Big East Poll , NET Rankings and Team Sheets

[The Hippie Satan of Hyperbole]

Its not that tempo doesn't matter, but tempo is not outcome determinative. Of course, on offense if you can get a shot early in the clock, usually the first 6 seconds, your efficiency on that shot is higher. Part of that is the simple notion that "fast break dunks are good" or an "open shot is a good shot".   And then the efficiency dips to a near constant level for the rest of the shot clock with a small uptick around 5 seconds left on the clock. (teams stop playing D late and the shot isn't rushed at the buzzer).

But the total game tempo has little to no relative correlation as to the results of Marquette Games, these are different things. Tempo is just a means to efficiency.

Purdue didn't beat Marquette because they forced them to play slow. They beat Marquette because they got higher quality shots. Edey made Tyler and Oso take runners and he got dunks and layups himself. Marquette out shot them 72 to 56, but MU took 25 midrange shots.

Mississippi St. didn't beat Marquette because they forced them to play slow. They beat Marquette because they got a higher volume of shots grabbing boards and Marquette fouled them on their attempts.

Wisconsin didn't beat Marquette because they forced them to play slow. They beat Marquette because, despite taking slightly worse shots than Marquette, Chucky just kept making shots.

Saying "tempo" plays a role in the outcome is just inaccurate. When Marquette beat Providence at home or won @Nova last year no one would say "Marquette won because Providence played slow".

There is not one example from last year where Marquette played a Big East Opponent for a second time and said Opponent was able to both slow Marquette down and flip the outcome of the first game. Anytime MU was slowed down from one game to the next the results were the same.

As for having an Alpha, I am of the opinion it just doesn't 100% matter. Having an Alpha vs playing like a team, or Iso Scoring vs assisted scoring, is additionally just another means to efficiency. Now the normative approach to basketball is to have an Alpha. It gets engrained when we are kids. So of course every team wants an Alpha, but you want to be able to do both.

I think this team can do both in some capacity. Our offense so far this year is just better than last years. Also, Kam, Joplin, and this years Kolek might be more creative than Morsell, Lewis, and last years Kolek. They shoot better from three, from two, and they find the open man better (maybe not Joplin for this one).

Again, noting the 1-9 away from home in their last ten is ridiculous. This year's team is 1-2 away from home with two top 5 NET losses. Last years team was 6-10 and finished 0-7 in their last 7. (part of that is the reason I would say this years team might have more alphas.)

As for Notre Dame themselves, why do they play slow. They play slow because they have too. They play 6 guys. They take their time on offense and defense just to be able to play for the entire game.

This is such a fantastic post.  Thank you.

[Herman Cain]

Big East NET rankings as of games December 8, 2022
New Old
2   2   UConn
32   31   Creighton   
42   42   Marquette   
44   44   Xavier   
60   58   Butler   
64   60   St. John's
116   122   Seton Hall   
127   128   Providence   
153   151   Villanova   
172   166   DePaul   
229   229   Georgetown   

[jfp61]

See attached

Correction: "total game tempo has little to no causation as to the results of Marquette Games"

Also look at last year

[UWW2MU]

Great post jfp61.   Nice breakdown and good follow up with the distinction that causation and correlation are ≠

[Elonsmusk]

Its not that tempo doesn't matter, but tempo is not outcome determinative. Of course, on offense if you can get a shot early in the clock, usually the first 6 seconds, your efficiency on that shot is higher. Part of that is the simple notion that "fast break dunks are good" or an "open shot is a good shot".   And then the efficiency dips to a near constant level for the rest of the shot clock with a small uptick around 5 seconds left on the clock. (teams stop playing D late and the shot isn't rushed at the buzzer).

But the total game tempo has little to no relative correlation as to the results of Marquette Games, these are different things. Tempo is just a means to efficiency.

Purdue didn't beat Marquette because they forced them to play slow. They beat Marquette because they got higher quality shots. Edey made Tyler and Oso take runners and he got dunks and layups himself. Marquette out shot them 72 to 56, but MU took 25 midrange shots.

Mississippi St. didn't beat Marquette because they forced them to play slow. They beat Marquette because they got a higher volume of shots grabbing boards and Marquette fouled them on their attempts.

Wisconsin didn't beat Marquette because they forced them to play slow. They beat Marquette because, despite taking slightly worse shots than Marquette, Chucky just kept making shots.

Saying "tempo" plays a role in the outcome is just inaccurate. When Marquette beat Providence at home or won @Nova last year no one would say "Marquette won because Providence played slow".

There is not one example from last year where Marquette played a Big East Opponent for a second time and said Opponent was able to both slow Marquette down and flip the outcome of the first game. Anytime MU was slowed down from one game to the next the results were the same.

