Big East Poll , NET Rankings and Team Sheets

[muwarrior69]

Big game at the Wachovia Center this morning.

I'd like to see Providence drop one today and drop to 8-3 because coach Ed and those guys have a lot of Moxie when it comes to getting big wins when they need them.

I'd like to see them drop further behind in the chase for the BE title.

As for NET purposes, Providence is currently at 34, 4 spots away from becoming a quad 1 win at home.
Nova is at 90, 15 spots away from the top 75 cutoff for a road Q1.

Their end of the season schedule is brutal
Providence, @MU, @Creighton next 3 and still have @Providence, @X, @SH, v Creighton and v UConn left.
That's an insane gauntlet to end the season for an already underachieving 10-10 Villanova squad.
Itll be tough to find a way to finish above .500 in Neptunes first season

Cannot believe they only played 9 conference games with 11 to go. Who ever made that schedule screwed them big time.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

Cannot believe they only played 9 conference games with 11 to go. Who ever made that schedule screwed them big time.

Or helped then but putting a many of them as delayed as possible so that Moore could play in as many games as possible

[Herman Cain]

Big East NET rankings as of games of January 29, 2023
New Old
7   7   UConn   
12   12   Marquette   
18   18   Creighton   
27   27   Xavier   
32   34   Providence   
57   58   Seton Hall   
87   86   St. John's
90   90   Villanova   
110   111   Butler
163   166   DePaul
241   245   Georgetown   
January 30 Team Sheets. MU is 12
https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2023/net-teamsheets-plus

[StillWarriors]

Exactly, a surprisingly fun jump on DePaul day.

Don't underestimate how clutch that 2H blowout was, a close win woulda cost MU a few spots

Surprised at the bump, as well. Strange in that I seem to recall that X did not drop or only dropped one when it lost at DePaul.

[Vander Blue Man Group]

Surprised at the bump, as well. Strange in that I seem to recall that X did not drop or only dropped one when it lost at DePaul.

I don't follow it closely enough but it might have been more due to the Miss St. win over TCU or other teams around us moving down or a combination of both. 

[UWW2MU]

Yep. margin of victory, especially compared to expectation, is a big thing with NET, unfortunately.

If people better understood the NET, it wouldn't be "unfortunate"

This is a case of correlation, not causation.   The NET is partly based on O and D efficiencies.  If you play better than your team's O/D efficiency rating, then you're going to improve your NET.    Similarly, "expected" margins in a game are often predicated on teams' analytics, aka their O/D efficiency ratings.  So if the analytics say it should be a 5 pt game b/c of the probabilities based on metrics, but one team plays better than their metrics, then you'll see a NET jump above the normal boost you'd get for the win/loss.

[DoctorV]

A simplified way to look at it is game lines/spreads.

Those usually mirror metrics data like KenPom.

If your team "covers the spread" and wins by more than Vegas predicted they would, the net improves. If your team is predicted to win by 15 and wins by 5, the net worsens

[Herman Cain]

Big East Poll Rankings January 30, 2023

AP
14. MU
16. X
17. Cooley & Company
24. U Conn
Others Receiving Votes:
Creighton

Coaches
12. MU
15. X
17. Cooley & Company
23. U Conn
Others Receiving Votes:
Creighton

[Oldgym]

Creighton will join this group soon enough, possibly next Monday, to the surprise of no one here.

[Galway Eagle]

Creighton will join this group soon enough, possibly next Monday, to the surprise of no one here.

Will UConn still be there?

[Oldgym]

Will UConn still be there?

A week from now? Yes. Two weeks out? Uncertain, the future is.

[wisblue]

Yep. margin of victory, especially compared to expectation, is a big thing with NET, unfortunately.

How would we know how big a thing it is? There are apparently so many things that go into the NET formula that, even though margin of victory in a particular game might be a factor, it might have minimal impact.

[wisblue]

If people better understood the NET, it wouldn't be "unfortunate"

This is a case of correlation, not causation.   The NET is partly based on O and D efficiencies.  If you play better than your team's O/D efficiency rating, then you're going to improve your NET.    Similarly, "expected" margins in a game are often predicated on teams' analytics, aka their O/D efficiency ratings.  So if the analytics say it should be a 5 pt game b/c of the probabilities based on metrics, but one team plays better than their metrics, then you'll see a NET jump above the normal boost you'd get for the win/loss.

Can you really say what makes a team's NET go up or down a couple of spaces without knowing the details of the formula that goes into it?

I assume that there is some complex formula that crunches a number of factors  and comes up with some kind of number with a few decimal places that might be called an "NET Index". Then the teams are ranked in order based on that index.

All we see is the NET ranking but not the index number that ranking is based on. it's inevitable that the gap between two teams ranked consecutively will not always be the same.

MU going up a few spots after last weekend suggests to me that the teams in the 12-16 range are pretty tightly bunched.

[PointWarrior]

If people better understood the NET, it wouldn't be "unfortunate"

This is a case of correlation, not causation.   The NET is partly based on O and D efficiencies.  If you play better than your team's O/D efficiency rating, then you're going to improve your NET.    Similarly, "expected" margins in a game are often predicated on teams' analytics, aka their O/D efficiency ratings.  So if the analytics say it should be a 5 pt game b/c of the probabilities based on metrics, but one team plays better than their metrics, then you'll see a NET jump above the normal boost you'd get for the win/loss.

