More conference realignment talk

[The Hippie Satan of Hyperbole]

I just heard a reporter on the radio, who is at the ACC meetings, who said that some of the ACC ADs refused to sign "a letter of solidarity".  Ouch!

1. Why would you?
2. Who would put that dumb idea forward knowing the current climate?

[dgies9156]

Duke won't be left behind. It is too good of a brand and academic institution. I don't know where they will land, but it won't be the Big East.

I still maintain Wake and BC are the most likely to land in the Big East.

Brother Coleman:

Most of the time I agree with you. This time: No way!

It's about dollars, pure and simple. Duke football does nothing for the ratings or the overall competitive strength of a conference's programming. Playing Duke will consign a team to playing on ESPN12 between Slippery Rock vs. Marshall and Vanderbilt vs. The Citadel.

There is no chance Duke football will finish in the upper half of the SEC or the BIG, much less compete for a championship. The SEC already has Kentucky, Vanderbilt and Mississippi State to line the bottom of the bird cage. Why on earth would they want Duke?

As to the BIG, every legacy team has one at least one outright conference championship, Even Northwestern, who currently sucks. Add Notre Dame and Virginia and you have a true power conference.

On Wake, I agree with you. But I think we can get Duke too and we'd be America's BEST basketball conference. Bar none.

[El Guerrero 2]

Brother Coleman:

Most of the time I agree with you. This time: No way!

It's about dollars, pure and simple. Duke football does nothing for the ratings or the overall competitive strength of a conference's programming. Playing Duke will consign a team to playing on ESPN12 between Slippery Rock vs. Marshall and Vanderbilt vs. The Citadel.

There is no chance Duke football will finish in the upper half of the SEC or the BIG, much less compete for a championship. The SEC already has Kentucky, Vanderbilt and Mississippi State to line the bottom of the bird cage. Why on earth would they want Duke?

As to the BIG, every legacy team has one at least one outright conference championship, Even Northwestern, who currently sucks. Add Notre Dame and Virginia and you have a true power conference.

On Wake, I agree with you. But I think we can get Duke too and we'd be America's BEST basketball conference. Bar none.

I'm no Dookie guy, but I think their brand in basketball and academic pedigree are enough to move the needle and get into the Big Ten. Just look at the revenue figures for their bball program, they are a complete outlier almost akin to ND in football.

[The Hippie Satan of Hyperbole]

I think it is extremely doubtful that Duke is ever in the Big Ten, unless it comes in a package deal with UNC or something similar. They just don't have the football fanbase, and their basketball "move the needle" cannot make up for that.

[79Warrior]

I think it is extremely doubtful that Duke is ever in the Big Ten, unless it comes in a package deal with UNC or something similar. They just don't have the football fanbase, and their basketball "move the needle" cannot make up for that.

For sure. Duke will be fine, but it will not be in the Big 10.

[El Guerrero 2]

For sure. Duke will be fine, but it will not be in the Big 10.

Why is adding Duke football worse than adding Rutgers football? And I'd bet Duke basketball is more accretive to the TV contract than adding Maryland football. And Duke's academics are far superior to Nebraska's. It's not crazy.

At this point, I'd almost put money down that the Big 10 takes ND, UVA, UNC and Duke to go to 18, while Clemson, FSU, Miami, and NC State go to the SEC to put it at 20. At that point I suspect the Big 10 will grab whatever it likes from the remainder of the PAC-12 and the Big 12 and then reach an agreement with the SEC to break away from FBS and leave the rest of the country in the dust.

The bottom feeder football schools in the ACC, Big 12, and PAC-12 are going to be caught holding the bag. The Big 12 is, to their credit, doing everything it can to compete with the big boys and earn a tag along little brother invite to the party, but I don't think there is enough left with UT and OU gone.

The important question is what happens to non-football sports when the Big Ten and SEC break away. I think the NCAA Tournament is valuable enough in its current form and the other sports to much of an administrative hassle that the Big Ten and SEC decide to leave those alone. But who knows?

[The Hippie Satan of Hyperbole]

Because Rutgers was primarily added to get the BTN on a primary cable tier in the NYC metro. Same with Maryland and DC.

[El Guerrero 2]

Because Rutgers was primarily added to get the BTN on a primary cable tier in the NYC metro. Same with Maryland and DC.

