Economic Impacts/Studies

[Frenns Liquor Depot]

Barrons covered this paper which I thought was an interesting read about why controlling the health crisis is so important for many reasons.

https://libertystreeteconomics.newyorkfed.org/2020/03/fight-the-pandemic-save-the-economy-lessons-from-the-1918-flu.html?mod=article_inline

[The Hippie Satan of Hyperbole]

This very much mirrors the opinion I posted from the Fed Reserve of St. Louis.  It would be better to shut things down for a longer period now, than it would be to come back too early.  Economically things will rebound if we take care of this now.

[Jockey]

The DWD in Wisconsin said that on Thursday, for example, its unemployment insurance division telephone system was at times receiving 160 calls per second.

"During the week of March 22, 2020, DWD's Unemployment Insurance Division received more than 1.5 million calls, an increase of 6,208% over the busiest weekly call volume," according to a statement from the agency.

[Frenns Liquor Depot]

Spending analysis via credit cards

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/11/business/economy/coronavirus-us-economy-spending.html

[mu_hilltopper]

Spending analysis via credit cards

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/11/business/economy/coronavirus-us-economy-spending.html

Anecdotally .. my credit card bill for March was a third what it is usually.   No restaurants, no gas purchases, no movies, no tickets, vacation cancelled. 

Multiply that by 150m households and .. whoa.

[tower912]

My credit card is actually relatively high, as we have been getting carry out far more often than we ever went out to restaurants.    As well as ordering groceries or other things that we would normally go out and purchase in person.    However, we do what we have done every month of our 28 years of marriage and pay it all off at the end of the month.   

[wadesworld]

I have a credit balance based on refunds from a trip I booked to go to the men's volleyball Final Four in early May.

[WarriorDad]

Pensions will be devastated and a reason why people will start to push that Americans go back to work despite the risks.

[warriorchick]

Pensions will be devastated and a reason why people will start to push that Americans go back to work despite the risks.

If the your retirement savings went down so much that you have to go back to work, either you didn't have your portfolio properly balanced, or you really didn't have enough money to retire in the lifestyle you wanted in the first place.

We got married the Saturday before Black Monday in 1987. Our best man was a Goldman Sachs financial advisor. Some of his retired clients had to go back to work, but it was because they panicked and sold at the bottom.

I literally retired two days ago, seven years early. My 401k has gone down 20 percent since the beginning of the year, but it hasn't changed my plans one bit.

[WarriorDad]

If the your retirement savings went down so much that you have to go back to work, either you didn't have your portfolio properly balanced, or you really didn't have enough money to retire in the lifestyle you wanted in the first place.

We got married the Saturday before Black Monday in 1987. Our best man was a Goldman Sachs financial advisor. Some of his retired clients had to go back to work, but it was because they panicked and sold at the bottom.

I literally retired two days ago, seven years early. My 401k has gone down 20 percent since the beginning of the year, but it hasn't changed my plans one bit.

Good for you and I mean that.  In general my comments are about the ability of these funds to be funded properly at all.  New Jersey may need a bailout and they will not be alone.  Corporate pension funds in bad shape after this.

When the American people understand how bad that really is, in my view the push to reopen will hit a groundswell.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/02/business/dealbook/coronavirus-public-pension.html

[forgetful]

Good for you and I mean that.  In general my comments are about the ability of these funds to be funded properly at all.  New Jersey may need a bailout and they will not be alone.  Corporate pension funds in bad shape after this.

When the American people understand how bad that really is, in my view the push to reopen will hit a groundswell.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/02/business/dealbook/coronavirus-public-pension.html

The US public has a long track record of not giving a damn about people's corporate pensions being taken away. Some even regularly vote for politicians that campaign in part on removing government pensions.

[reinko]

If the your retirement savings went down so much that you have to go back to work, either you didn't have your portfolio properly balanced, or you really didn't have enough money to retire in the lifestyle you wanted in the first place.

We got married the Saturday before Black Monday in 1987. Our best man was a Goldman Sachs financial advisor. Some of his retired clients had to go back to work, but it was because they panicked and sold at the bottom.

I literally retired two days ago, seven years early. My 401k has gone down 20 percent since the beginning of the year, but it hasn't changed my plans one bit.

This close to retirement, and you still dropped 20%, I would find a new financial advisor.  This is borderline criminal.  I'm in my late 30s, and down 20% as well, with an aggressive portfolio.

[warriorchick]

This close to retirement, and you still dropped 20%, I would find a new financial advisor.  This is borderline criminal.  I'm in my late 30s, and down 20% as well, with an aggressive portfolio.

It's a fund based on my traditional retirement date. I am planning through retirement, not to retirement. The money will be there when I need it.

I might also add that I earned close to 30 percent in 2019, so I am still ahead.

[Pakuni]

It's a fund based on my traditional retirement date. I am planning through retirement, not to retirement. The money will be there when I need it.

I might also add that I earned close to 30 percent in 2019, so I am still ahead.

This is a really good point. The market today is by and large around where it was two years ago. It absolutely sucks to have lost two years of gains, but unless you've been really dumb in recent months, this is a setback not ruin.

[pbiflyer]

It's a fund based on my traditional retirement date. I am planning through retirement, not to retirement. The money will be there when I need it.

I might also add that I earned close to 30 percent in 2019, so I am still ahead.

If you need a little extra cash, you could write commercials for your investment company. 

[Jockey]

If the your retirement savings went down so much that you have to go back to work, either you didn't have your portfolio properly balanced, or you really didn't have enough money to retire in the lifestyle you wanted in the first place.

We got married the Saturday before Black Monday in 1987. Our best man was a Goldman Sachs financial advisor. Some of his retired clients had to go back to work, but it was because they panicked and sold at the bottom.