Are margin victory of early season games weighted less than games later in the season.   There can be a lot of surprising results (or bad predictions in early season games). 

[brewcity77]

We don't know the NET and we shouldn't. For years, no one knew exactly what went into RPI. Then it got figured out, we saw teams start to game the RPI system, and within a couple years it was completely broken. Not saying the RPI was ever the best answer, but once people could calculate it for themselves, it was borderline useless.

NET clearly weighs efficiency margins heavily. As past efficiency margins are generally the best predictor of future results that we have so far, I'm perfectly fine with that as the dominant metric. As we see the importance of non-NET resume metrics in selection and non-NET predictive metrics in seeding, it feels like the Selection Committee is willing to use the NET as a guideline and then bring in numerous other factors in decision making. I may not always agree with those decisions, but I feel the process that brings them about is generally sound.

It's better that we don't know the NET, and honestly, when I hear people like Terrence Oglesby crying "Clemson won and went down in the NET, the system stinks" it makes me want to cram a bullhorn in their eardrum and start screaming. Beat the teams you're supposed to be by the margins you're expected to win by and you'll stay where you're at. Beat them by more and you'll move up. Beat them by less and you'll move down. It really isn't that hard.

[lawdog77]

We don't know the NET and we shouldn't. For years, no one knew exactly what went into RPI. Then it got figured out, we saw teams start to game the RPI system, and within a couple years it was completely broken. Not saying the RPI was ever the best answer, but once people could calculate it for themselves, it was borderline useless.

NET clearly weighs efficiency margins heavily. As past efficiency margins are generally the best predictor of future results that we have so far, I'm perfectly fine with that as the dominant metric. As we see the importance of non-NET resume metrics in selection and non-NET predictive metrics in seeding, it feels like the Selection Committee is willing to use the NET as a guideline and then bring in numerous other factors in decision making. I may not always agree with those decisions, but I feel the process that brings them about is generally sound.

It's better that we don't know the NET, and honestly, when I hear people like Terrence Oglesby crying "Clemson won and went down in the NET, the system stinks" it makes me want to cram a bullhorn in their eardrum and start screaming. Beat the teams you're supposed to be by the margins you're expected to win by and you'll stay where you're at. Beat them by more and you'll move up. Beat them by less and you'll move down. It really isn't that hard.

It makes it sound like the NET is created by Vegas, not the NCAA.

[Newsdreams]

It makes it sound like the NET is created by Vegas, not the NCAA.

No Vegas now follows the NET, Kenpom

[lawdog77]

No Vegas now follows the NET, Kenpom

<tinfoil at on> that's what they want you to believe.

[Herman Cain]

Big East NET ranking as of games of January 30,2023
New Old
7   7   UConn   
11   12   Marquette   
18   18   Creighton   
27   27   Xavier   
32   32   Providence   
57   57   Seton Hall   
88   87   St. John's
90   90   Villanova   
110   110   Butler   
163   163   DePaul   
242   241   Georgetown   

January 31 Team Sheets . MU is 11
https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2023/net-teamsheets-plus

[MarquetteMike1977]

Thank You Herman 11 Nice!!

[brewcity77]

It makes it sound like the NET is created by Vegas, not the NCAA.

The NET is designed to determine the best teams. I have infinitely more faith in the NET doing that than a strict resume metric like RPI.

[UWW2MU]

Big East NET ranking as of games of January 30,2023
New Old
7   7   UConn   
11   12   Marquette   
18   18   Creighton   
27   27   Xavier   
32   32   Providence   
57   57   Seton Hall   
88   87   St. John's
90   90   Villanova   
110   110   Butler   
163   163   DePaul   
242   241   Georgetown   

January 31 Team Sheets . MU is 11
https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2023/net-teamsheets-plus

If anyone is interested in the official NCAA NET team sheets, see here:

https://stats.ncaa.org/selection_rankings/nitty_gritties/29868/teams/542200/team_sheet

https://stats.ncaa.org/selection_rankings/nitty_gritties/29868

There is a little more info on the Warren Nolan, but the NCAA shows future opponents and where they sit in the quadrants.

[Herman Cain]

Big East NET rankings as of games of January 31, 2023
New Old
8   7   UConn   
11   11   Marquette   
17   18   Creighton   
28   27   Xavier   
35   32   Providence   
57   57   Seton Hall   
87   88   St. John's
90   90   Villanova   
111   110   Butler   
163   163   DePaul   
243   242   Georgetown   

January 31 Team Sheets . MU is 11
https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2023/net-teamsheets-plus

[mugrad_89]

Big East NET rankings as of games of January 31, 2023
New Old
8   7   UConn   
11   11   Marquette   
17   18   Creighton   
28   27   Xavier   
35   32   Providence   
57   57   Seton Hall   
87   88   St. John's
90   90   Villanova   
111   110   Butler   
163   163   DePaul   
243   242   Georgetown   

January 31 Team Sheets . MU is 11
https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2023/net-teamsheets-plus

Lol - so after all the chatter about UConn staying at 7 despite losing several games, all it took was a win at DePaul to knock them down a spot.  😊

[Juan Anderson's Mixtape]

Lol - so after all the chatter abou7t UConn staying at 7 despite losing several games, all it took was a win at DePaul to knock them down a spot.  😊

In reality,  Kansas jumped Uconn. The Jayhawks beat Kansas State by 12, which is a much better win than UConn beating DePaul by 14.