I get that, but what I'm saying is if I'm a TV exec, I find it hard to believe that more people are evaluating TV packages based on where to watch Rutgers football than Duke basketball.

[The Hippie Satan of Hyperbole]

I get that, but what I'm saying is if I'm a TV exec, I find it hard to believe that more people are evaluating TV packages based on where to watch Rutgers football than Duke basketball.

I would guess Rutgers football draws more than Duke basketball. And regardless, if they don't, there would be better options overall than Duke and its basketball team. It's not a binary option between Duke and Rutgers at this point.

[El Guerrero 2]

I would guess Rutgers football draws more than Duke basketball. And regardless, if they don't, there would be better options overall than Duke and its basketball team. It's not a binary option between Duke and Rutgers at this point.

Fair, but I suspect UNC and Duke might be a package deal. And the SEC certainly won't take Duke. And I suspect the Big Ten wants to tap into the Southeast.

[DFW HOYA]

There is no chance Duke football will finish in the upper half of the SEC or the BIG, much less compete for a championship.

Yet, Northwestern won Big Ten divisional titles in 2018 and 2020.

[Uncle Rico]

Duke is a huge brand.  It gets views because it has a national fanbase and national collection of haters.

Winter inventory at the four letter or at Fox Sports would still be enticing.

[dgies9156]

Why is adding Duke football worse than adding Rutgers football? And I'd bet Duke basketball is more accretive to the TV contract than adding Maryland football. And Duke's academics are far superior to Nebraska's. It's not crazy.

Why be stupid twice?

Gang, ya'll are so basketball centric, you don't get it. Football is the be all and end all for P4 athletics. You're either accretive or dilutive to per-institution football revenue. In what alternative universe is Duke football accretive to the SEC or Big 10.

North Carolina, Clemson, Florida State and Miami make sense for the SEC. They just mean more .... REVENUE!!!!!

Same for Notre Dame and Virginia in the BIG.

Every one of these teams has a theoretical shot at being a football power. Most have been.

Go back to Page 1 of this thread and see my comments on Vanderbilt. If the SEC had to do it over again, Vanderbilt and Kentucky would be on the outs. No where in this universe would Vanderbilt be in the SEC if they constituted it today. Kentucky is kinda like North Carolina -- every now and then they play something approximating SEC football but they're about as much a threat to Alabama or Georgia as Albania is a military threat to the USA.

And don't give me this nonsense about academics. Ask any SEC President whose institution is not located on West End Avenue whether they'd rather have academics or more football money and I guarantee you that a potion of truth serum would not yield an academic answer!

Last but not least, for all you hopeless romantics who somehow think that Marquette should never have dropped football and that we'd be a P4 team if the Jesuits had just shown more wisdom back in the dark ages of 1960, I got news. How many schools with 11,000 students and Marquette's resources have legitimate P4 football programs. Think about it -- maybe Stanford, USC, and that obnoxious drunken leprechaun. We're debating whether Boston College is a legitimate football power (it aint) and anyone who thinks Duke, Vanderbilt and Northwestern are, well, you're probably the same people that would donate money for an on-campus, 60,000 football stadium on the near west side of Milwaukee! Right?

[forgetful]

I agree with this comment on the article:

"UNC, FSU, Clemson, and UVA can be pretty sure of making the SEC or B1G.

Miami, GT, VT, Duke, and NC State could potentially get accepted to one of them, if not they will have a place in the Big 12 and make more money.

Louisville and Pitt could also be pretty sure of a Big 12 invite.

Thats theoretically enough to end the conference. Sorry Syracuse, Wake, and BC"

I don't think Duke is going to end up in the Big East. BC and Wake? Could happen. Syracuse is less likely but possible.

Not sure how your list of teams makes sense. Syracuse may suck at Football now, but they have a huge football fanbase.

People have UVA going to the BigTen, but say absolutely impossible for Duke. They both suck at Football, Duke has a massive national fan base in basketball.

But in the end, expansion gets tricky, because the entire aspects of expansion have never been about fan bases, but metro markets, and by bringing in a local team (e.g. Rutgers) they can get the B10 network guaranteed on the cable basic tiers, and bring in $$$.

The above is why I think the B10 might target Georgia Tech (Atlanta and the state of Georgia), any Florida School , and a North Carolina School. Not sure a Virginia school is necessary, as Maryland already covers the DC market area.