I literally retired two days ago, seven years early. My 401k has gone down 20 percent since the beginning of the year, but it hasn't changed my plans one bit.

As part of my crazy partisan ways, I go ultra-conservative at the end of Republican presidencies. I did it with bush I, Bush II, and last June under Trump. It has paid off well. It was like having a money tree during the Clinton and Obama years. My advisor checked a couple weeks ago after the the market had declined 35%. My loss was at 9.5 %.

I mostly avoided the crash of '08 and then rode Obama's wave for 10+years. So, like you, I was able to retire early.

[Lennys Tap]

This very much mirrors the opinion I posted from the Fed Reserve of St. Louis.  It would be better to shut things down for a longer period now, than it would be to come back too early.  Economically things will rebound if we take care of this now.

i

IMO that depends on what "a longer period" means. No herd immunity as we self quarantine, so to be safe we would have to shut down until a vaccine is developed, approved, manufactured and administered. So, maybe a year, maybe 18 months, maybe longer. If that's "the cure" I have little doubt it will be worse than the disease.

[TSmith34, Inc.]

i

IMO that depends on what "a longer period" means. No herd immunity as we self quarantine, so to be safe we would have to shut down until a vaccine is developed, approved, manufactured and administered. So, maybe a year, maybe 18 months, maybe longer. If that's "the cure" I have little doubt it will be worse than the disease.

My money is on effective treatments coming out of the testing currently going on well before a vaccine is ever developed, if it ever is. If treatments can bring down the mortality rate to similar to flu in the .1% range we'll be up and running way, way before a vaccine can be rolled out.

[Jockey]

This very much mirrors the opinion I posted from the Fed Reserve of St. Louis.  It would be better to shut things down for a longer period now, than it would be to come back too early.  Economically things will rebound if we take care of this now.

I think you are spot on. Trump is clueless as it will take a decent amount of time to ramp back up. But if we do it too early and have to shut down again, then it gets really dicey.

[Frenns Liquor Depot]

i

IMO that depends on what "a longer period" means. No herd immunity as we self quarantine, so to be safe we would have to shut down until a vaccine is developed, approved, manufactured and administered. So, maybe a year, maybe 18 months, maybe longer. If that's "the cure" I have little doubt it will be worse than the disease.

CEO's have to decide about when and how to reopen so they can provide a safe work environment.  I saw this in a political risk opinion piece that I cannot post directly, but the gist for CEO's is:
1. What medical data is required to support reopening?
2. How do you keep people safe - fever scanners, massive amounts of PPE, workplace changes (social distance in plant/office, what does a meeting look like)
3. Infrastructure of getting people to work.  Is public transport safe, how do you handle daycare, how do you feed people.

The narrative that focus on the virus or focus on the economy are two things is false -- they are one and intertwined.  Consumer behavior, worker behavior, the ability to get things done the way we used to and every facet of society is impacted as long as this virus is uncontrolled. 

So we need to design the new system--and the clock continues to tick.

[The Hippie Satan of Hyperbole]

i

IMO that depends on what "a longer period" means. No herd immunity as we self quarantine, so to be safe we would have to shut down until a vaccine is developed, approved, manufactured and administered. So, maybe a year, maybe 18 months, maybe longer. If that's "the cure" I have little doubt it will be worse than the disease.

I believe the report was recommending until the end of June.  But it was two weeks ago and I think the underlying assumptions have changed.

[The Hippie Satan of Hyperbole]

Anecdotally .. my credit card bill for March was a third what it is usually.   No restaurants, no gas purchases, no movies, no tickets, vacation cancelled. 

Multiply that by 150m households and .. whoa.

My wife and I figured out this morning that we didn't make a single purchase this entire three day weekend.  Not even online.

My energy bill was auto-paid this morning.  It is the first transaction in my checking account since last Thursday.

[forgetful]

CEO's have to decide about when and how to reopen so they can provide a safe work environment.  I saw this in a political risk opinion piece that I cannot post directly, but the gist for CEO's is:
1. What medical data is required to support reopening?
2. How do you keep people safe - fever scanners, massive amounts of PPE, workplace changes (social distance in plant/office, what does a meeting look like)
3. Infrastructure of getting people to work.  Is public transport safe, how do you handle daycare, how do you feed people.

The narrative that focus on the virus or focus on the economy are two things is false -- they are one and intertwined.  Consumer behavior, worker behavior, the ability to get things done the way we used to and every facet of society is impacted as long as this virus is uncontrolled. 

So we need to design the new system--and the clock continues to tick.

I agree this is what should be being done. But current evidence says that isn't followed. Fast food restaurants are open everywhere. They do not have proper protection, have to take public transportation to work (minimum wage), aren't being screened in most places, etc.

Yet they all stayed open.

You forgot that although they consider those three. They are constantly weighted against 1a. Profit.

[rocky_warrior]

Can someone explain to me in simple terms what the phrase "reopening the economy" means?  Does it mean forcing governors / mayors to lift stay at home restrictions?  Even then, wouldn't prudent business owners stay closed/keep modified operations for the safety of their employees and public? 

I'm thinking it's just poor terminology, and likely wording to start a political fight...

[MU Fan in Connecticut]

Can someone explain to me in simple terms what the phrase "reopening the economy" means?  Does it mean forcing governors / mayors to lift stay at home restrictions?  Even then, wouldn't prudent business owners stay closed/keep modified operations for the safety of their employees and public? 

I'm thinking it's just poor terminology, and likely wording to start a political fight...

The last 3 working days, I received notices from a half-dozen customers and a few suppliers indicating they have decided to temporarily shut-down operations after Easter and would notify all of an update again in 1-2 weeks.  One supplier said they had an employee test positive for Coronavirus which prompted the decision.