As for having an Alpha, I am of the opinion it just doesn't 100% matter. Having an Alpha vs playing like a team, or Iso Scoring vs assisted scoring, is additionally just another means to efficiency. Now the normative approach to basketball is to have an Alpha. It gets engrained when we are kids. So of course every team wants an Alpha, but you want to be able to do both.

I think this team can do both in some capacity. Our offense so far this year is just better than last years. Also, Kam, Joplin, and this years Kolek might be more creative than Morsell, Lewis, and last years Kolek. They shoot better from three, from two, and they find the open man better (maybe not Joplin for this one).

Again, noting the 1-9 away from home in their last ten is ridiculous. This year's team is 1-2 away from home with two top 5 NET losses. Last years team was 6-10 and finished 0-7 in their last 7. (part of that is the reason I would say this years team might have more alphas.)

As for Notre Dame themselves, why do they play slow. They play slow because they have too. They play 6 guys. They take their time on offense and defense just to be able to play for the entire game.

Great post.  jfp61 is a Scoop MVP.

Dr. Blackheart also is a high quality poster.  Good discussion

[Dr. Blackheart]

https://syndication.bleacherreport.com/amp/1715228-kem-pomeroys-new-stat-affirms-that-quick-offense-is-good-offense.amp.html

[barfolomew]

Its not that tempo doesn't matter, but tempo is not outcome determinative. Of course, on offense if you can get a shot early in the clock, usually the first 6 seconds, your efficiency on that shot is higher. Part of that is the simple notion that "fast break dunks are good" or an "open shot is a good shot".   And then the efficiency dips to a near constant level for the rest of the shot clock with a small uptick around 5 seconds left on the clock. (teams stop playing D late and the shot isn't rushed at the buzzer).

But the total game tempo has little to no relative correlation as to the results of Marquette Games, these are different things. Tempo is just a means to efficiency.

Purdue didn't beat Marquette because they forced them to play slow. They beat Marquette because they got higher quality shots. Edey made Tyler and Oso take runners and he got dunks and layups himself. Marquette out shot them 72 to 56, but MU took 25 midrange shots.

Mississippi St. didn't beat Marquette because they forced them to play slow. They beat Marquette because they got a higher volume of shots grabbing boards and Marquette fouled them on their attempts.

Wisconsin didn't beat Marquette because they forced them to play slow. They beat Marquette because, despite taking slightly worse shots than Marquette, Chucky just kept making shots.

Saying "tempo" plays a role in the outcome is just inaccurate. When Marquette beat Providence at home or won @Nova last year no one would say "Marquette won because Providence played slow".

There is not one example from last year where Marquette played a Big East Opponent for a second time and said Opponent was able to both slow Marquette down and flip the outcome of the first game. Anytime MU was slowed down from one game to the next the results were the same.

As for having an Alpha, I am of the opinion it just doesn't 100% matter. Having an Alpha vs playing like a team, or Iso Scoring vs assisted scoring, is additionally just another means to efficiency. Now the normative approach to basketball is to have an Alpha. It gets engrained when we are kids. So of course every team wants an Alpha, but you want to be able to do both.

I think this team can do both in some capacity. Our offense so far this year is just better than last years. Also, Kam, Joplin, and this years Kolek might be more creative than Morsell, Lewis, and last years Kolek. They shoot better from three, from two, and they find the open man better (maybe not Joplin for this one).

Again, noting the 1-9 away from home in their last ten is ridiculous. This year's team is 1-2 away from home with two top 5 NET losses. Last years team was 6-10 and finished 0-7 in their last 7. (part of that is the reason I would say this years team might have more alphas.)

As for Notre Dame themselves, why do they play slow. They play slow because they have too. They play 6 guys. They take their time on offense and defense just to be able to play for the entire game.

TL;DR
Can I get the tempo-free post?

[MUDPT]

There are websites that do they must win for you https://barttorvik.com/teamcast.php?team=Marquette&year=2023

[jfp61]

https://syndication.bleacherreport.com/amp/1715228-kem-pomeroys-new-stat-affirms-that-quick-offense-is-good-offense.amp.html

Offensive tempo is 100% good for offensive efficiency. Dunks, Layups, and Open threes are good. BUT,

Adjusted individual game tempo doesn't matter. Otherwise there would be a correlation between Adjusted Tempo and a Teams Adjusted Efficiency Margins. (Bartorvik uses BARTHAG instead of Efficiency Margin, AND of the analytical sites Bartorvik favors Offense over Defense more than most.)

[MU82]

[tower912]

My folks had one of those that I drove.  Piece o junk.

[Jay Bee]

See: Virginia (ugh, and occasionally uw-Madison).

End.

