Strategy Thurs???

[PointWarrior]

Great, now we have to face a motivated team. 

I hope UNC doesn't hold a grudge and use 1977 as motivation

[MuggsyB]

Yeah ... a dozen of us Marquette alums got together to watch that game at a Charlotte bar. We were of course outnumbered by UNC fans by a bazillion miles. Not the most fun I've ever had watching an MU game.

Good grief....that must have been an awful experience.  Of course being in Syracuse in 2013  must have been living death. 

[ChitownSpaceForRent]

North Carolina is at or near the top of the ACC in several categories.  The Heels lead the ACC in rebounding.  They don't turn it over often, averaging just ten giveaways/game.  They are the top free throw shooting team in the conference at 77%.  The team shoots 36% from three point range.  The league may be down this year, but Carolina is superior in many key metrics.

Sure, but this was one of the worst ever iterations of the ACC.

Cautious optimism for Thursday.

[JakeBarnes]

Score buckets while limiting them to significantly less of aforementioned buckets

[MU82]

Good grief....that must have been an awful experience.  Of course being in Syracuse in 2013  must have been living death.

The experience kind of had two phases. As UNC quickly built the lead, there was considerable trash-talking hurled our way. But once it became obvious we were gonna get thumped, it kind of shifted to, "Y'all had a great season," and "Jimmy Butler's a hell of a player," that kind of stuff, because they didn't want to rub it in. So it wasn't pleasant, but it coulda been worse.

I was in D.C. watching that game against Cuse, and that sucked badly enough!

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

What is the stat to watch?

UNC's 2P FG%. If they own the paint (whether on first or second chance opportunities) we will lose the game.

UNC doesn't actually have elite offensive rebounding numbers, it's pretty much all  Bacot doing the work. What they are elite at is scoring after they get the offensive rebound (again almost all Bacot). So while they aren't the best offensive rebounding team we've faced...if they get an offensive rebound, they are probably scoring.

They don't cause turnovers, they don't defend the three very well, and they don't defend the pick and roll particularly well. Our offense should be able to generate some open looks against them and if we are hitting our shots...that likely energizes our players which leads to better defense.

Defensively, I think I would try to put Morsell on RJ Davis and O-Max on Caleb Love. Shut down their dynamic guards with length and hope Bacot can't beat us by his lonesome. I'd have Kolek playing far off Leaky Black, helping to deny the entry pass to Bacot and trying to strip him anytime he touches the ball. I would also mix up defenses and have the double team on Bacot come from different positions and at different times so he is constantly guessing when and where the double is going to come from. He's not particularly good at passing out of the post so I think we can get him into some trouble.

I don't love the matchup, but there is a path to victory. UNC is very inconsistent so we catch them on an off night and we can win...or even blow them out if it's an off night for them and we're hitting our threes.

[1SE]

I'd go after Bacot early and often with Daryll and OMax - either the refs are calling it tight and we can get him into foul trouble, or they let it go and then hopefully do that both ways which lets us bring the violence.

With their super-thin bench we want as physical a game as possible - I'll take our 2nd 5 over theirs any day of the week. I'd be in full-court pressure from the tip - we have bench legs, they don't.

If we can keep Bacot to 20 minutes I think we win the game.

[real chili 83]

If we can score a few more points than they do, the odds favor a win. 

[muwarrior69]

All UNC needs to do is watch the Creighton game. If Bacot is half as good as Kalkbrenner it is over. I'm praying our January team shows up in Fort Worth.

[Frenns Liquor Depot]

All UNC needs to do is watch the Creighton game. If Bacot is half as good as Kalkbrenner it is over. I'm praying our January team shows up in Fort Worth.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eBq2SxmoOE8

[NCMUFan]

Expecting Warriors on the court.

[brewcity77]

Pick and roll, pick and roll, pick and roll. Kolek is going to need to get it going and if the shots are falling, I like our odds. UNC's defense doesn't scare me that much and I agree that getting Bacot into foul trouble could be big. If he plays the full game, he probably goes for 20/20 (not exaggerating).

Defensively, need to use the soft press to shorten the shot clock. They want to play fast so O-Max needs to slow that down. We might need to turn it up a bit to force turnovers because this is a team that has the physical tools to beat us up on the offensive glass, and our ability to turn mediocre offensive rebounding teams into great ones will probably show up here.

[DoctorV]

Leaky Black is the defensive specialist and will likely draw the Justin card. As I expected before the draw, I think Marquette has to win without Justin having a huge game- Leakys defense isn’t very leaky, he did well shutting down Duke’s front court lottery pick.

Hopefully Justin still gets around his averages, especially double digit boards, but many of the others will have to do some heavy offensive lifting.

