COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")

[Dr. Blackheart]

I went through the rabies protocol after the Bradley Bat game. 

[Pakuni]

Miami of Ohio postpones two basketball games over concerns two students may have coronavirus.

https://www.si.com/college/2020/01/28/miami-ohio-basketball-games-canceled-coronavirus?utm_source=twitter.com&utm_medium=social&xid=socialflow_twitter_si&utm_campaign=sinow

[MU Fan in Connecticut]

Not Coronavirus, but before my Asia trip and mostly related to India I got vaccines for:
Japanese Encephalitis
Typhoid
Cholera
a Polio booster
a MMR booster
Rabies
and the latest flu vaccine.

Work was paying and I wasn't going to mess around.

 

[Goose]

IMO, the Chinese government is hiding something or overreacting. Thus far not even close to being as deadly as SARS, yet they sounded the alarm. There is more to this story to come, I believe. Something does not add to me.

I traveled throughout the SARS outbreak and few clients get rattled. I fielded a dozen calls today from nervous clients. China was rocked by trade war and causing alarm has caught my attention. There is something fishy in this whole outbreak and believe it will cause serious short term supply chain issues.

[The Hippie Satan of Hyperbole]

IMO, the Chinese government is hiding something or overreacting. Thus far not even close to being as deadly as SARS, yet they sounded the alarm. There is more to this story to come, I believe. Something does not add to me.

I traveled throughout the SARS outbreak and few clients get rattled. I fielded a dozen calls today from nervous clients. China was rocked by trade war and causing alarm has caught my attention. There is something fishy in this whole outbreak and believe it will cause serious short term supply chain issues.

Thanks Goose.  I was thinking that China's reaction doesn't seem to fit the circumstances.

[Goose]

Fluff

I am torn on the response. I want to think it is their attempt to be transparent and behave like a first world country, but I am skeptical. I encourage anyone with an interest in world events to watch this closely.

[rocky_warrior]

There is something fishy in this whole outbreak and believe it will cause serious short term supply chain issues.

Fishy or not, supply chain will be hurting.

[Goose]

rocky

Do you have inside info on the situation? If so, please share. Have you heard about meaningful delays in CNY return? Are ports to open upon return? Will future domestic travel be further hindered? Any insight would be appreciated.

Unfortunately I will be up much of the night trying to get additional info for my clients. Based off your post, it sounds like you must know something.

[rocky_warrior]

Based off your post, it sounds like you must know something.

Sorry goose, got on a flight right after my post.  Sorry to disappoint, I only know that you can't tell that many people to stay home and not affect production and productivity.

Good luck in your fact finding - sounds like information out of there is being heavily scrutinized.

[Goose]

rocky

All good. Arby's coupons for everyone!!!

[forgetful]

IMO, the Chinese government is hiding something or overreacting. Thus far not even close to being as deadly as SARS, yet they sounded the alarm. There is more to this story to come, I believe. Something does not add to me.

I traveled throughout the SARS outbreak and few clients get rattled. I fielded a dozen calls today from nervous clients. China was rocked by trade war and causing alarm has caught my attention. There is something fishy in this whole outbreak and believe it will cause serious short term supply chain issues.

Goose, a big difference in this virus and SARS is that this virus is contagious during the incubation period (before symptoms show up), that incubation period is 14-days. So for 2-weeks infected individuals are walking around as infectious agents. On top of that, some reports are saying it is contagious on contact.

Those two combined, if true, make this very dangerous, even with lower fatality rates. Honestly, if you were to weaponize a virus, these are two of the traits you would want, the other, being a higher fatality rate. Fortunately, all three are not at play here, but there could be fear of mutations making it more deadly.

[MU Fan in Connecticut]

My company's China plant is on Chinese New Year shut down and from what I understand the shut down has been extended to at least Feb 7.

[Goose]

MU Fan

Where is your factory located? Most of the workers local or transplants from the north?

[MU Fan in Connecticut]

MU Fan

Where is your factory located? Most of the workers local or transplants from the north?

Zhongshan right near Macau.

[Benny B]

Honestly, if you were to weaponize a virus, these are two of the traits you would want, the other, being a higher fatality rate. Fortunately, all three are not at play here, but there could be fear of mutations making it more deadly.

Interesting.  That might explain all the secrecy and misinformation early on. 

[Hards Alumni]

My company's China plant is on Chinese New Year shut down and from what I understand the shut down has been extended to at least Feb 7.

From what I have heard on NPR that seems to be somewhat typical.  I've also heard that this virus won't even reach peak infection rate until April.  So we have quite a bit of time to let it ride.

[StillAWarrior]

Goose, a big difference in this virus and SARS is that this virus is contagious during the incubation period (before symptoms show up), that incubation period is 14-days. So for 2-weeks infected individuals are walking around as infectious agents. On top of that, some reports are saying it is contagious on contact.

Those two combined, if true, make this very dangerous, even with lower fatality rates. Honestly, if you were to weaponize a virus, these are two of the traits you would want, the other, being a higher fatality rate. Fortunately, all three are not at play here, but there could be fear of mutations making it more deadly.

I highlight that because, based upon what I've read, it's not clear yet that it is true that it can be spread before the patient is symptomatic. A Chinese official reported that, but others seem to question whether there is evidence to support the claim.  I know it's being reported in many corners as an established fact.  Let's hope it turns out to be incorrect.

[Hards Alumni]

So first cases in India and Philippines... 81,000 suspected sick... reports of Chinese cremating dead before identifying them.

Still not concerned?