[Dr. Blackheart]

Offensive tempo is 100% good for offensive efficiency. Dunks, Layups, and Open threes are good. BUT,

Adjusted individual game tempo doesn't matter. Otherwise there would be a correlation between Adjusted Tempo and a Teams Adjusted Efficiency Margins. (Bartorvik uses BARTHAG instead of Efficiency Margin, AND of the analytical sites Bartorvik favors Offense over Defense more than most.)

As JB alluded to with Virginia, Wisconsin and ND, there is no strong correlation as teams pick different styles of play. MU tries to play the style (fast offense, slow defense) referenced in that Pomeroy article. All styles can be successful.

The question in my mind to be answered is can MU win consistently against match ups who try to counter Shaka's philosophy (which as a fan, I love)? I still feel Buzz was the master in adopting and adjusting, season to season, game to game. Thus, so many one possession games with mostly success.

The good news: We will find out Sunday (which back to topic, makes me feel this is a must win heading into conference... right before Shaka's third round against BE teams).

[DoctorV]

There are websites that do they must win for you https://barttorvik.com/teamcast.php?team=Marquette&year=2023

According to this Bart guy and his computer, Marquette should be the favorite to win the next 7 tips.

How about that

[tower912]

Just the tips, just for a second, just to see how it feels.

[Herman Cain]

Big East NET Rankings as of games of December 9, 2022

New Old

2   2   UConn   
33   32   Creighton   
42   42   Marquette   
45   44   Xavier   
60   60   Butler   
64   64   St. John's
114   116   Seton Hall
123   127   Providence   
150   153   Villanova   
170   172   DePaul   
227   229   Georgetown

December 10,2022 Team Sheet MU is number 42

https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2023/net-teamsheets-plus

[Herman Cain]

Big East NET rankings as of games of December 10, 2022

New Old
1   2   UConn   
39   45   Xavier   
43   42   Marquette   
44   33   Creighton   
51   60   Butler   
70   64   St. John's
103   123   Providence   
115   150   Villanova   
119   114   Seton Hall   
156   170   DePaul   
242   227   Georgetown   

December 11 Team Sheet . MU is 43

https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2023/net-teamsheets-plus

[Herman Cain]

Big East NET rankings as of games of December 11, 2022
New Old
1   1   UConn   
30   43   Marquette
40   39   Xavier   
46   44   Creighton   
51   51   Butler
70   70   St. John's
89   119   Seton Hall   
103   103   Providence   
112   115   Villanova   
150   156   DePaul   
240   242   Georgetown

December 12 Team Sheets . MU is 30

https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2023/net-teamsheets-plus

[Elonsmusk]

Big East NET rankings as of games of December 11, 2022
New Old
1   1   UConn   
30   43   Marquette
40   39   Xavier   
46   44   Creighton   
51   51   Butler
70   70   St. John's
89   119   Seton Hall   
103   103   Providence   
112   115   Villanova   
150   156   DePaul   
240   242   Georgetown

December 12 Team Sheets . MU is 30

https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2023/net-teamsheets-plus

That's a pretty bad looking resume for the Big East.  I trust KenPom most and the NET rankings are a pretty big departure from KenPom for other Big East teams besides UCONN and MU

[DFW HOYA]

Big East NET rankings as of games of December 11, 2022
New Old
240   242   Georgetown

A Syracuse "bump"...

[Vander Blue Man Group]

That's a pretty bad looking resume for the Big East.  I trust KenPom most and the NET rankings are a pretty big departure from KenPom for other Big East teams besides UCONN and MU

Hopefully Providence and Nova can get below 100.  Less opportunities for big wins and more opportunities for bad losses this year.  Marquette will have to take care of business with the lower-rated teams. 

[Lennys Tap]

Big East NET rankings as of games of December 11, 2022
New Old
1   1   UConn   
30   43   Marquette
40   39   Xavier   
46   44   Creighton   
51   51   Butler
70   70   St. John's
89   119   Seton Hall   
103   103   Providence   
112   115   Villanova   
150   156   DePaul   
240   242   Georgetown

December 12 Team Sheets . MU is 30

https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2023/net-teamsheets-plus

I'd be more than a little surprised if Villanova actually finishes 9th.

[We R Final Four]

Just the tips, just for a second, just to see how it feels.

Haha

[Juan Anderson's Mixtape]

I'd be more than a little surprised if Villanova actually finishes 9th.

Cam Whitmore is a major difference maker.  As he rounds into form, Nova will be a lot better going forward.

[Herman Cain]

 Big East Poll Rankings as of December 12, 2022

AP
3.  U Conn

Others Receiving Votes
MU,X, Creighton

Coaches
3. U Conn

Others receiving Votes
MU, Creighton ,X