose]

MUfan12

I have seen over 50 Februarys of MU basketball, some great, very good, good, bad and ugly, and the last few Februarys mean nothing to me. I am fine with people being cautious or even negative, I just happen to think differently. That is why I said they needed to keep winning to get the cautious fan to jump on the bandwagon.

[Juan Anderson's Mixtape]

10 wins = squarely on the bubble (Dayton or NIT)

11 wins = 10 seed (avoid Dayton 1st Four)

12 wins = 8/9 game

13 wins = 7 seed

14 wins = 6 seed

I'm thinking 13 or 14 wins.  12 would be a mild disappointment.

[muwarrior69]

MUfan12

I have seen over 50 Februarys of MU basketball, some great, very good, good, bad and ugly, and the last few Februarys mean nothing to me. I am fine with people being cautious or even negative, I just happen to think differently. That is why I said they needed to keep winning to get the cautious fan to jump on the bandwagon.

If I recall the February of 77 was pretty bad/ugly. March not so much.

[Jockey]

First day of the New Year ... let's get this going.

The Athletic's Brian Bennett released his first Bracket Watch (actually hit the site a couple days ago), and has Marquette as a 7-seed. Playing SD State in the first round. Tennessee would be the likely next opponent.

Only has 4 BEast teams: UConn, X, Marquette, Creighton. The Provi is among first 4 out.

I think the BE gets more than 4 teams in. In fact, I think 6 is much more likely than 4.

[MuMark]

We're 3-1 & ppl are talking about 10 or 11 conf wins.  Lol.

Wojo ruined us.

It's interesting that our most similar efficiency profile to this season? 2017 Marquette

https://barttorvik.com/profile-compare.php?team=Marquette&year=2023&cov=1&o=4&d=4&tt=4&efg_w=1&oreb_w=1&tov_w=1&ftr_w=1&defg_w=1&doreb_w=1&dtov_w=1&dftr_w=1&threerate_w=1&talent_w=1&exp_w=1&ht_w=1

[MarquetteDano]

It's interesting that our most similar efficiency profile to this season? 2017 Marquette

https://barttorvik.com/profile-compare.php?team=Marquette&year=2023&cov=1&o=4&d=4&tt=4&efg_w=1&oreb_w=1&tov_w=1&ftr_w=1&defg_w=1&doreb_w=1&dtov_w=1&dftr_w=1&threerate_w=1&talent_w=1&exp_w=1&ht_w=1

On that list, let's hope we are more similar to UCLA 2014 or Duke 2013, which got to the Sweet Sixteen (UCLA) and Elite Eight (Duke).

[MU82]

It's interesting that our most similar efficiency profile to this season? 2017 Marquette

https://barttorvik.com/profile-compare.php?team=Marquette&year=2023&cov=1&o=4&d=4&tt=4&efg_w=1&oreb_w=1&tov_w=1&ftr_w=1&defg_w=1&doreb_w=1&dtov_w=1&dftr_w=1&threerate_w=1&talent_w=1&exp_w=1&ht_w=1

I really enjoyed watching that 2016-17 team. Lots of scoring threats, 2 really promising freshmen and some nice wins. Ultimately just not good enough.

[DoctorV]

We're 3-1 & ppl are talking about 10 or 11 conf wins.  Lol.

Wojo ruined us.

Last years squad was on a trajectory to be a 6 seed or better in late January/early February.

Then it went 4-5 to finish the regular season, including losses at Butler and at DePaul. Then it lost to Creighton for the third time in NYC.
Then it lost by 100 points on the biggest stage to UNC.

Sure the previous guys finishes didn't help matters, but taking a not-so-fast approach isn't only about Wojo.

I'll believe it when I see it.
In the meantime, get me a bid any way possible and a win in the dance and I'm good.