[StillAWarrior]

So first cases in India and Philippines... 81,000 suspected sick... reports of Chinese cremating dead before identifying them.

Still not concerned?

I guess it depends on what you mean by "concerned".  I am concerned that a lot of people are getting sick and probably many will die.  To me, that's just a natural human concern. I am not particularly concerned that this virus will have a significant impact in the United States. So, if you're asking about the first of those, then yes, I am concerned. If you're asking about the second (which, in my opinion, is what a lot of people are asking), then no, I'm not concerned.

[Goose]

I am quite concerned, both in regards to human life and economic impact. I mentioned a couple days of ago the possibility of the Chinese government not sharing all info on this virus and I believe that to be the case. I have been constant contact with our staff (over ten) on a daily basis and all the Chinese nationals continue to tell me this is not a big problem and the government has done a great job and everything under control. I work/communicate with these folks 365 days a year and know them well. IMO, they are blindly following the leader.  Our lead Guangzhou manager (Hong Kong native) has a much higher sense of concern. She is not someone that rattles easily and her response is much more of concern.

In regards to economic impact, a lot of very big decisions have been made over the past week over this virus that will have a real economic impact globally. Aside from supply chain disruptions, the response of airlines, border closing, visa restrictions indicate to me that someone has insider info. These decisions are not made lightly and I believe it is indicated that this virus is more severe than being reported.

I believe the upcoming weeks is going to be President Xi's biggest challenge to date. If this virus continues to gain steam there is the chance of social unrest. There is a shortage of medical supplies and cabin fever is setting in. We have seen the young people in Hong Kong rally in an attempt for a better HK and better life and at some point that was/is going to happen in China. Not sure if this could be the tipping point, but I believe there is real chance of it.

I make a living almost solely in China and am more concerned about the big picture fallout than my own business. FYI--I am quite concerned on how our business will navigate the upcoming weeks/months, but more confident in our ability to be nimble than this serious issue being contained.

[Macallan 18]

Good thing Tony Romo is staffing the Corona hotline to assure people everything is fine.

A Disturbing Number of People Think Coronavirus Is Related to Corona Beer -
https://www.vice.com/en_us/article/qjdvvd/a-disturbing-number-of-people-think-coronavirus-is-related-to-corona-beer

[Hards Alumni]

I am quite concerned, both in regards to human life and economic impact. I mentioned a couple days of ago the possibility of the Chinese government not sharing all info on this virus and I believe that to be the case. I have been constant contact with our staff (over ten) on a daily basis and all the Chinese nationals continue to tell me this is not a big problem and the government has done a great job and everything under control. I work/communicate with these folks 365 days a year and know them well. IMO, they are blindly following the leader.  Our lead Guangzhou manager (Hong Kong native) has a much higher sense of concern. She is not someone that rattles easily and her response is much more of concern.

In regards to economic impact, a lot of very big decisions have been made over the past week over this virus that will have a real economic impact globally. Aside from supply chain disruptions, the response of airlines, border closing, visa restrictions indicate to me that someone has insider info. These decisions are not made lightly and I believe it is indicated that this virus is more severe than being reported.

I believe the upcoming weeks is going to be President Xi's biggest challenge to date. If this virus continues to gain steam there is the chance of social unrest. There is a shortage of medical supplies and cabin fever is setting in. We have seen the young people in Hong Kong rally in an attempt for a better HK and better life and at some point that was/is going to happen in China. Not sure if this could be the tipping point, but I believe there is real chance of it.

I make a living almost solely in China and am more concerned about the big picture fallout than my own business. FYI--I am quite concerned on how our business will navigate the upcoming weeks/months, but more confident in our ability to be nimble than this serious issue being contained.

This sort of stuff is what I meant with my comment.  Sure loss of life may be globally insignificant, but the financial losses may be felt for months. 

What's that famous saying?  Civilization is only nine meals away from anarchy?

[🏀]

What's that famous saying?  Civilization is only nine meals away from anarchy?

Yep, just past the Kwik Trip on the right.

[jsglow]

Guess you businessmen ain't going to China anytime soon.

[MU82]

I am quite concerned, both in regards to human life and economic impact. I mentioned a couple days of ago the possibility of the Chinese government not sharing all info on this virus and I believe that to be the case. I have been constant contact with our staff (over ten) on a daily basis and all the Chinese nationals continue to tell me this is not a big problem and the government has done a great job and everything under control. I work/communicate with these folks 365 days a year and know them well. IMO, they are blindly following the leader.  Our lead Guangzhou manager (Hong Kong native) has a much higher sense of concern. She is not someone that rattles easily and her response is much more of concern.

In regards to economic impact, a lot of very big decisions have been made over the past week over this virus that will have a real economic impact globally. Aside from supply chain disruptions, the response of airlines, border closing, visa restrictions indicate to me that someone has insider info. These decisions are not made lightly and I believe it is indicated that this virus is more severe than being reported.

I believe the upcoming weeks is going to be President Xi's biggest challenge to date. If this virus continues to gain steam there is the chance of social unrest. There is a shortage of medical supplies and cabin fever is setting in. We have seen the young people in Hong Kong rally in an attempt for a better HK and better life and at some point that was/is going to happen in China. Not sure if this could be the tipping point, but I believe there is real chance of it.

I make a living almost solely in China and am more concerned about the big picture fallout than my own business. FYI--I am quite concerned on how our business will navigate the upcoming weeks/months, but more confident in our ability to be nimble than this serious issue being contained.

Wow, that's intense, Goose.

I hope it ends up not being as bad as some fear, and that it doesn't disrupt your situation too much.