[Cracked Sidewalks]Value Add projects MU 93rd; Burton 36% chance at NBA

[jesmu84]

Sorry...you aren't understanding how this works.  The 12.36 DOES include the data from the Freshman (Burton).  YOu'll note in Equalizer's analysis that the actual Value Add for all returning players last season was a paltry 10.40 - but we finished the season at 12.36  (which illustrates the impact of the freshman...Burton I'm sure accounted for close to the 1.96 disparity between the output of all returning players and then the end of season results for 2014 with the freshman factored in.)

The point is, is that if the returning players performed as expected per the model, and plus the freshman's contribution of 1.96 Value Add for last season our projected pre-season value add of 21.65 plus the freshman's contribution would have put us at 23.61....which would have put us neck and neck with Nova and Creighton.

This data further shows how God awful Buzz was last year.  He either failed miserably as a coach, or in his player development.  My argument of course all year long was that playing a guy - who we now know statistically speaking -  brought ZERO value add more minutes than any other player, and another guy the 2nd most minutes who brought a paltry .77 Value Add - was and would lead to a disaster. 

The only people who went up were Todd (who should have played more minutes) and Jake. Everyone else went down. The situation was certainly abysmal on multiple levels and for multiple reasons.

[mu03eng]

Sorry...you aren't understanding how this works.  The 12.36 DOES include the data from the Freshman (Burton).  YOu'll note in Equalizer's analysis that the actual Value Add for all returning players last season was a paltry 10.40 - but we finished the season at 12.36  (which illustrates the impact of the freshman...Burton I'm sure accounted for close to the 1.96 disparity between the output of all returning players and then the end of season results for 2014 with the freshman factored in.)

The point is, is that if the returning players performed as expected per the model, and plus the freshman's contribution of 1.96 Value Add for last season our projected pre-season value add of 21.65 plus the freshman's contribution would have put us at 23.61....which would have put us neck and neck with Nova and Creighton.

This data further shows how God awful Buzz was last year.  He either failed miserably as a coach, or in his player development.  My argument of course all year long was that playing a guy - who we now know statistically speaking -  brought ZERO value add more minutes than any other player, and another guy the 2nd most minutes who brought a paltry .77 Value Add - was and would lead to a disaster. 

Oh I get how it works, I just missed that the part where 12.36 included the freshmen.  However as always being condescending is totally helpful in engendering conversation.

My point is also valid, with the freshman while our team value add was significantly lower than projected but we finished a spot ahead of our projected ranking.  So that means the Big East as a whole in general and the bottom specifically underperformed.  Correct?

By all means ignore my point in favor of going over the untread "Buzz is a terrible coach and you people who have nuance clearly don't know what you are talking about" territory

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

[tower912]

Banhammer.   Isn't that the guy who did the Miami Vice theme?

[NersEllenson]

Oh I get how it works, I just missed that the part where 12.36 included the freshmen.  However as always being condescending is totally helpful in engendering conversation.

My point is also valid, with the freshman while our team value add was significantly lower than projected but we finished a spot ahead of our projected ranking.  So that means the Big East as a whole in general and the bottom specifically underperformed.  Correct?

By all means ignore my point in favor of going over the untread "Buzz is a terrible coach and you people who have nuance clearly don't know what you are talking about" territory

I wasn't being condescending Eng - was pointing out that you are interpreting the data wrong...and it seems you still are.  What the model projected going into the season was that we'd be a 21.65 Value Add.  What we finished was 12.36..even with the benefit of the freshman's contributions.  Of course taking END OF SEASON DATA from a season where we performed like crap....that should lead to the team finishing in the appropriate slot in the standings...or perhaps 1 slot higher than anticipated. 

The fallacy here was some were trying to suggest the model predicted this outcome BEFORE the season started.  It didn't.  As far as the strength of the Big East?? That has nothing to do with this.  Ironically, you are missing the nuance here.

