More conference realignment talk

[WhiteTrash]

If there is a break off from the NCAA, Duke will be invited along and continue to invest the same amount of money and resources into football they always have.

You may be correct, but that doesn't align with the public or not so public narrative that conferences are looking for schools that maintain or add to the conference value. Duke right now is looking at a real possibility of getting a diminished share of the current ACC deal. Schools like Clemson, FSU, Miami, VT & NC are looking for a $10M per year bump so some ACC schools will take a $10M hit annually. I'm not saying it will happen but I think it gives us a general market value of Duke.

[PointWarrior]

Regarding Big East, I've long assumed that if they stuck to the plan of not adding football schools that VCU and Saint Louis make the most sense? Maybe Davidson? Others that are decent bball schools that geographically make sense are Dayton and Drake. However Dayton would share the Cincy market with Xavier so that might be a deal breaker of them ever being added but they are a good competitive bball school. Drake probably too small of a media market (Des Moines) to add.

A sneaky school who could gain traction if they continue their hot start at the D1 level is Saint Thomas (Minneapolis/Saint Paul market)

Not sure who else? Oral Roberts (Tulsa, OK)? Fordham (NYC)? Of course if they choose to not factor in geography that opens up a ton more possibilities. Saint Mary's? San Francisco?

The impending ACC blowup might be biggest factor of who is added to the BE so maybe they sit tight until that happens?

Probably will add 1 school for short term when the time comes but 2 if UConn leaves. Not sure if their plan would be to get to 12 or eventually 14 or 16 teams.

St Thomas?   You must be one of their four fans.

[79Warrior]

Honest question: why would UNC and Duke be a package deal? I'm not following why UNC would pass on any good opportunity if it did not include Duke.

I framed the question that way because IMHO Duke athletics doesn't bring the $75-$100M per year of revenue that the BIG10 or SEC demand.

Perhaps the same reasons USC and UCLA were a package deal.

[WhiteTrash]

Perhaps the same reasons USC and UCLA were a package deal.

And what reasons were those? I'm not saying your wrong but the parallels are not obvious to me.

[The Equalizer]

And what reasons were those? I'm not saying your wrong but the parallels are not obvious to me.

The Duke/UNC regular season games are among the most watched college basketball games all season.

The 3/4 matchup drew 2.6 million fans, and the 2/4 game was even larger with 2.8 million.  Those are HUGE audiences.  MU's biggest regular season game by comparison was 540k

No network is going to split Duke/UNC because they'll lose out on those two huge paydays.

[brewcity77]

The Duke/UNC regular season games are among the most watched college basketball games all season.

The 3/4 matchup drew 2.6 million fans, and the 2/4 game was even larger with 2.8 million.  Those are HUGE audiences.  MU's biggest regular season game by comparison was 540k

No network is going to split Duke/UNC because they'll lose out on those two huge paydays.

There are 10 football programs that average 2.6 million per game or more. But Duke football averages 115,700 viewers.

If it were a basketball-only conference, those games might matter. To a football conference, those games are just blips on their least important radar. Duke isn't going to be a package deal with North Carolina because of 2 basketball games per year.

https://medium.com/run-it-back-with-zach/which-college-football-programs-were-the-most-watched-in-2022-94eca4f6acbd

[Badgerhater]

St Thomas?   You must be one of their four fans.

Those four fans make it their full time job to say "the Big East will come crawling to add St Thomas."

The delusion is that real.

[WhiteTrash]

There are 10 football programs that average 2.6 million per game or more. But Duke football averages 115,700 viewers.

If it were a basketball-only conference, those games might matter. To a football conference, those games are just blips on their least important radar. Duke isn't going to be a package deal with North Carolina because of 2 basketball games per year.

https://medium.com/run-it-back-with-zach/which-college-football-programs-were-the-most-watched-in-2022-94eca4f6acbd

I agree with this. And I don't think UNC needs a travel partner if they go to either the SEC or BIG10.

[WhiteTrash]

Those four fans make it their full time job to say "the Big East will come crawling to add St Thomas."

The delusion is that real.

I bet that will happen.................... right after a spot in the Big East opens because MU joins the Big10. 

[PointWarrior]

Those four fans make it their full time job to say "the Big East will come crawling to add St Thomas."

The delusion is that real.

I probably would take St Thomas to the BE before Dayton

[WhiteTrash]

I probably would take St Thomas to the BE before Dayton

I probably would take Chicago St. to the BE before Dayton 

[Mr. Nielsen]

I get that, but what I'm saying is if I'm a TV exec, I find it hard to believe that more people are evaluating TV packages based on where to watch Rutgers football than Duke basketball.

Getting Rutgers in the B1G, was about the B1G alumni in the area to get that region with BTN on their TV's.

Edit: I see finishing reading the topic, TAMU beat me to the answer.

[MU Fan in Connecticut]

I probably would take St Thomas to the BE before Dayton

Ironclad Scoop rule, ABD.