I really like the idea of MU disrupting UNCs smaller in comparison guards with height and athleticism. Morsell and OMax could be huge defensively- maybe some Stevie on RJ Davis to hound him.
The problem though is that if you move Kolek to cover Black the height discrepancy is so drastic that it probably doesn’t work

[Dr. Blackheart]

All that's been said here but I will add a few points. Recently, MU has been one of the worst teams in the country as measured by momentum (Haslam), while UNC is the most inconsistent (last), as mentioned in this thread.

Why has MU lost momentum? Going back to when MU was on their win streak, I pointed out that was playing about 15% slower on offense, being more deliberate in the PnR. Waiting for the 2nd good shot by moving the ball and displacing defenders in space. However, MU has digressed to the December too quick possession pace during the February Fade.

The offense is designed to play fast, I get that. It is fun to watch when it's clicking. The philosophy is to take the first good shot. However, teams have adjusted, and we are forcing the first (and not best) shot. Our shooters trey percentages are dropping. Worse, our transition defense is suffering with the break-outs after our early misses.

The value of the extra pass is higher efficiency-wise. It sets up shooters with better looks. It moves the defense out of position for rebounds or easy transition points (see DePaul as the anti-poster child of easy break-outs points versus MI). No one exemplifies this more than Nova (although MU will never play that slow).

UNC and MU play fast. We don't have an inside game that threatens and our shooters have gone AWOL. If MU is a bit more deliberate including keeping down the early forced turnovers, we can win this game by taking advantage of UNC's lack of consistency and patience.

[Uncle Rico]

Leaky Black is the defensive specialist and will likely draw the Justin card. As I expected before the draw, I think Marquette has to win without Justin having a huge game- Leakys defense isn’t very leaky, he did well shutting down Duke’s front court lottery pick.

Hopefully Justin still gets around his averages, especially double digit boards, but many of the others will have to do some heavy offensive lifting.

I really like the idea of MU disrupting UNCs smaller in comparison guards with height and athleticism. Morsell and OMax could be huge defensively- maybe some Stevie on RJ Davis to hound him.
The problem though is that if you move Kolek to cover Black the height discrepancy is so drastic that it probably doesn’t work

Leaky Black is a baller.  Like his game a lot.

[IrwinFletcher]

Pick and roll, pick and roll, pick and roll. Kolek is going to need to get it going and if the shots are falling, I like our odds. UNC's defense doesn't scare me that much and I agree that getting Bacot into foul trouble could be big. If he plays the full game, he probably goes for 20/20 (not exaggerating).

Defensively, need to use the soft press to shorten the shot clock. They want to play fast so O-Max needs to slow that down. We might need to turn it up a bit to force turnovers because this is a team that has the physical tools to beat us up on the offensive glass, and our ability to turn mediocre offensive rebounding teams into great ones will probably show up here.

When was the last time we got any opponent into foul trouble?  We just don't draw fouls and so I don't think this is likely to happen.

[brewcity77]

When was the last time we got any opponent into foul trouble?  We just don't draw fouls and so I don't think this is likely to happen.

We don't, but he is a bit foul-prone. Fouled out 4 times, been on 4 fouls another 7 times. But Hubert isn't an auto-bench with 2 fouls in the first half coach, so it may not matter. But as these games can be called tight, trying to get Justin and Darryl attacking inside early might not be a bad strategy. Though I still think pick and roll is the key and expect Bacot will get numbers almost regardless.

[Dr. Blackheart]

If we can score a few more points than they do, the odds favor a win.

Jimmy Jackson yesterday (being serious): "If you prevent your man from catching a pass, you usually are a good defensive player".

[94Warrior]

What is the stat to watch?

FT%

[Pakuni]

If MU doesn't have a big coaching advantage Thursday, we probably hired the wrong guy.

[BrewCity83]

Here's my strategy:

After we beat UNC on Thursday, I'll buy $1977 worth of MU stock.

Wait - there's stock????

[GoldenEagles03]

I think Darryl needs to be the guy on the court with the highest energy with a confident look on his face.

He's the engine and if he can lead and get everyone else to lock in with energy I like our chances.  He's the leader though and it starts with him.

[Jockey]

Pick and roll, pick and roll, pick and roll. Kolek is going to need to get it going and if the shots are falling, I like our odds. UNC's defense doesn't scare me that much and I agree that getting Bacot into foul trouble could be big. If he plays the full game, he probably goes for 20/20 (not exaggerating).

Yes. The BE figured Kolek out - especially the P/R. I don’t think UNC will do near as well against it.

[TrojanWarrior]

1. Get them in foul trouble early, they do not have the bench we do.

2. Run and wind them, they do not have the bench we do...

They are 6-1 since the Pitt loss, we have been lost since the close Providence defeat.

[pbiflyer]

My strategy Thursday?