"We finished a spot ahead of our projected ranking?"  Is your point that we finished 6th in Big East ahead of Seton Hall...yet their Value Add was slightly better than ours?  If so...fine...but that isn't really relevant to anything.  Going into the season Value Add thought we'd be A LOT BETTER...as did every one of our fans who was honest with themselves and not trying to make excuses to save face for their inaccurate takes on Buzz's coaching last season.

[The Equalizer]

I wasn't being condescending Eng - was pointing out that you are interpreting the data wrong...and it seems you still are.  What the model projected going into the season was that we'd be a 21.65 Value Add.  What we finished was 12.36..even with the benefit of the freshman's contributions.  Of course taking END OF SEASON DATA from a season where we performed like crap....that should lead to the team finishing in the appropriate slot in the standings...or perhaps 1 slot higher than anticipated.  

The fallacy here was some were trying to suggest the model predicted this outcome BEFORE the season started.  It didn't.  As far as the strength of the Big East?? That has nothing to do with this.  Ironically, you are missing the nuance here.

"We finished a spot ahead of our projected ranking?"  Is your point that we finished 6th in Big East ahead of Seton Hall...yet their Value Add was slightly better than ours?  If so...fine...but that isn't really relevant to anything.  Going into the season Value Add thought we'd be A LOT BETTER...as did every one of our fans who was honest with themselves and not trying to make excuses to save face for their inaccurate takes on Buzz's coaching last season.

I'm beginning to wonder if Sultan used John's 2013 returning player + expected improvement, or simply looked at the 2014 (which is season-end numbers) to come up with his "projected" standings.  It would be no surprise that end-of-season value add reflects end-of-season standings.

If you take the other teams returning 2013 players, add John's expected improvement (102% for frosh, 31% for sophs, 18% for juniors), lets just say you don't have to run 8 more teams to see that MU is NOT projected as the seventh place team--in fact based on applying the average improvement (102% for rising frosh, 31% for sophs, and 18% for juniors) as applied to the returning players, we would have been projected to finish ahead of eventual league champion Villanova.

Villanova

Player	2013	Improvement	2014 Expected	2914 Actual
Pinkston, JayVaughn	3.67	0.31	4.81	5.02
Hilliard, Darrun	3	0.31	3.93	4.28
Arcidiacono, Ryan	2.03	1.02	4.1	2.55
Bell, James	2.02	0.18	2.38	5.21
Ochefu, Daniel	1.09	1.02	2.2	2.38
Yacoubou, Achraf	1.07	0.31	1.4	x
Chennault, Tony	0.89	0.18	1.05	1.21
TOTAL	-	-	19.87	20.65

Recall our "projected" Value add was 21.52, while we finished far below that.  Villanova's returning players delivered an above average improvement.

If our returning players showed the same improvement as Villanova's, we would have been neck and neck for the league title--they got more from their frosh (an addtional 4.86 while we got 1.96).

[GGGG]

I'm beginning to wonder if Sultan used John's 2013 returning player + expected improvement, or simply looked at the 2014 (which is season-end numbers)

If you would read the entire thread, you would note that I already admitted that error.

[The Equalizer]

If you would read the entire thread, you would note that I already admitted that error.

To be fair, you never actually responded to my post directly. Plus you generically admitted to not understanding the data--I don't think you ever specifically said what the mistake was.

Now if we could only get Lenny to admit he was wrong.  

You've said it, I've said it, others have said it. Marquette's "expectations" last year (as set by the conference coaches, AP, USA Today and some of our flat earth posters) were ridiculous - especially without Blue, Du Wilson and McKay. All the hand wringing over the coach "changing", not trying to win, etc., was nonsense. Buzz the coach was who he always was, Buzz the GM was the guy caught short on talent. Can't wait to see Ners and his posse weigh in and attack Pudner's accurate and prescient analysis of last year's team - had John published them earlier here maybe it could have prevented some of the silliness of the past 8 months.

Can't wait to see Lenny's humble, contrite admission that the pre-season expectations were actually in line with nothing more than average improvement from our returning talent.  Maybe this now ends the silliness of those flat earth posters who continue to defend Buzz's piss-poor coaching performance.

[GGGG]

To be fair, you never actually responded to my post directly. Plus you generically admitted to not understanding the data--I don't think you ever specifically said what the mistake was.