[WhiteTrash]

Would they? I honestly don't know what the cable situation is down Durham way. Even if there is a similar setup,  if the B1G grabbed a UNC (or maybe UVA or VT) first,  they wouldn't need Duke to accomplish that

TAMU, just saw that my attempt to be witty was wrong. I meant to remove the "think" from Duke not have the same impact. I think your read on this is 100% correct, and that is what I was trying to convey.

[Dr. Blackheart]

When do the power football conferences reach saturation?  A 20 team mega conference has well hit the point of diminishing returns, IMO.  This will be true with TV markets too. It sounds like the B1G is almost there and would be selective (Notre Dame, UNC).

Also, would ND join the B1G to finish in 8th place every year and give up playoff bid?  They have had at least 10 chances to do that.  I think they prefer their own TV deal. Maybe the BE has a chance of them returning?

[oldwarrior81]

my guess the max size would be three conferences of 24 schools.
divided into two 12 team conferences, four 6 team divisions, or six 4 team divisions
similar to how the NFL does it with scheduling

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

TAMU, just saw that my attempt to be witty was wrong. I meant to remove the "think" from Duke not have the same impact. I think your read on this is 100% correct, and that is what I was trying to convey.

Ah, that makes much more sense. I was confused

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

When do the power football conferences reach saturation?  A 20 team mega conference has well hit the point of diminishing returns, IMO.  This will be true with TV markets too. It sounds like the B1G is almost there and would be selective (Notre Dame, UNC).

Also, would ND join the B1G to finish in 8th place every year and give up playoff bid?  They have had at least 10 chances to do that.  I think they prefer their own TV deal. Maybe the BE has a chance of them returning?

I think saturation is the most important question. I don't know where that line is. 18? 20? 24? Will determine the fate of a lot of other conferences.

I've also wondered about Notre Dame. If the ACC implodes, does that mean they join the B1G? Or do they cling on to their tradition of football independence and find the best non-football conference? I'm not expecting it to happen, but I see a path for ND back to the BEast. I think UConn's quick success could be a great selling point.

[MU82]

Also, would ND join the B1G to finish in 8th place every year and give up playoff bid?  They have had at least 10 chances to do that.  I think they prefer their own TV deal. Maybe the BE has a chance of them returning?

As long as NBC or some other network is willing to pay ND the big bucks, there is little incentive for Notre Dame to join a conference. Some argue that being an independent hurts their chances to qualify for the playoffs, but I agree with you -- being a Big 20 also-ran would hurt their chances a lot more. And with the playoffs expanding, they will be in good shape to make it many years.

I also think that playing all non-football sports in the Big East could end up being the best fit for ND. It's hard to imagine that the Big 20 or SEC would let them stay independent in football the way the ACC has, but maybe.

[Viper]

And what reasons were those? I'm not saying your wrong but the parallels are not obvious to me.

BIG wanted USC for football. USC wanted the FOX TV revenue, but wanted to maintain the UCLA rivalry across all sports (hence, package deal). And, UCLA NEEDED the FOX revenue due to their extreme athletic dept. debt. I have not heard if the California 'system' has officially granted UCLA a release from the PAC12, but assuming so as it appears all systems-go for '24.

[The Sultan]

BIG wanted USC for football. USC wanted the FOX TV revenue, but wanted to maintain the UCLA rivalry across all sports (hence, package deal). And, UCLA NEEDED the FOX revenue due to their extreme athletic dept. debt. I have not heard if the California 'system' has officially granted UCLA a release from the PAC12, but assuming so as it appears all systems-go for '24.

Additionally, I would guess there are more alumni of UCLA in southern California than any other school. Over half of their alumni still live in the area.

[Viper]

Additionally, I would guess there are more alumni of UCLA in southern California than any other school. Over half of their alumni still live in the area.

true. Not sure what the undergraduate enrollment is at UCLA, but probably double that of SC?  (I'm sure SC's tuition, being a private school, plays a factor in enrollment #'s too.)
I've always liked usc football. Look forward to seeing them play a game in Madison sometime.

[pbiflyer]

I am not sure that these mega conferences are going to help football ratings. A bunch of bad games and rivalry games every 4 or 5 years. And the winners are based more on scheduling than talent.

[Coleman]

Good stuff. UConn jumping also means predicting the future. Say they jump and net $8M per year of that $20M after added costs and expenses. That's strictly a guess, no research, just for thought experiment purposes.

So $8M/year means with their $30M Big East buyout, they don't really start to see the profits until year 5. Where will we be in 5 years? Might the SEC & B10 decide to go to 20 programs each? If so, is half of the Big 12 changing again at that point? Might UConn be left in the cold a second time, in a football conference they aren't competitive in with teams from the Carolinas, Texas, Utah, and Florida, among others?

Seems like a big gamble with a very real possibility of UConn having 2015 deja vu.

Did you post this on reddit? I swear I saw almost this exact same argument there. I don't disagree

[🏀]

Ironclad Scoop rule, ABD.

Amen