[Dickthedribbler]

With the ACC facing the apparently strong chance that the League will implode, its impossible to predict who's going where and how this will all shake out.

But I think one thing is likely to happen that couldn't have been seen 6-12 months ago, and that is that the BE will be presented with real opportunity  for expansion that doesn't involve Gonzaga.

[The Hippie Satan of Hyperbole]

Fair, but I suspect UNC and Duke might be a package deal. And the SEC certainly won't take Duke. And I suspect the Big Ten wants to tap into the Southeast.

But Duke's not getting you the southeast. UNC might. Georgia Tech too.

[WhiteTrash]

Fair, but I suspect UNC and Duke might be a package deal. And the SEC certainly won't take Duke. And I suspect the Big Ten wants to tap into the Southeast.

Honest question: why would UNC and Duke be a package deal? I'm not following why UNC would pass on any good opportunity if it did not include Duke.

I framed the question that way because IMHO Duke athletics doesn't bring the $75-$100M per year of revenue that the BIG10 or SEC demand.   

[WhiteTrash]

Last but not least, for all you hopeless romantics who somehow think that Marquette should never have dropped football and that we'd be a P4 team if the Jesuits had just shown more wisdom back in the dark ages of 1960, I got news. How many schools with 11,000 students and Marquette's resources have legitimate P4 football programs. Think about it -- maybe Stanford, USC, and that obnoxious drunken leprechaun. We're debating whether Boston College is a legitimate football power (it aint) and anyone who thinks Duke, Vanderbilt and Northwestern are, well, you're probably the same people that would donate money for an on-campus, 60,000 football stadium on the near west side of Milwaukee! Right?

Well, TCU was in the NC game, and had their 2nd top 2 finish in the past 10-15 years. Not saying they are Bama or UGA but they are smaller than MU and better than a Wisconsin or any other B10 school not named OSU or Michigan in the past 20 years.

But your overall point is correct.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

I get that, but what I'm saying is if I'm a TV exec, I find it hard to believe that more people are evaluating TV packages based on where to watch Rutgers football than Duke basketball.

Iirc, the move allowed a major cable provider to add the B1G network to a pretty basic cable package in the the NYC and DC metros. This meant that millions of people were now paying for the B1G network who weren't before.... whether they ever watched it or not. It brought in millions in revenue a year. I don't think Duke would have the same impact

[WhiteTrash]

Iirc, the move allowed a major cable provider to add the B1G network to a pretty basic cable package in the the NYC and DC metros. This meant that millions of people were now paying for the B1G network who weren't before.... whether they ever watched it or not. It brought in millions in revenue a year. I don't think Duke would have the same impact

FIFY

[The Hippie Satan of Hyperbole]

Duke would not have the same impact.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

FIFY

Would they? I honestly don't know what the cable situation is down Durham way. Even if there is a similar setup,  if the B1G grabbed a UNC (or maybe UVA or VT) first,  they wouldn't need Duke to accomplish that

[WhiteTrash]

Would they? I honestly don't know what the cable situation is down Durham way. Even if there is a similar setup,  if the B1G grabbed a UNC (or maybe UVA or VT) first,  they wouldn't need Duke to accomplish that

Agreed.

On the flip side, would Duke want to chase big time football? They have a great name and tradition in basketball and it has been proved out that you don't need big time football to be a basketball power and TV draw. Not knowing much about Duke football, I'll venture a guess that they play in a 30k seat stadium and have below average facilities. To keep up in the super conferences may take a $250M investment (wild @ss guess)

But (there's always a but) if the super conferences break off from the NCAA , Duke may be compelled to take money from the dorms or med school to invest in football. Of course, the super conferences may include the Big East sooo......

[Uncle Rico]

Agreed.

On the flip side, would Duke want to chase big time football? They have a great name and tradition in basketball and it has been proved out that you don't need big time football to be a basketball power and TV draw. Not knowing much about Duke football, I'll venture a guess that they play in a 30k seat stadium and have below average facilities. To keep up in the super conferences may take a $250M investment (wild @ss guess)

But (there's always a but) if the super conferences break off from the NCAA , Duke may be compelled to take money from the dorms or med school to invest in football. Of course, the super conferences may include the Big East sooo......

If there is a break off from the NCAA, Duke will be invited along and continue to invest the same amount of money and resources into football they always have.

[The Hippie Satan of Hyperbole]

There won't be a break. The P5 get all they want out of the relationship already.