When Ners pointed out what the data meant, I realized my mistake and said as much.

I didn't realize that I had to respond to every single person who posted in the thread.

[MU82]

To be fair, you never actually responded to my post directly. Plus you generically admitted to not understanding the data--I don't think you ever specifically said what the mistake was.

Now if we could only get Lenny to admit he was wrong.  

Can't wait to see Lenny's humble, contrite admission that the pre-season expectations were actually in line with nothing more than average improvement from our returning talent.  Maybe this now ends the silliness of those flat earth posters who continue to defend Buzz's piss-poor coaching performance.

I didn't need Value Add or any other advanced metrics to see that Buzz had a very bad season.

And I was a big Buzz guy. Hell, I might have been the very first accused of being a "slurper" by a certain poster I now happily have on ignore!

[Lennys Tap]

I'll be happy to wager anything you or Sultan want regarding Pudner's statistical predictions for this upcoming year putting MU as a 7th place finisher in the Big East.  Just let me know what.  MU will finish better than 7th.  I know you buy into his analysis as THe Bible and foolproof - but I'm happy to go with my eye test analysis.  Don't care that we have a rookie coach. Don't care that we lost 4 starters...and our THREE leading scorers off of last year's team.  What I do know is Buzz was god awful last year.  I know Derrick Wilson won't play 31 minutes a game.  And I know Burton won't play 12 minutes, and Dawson and JJJ won't have any DNPs as they did last season.  And...I know JJJ and Dawson are far more talented than what they were ABLE to show last season due to Buzz's awful coaching.

Ners -first, an apology. When Sultan published his "Pudner Projections" for the 2013-14 I assumed they were correct. Evidently they were not. So, my mistake - mea culpa. I'm still unclear as to where John had us projected last year - maybe he can clear that up for all of us.

Second, a warning. You have acquired a new ally, one who used to be Chico's Distorter in Chief. Be careful.

[GGGG]

Ners -first, an apology. When Sultan published his "Pudner Projections" for the 2013-14 I assumed they were correct. Evidently they were not. So, my mistake - mea culpa. I'm still unclear as to where John had us projected last year - maybe he can clear that up for all of us.

I apologize to you too Lenny.

[Lennys Tap]

I apologize to you too Lenny.

No need - numbers were published in good faith. Ironic that a guy whose "facts" are routinely skewed to reach his preferred conclusions would jump down your throat for an innocent mistake, but that's our very own Equalizer.

[The Equalizer]

No need - numbers were published in good faith. Ironic that a guy whose "facts" are routinely skewed to reach his preferred conclusions would jump down your throat for an innocent mistake, but that's our very own Equalizer.

1.  You are the one who has the preferred conclusion. I prefer those based on real facts.

For some strange reason, you routinely get mad at me because I often need to correct your mistakes by pointing out the facts that you ignored or skewed in attempting to reach your preferred conclusion.

Need I remind you of your habit of using post junior-year HS rankings from guys like Butler or Crowder instead of recognizing they had attained JUCO AA or JUCO POY status before arriving at MU?  Or your habit of continually suggesting that Mbakwe, Christopherson and Hazel all left Marquette before Buzz became coach, even after the facts have been presented to you otherwise? 

2.  In this case, nothing was skewed by me. In fact, YOU are the one who used incorrect facts to reach YOUR preferred conclusion. I merely presented the REAL facts that lead to the correct conclusion.

3.  One who tosses around terms like "flat earth posters" while making his preferred (but obviously incorrect) conclusion using incorrect data is hardly making an innocent mistake.

[Lennys Tap]

1.  You are the one who has the preferred conclusion. I prefer those based on real facts.

Funniest post ever. How's that audit you and your boy promised years ago coming?

[The Equalizer]

When Ners pointed out what the data meant, I realized my mistake and said as much.

I didn't realize that I had to respond to every single person who posted in the thread.

You don't.  But at the same time, don't get chippy when at the same time I didn't analyze every single message to see if you put a response to me in one of those.

Sorry I didn't see your response to Ners. I wouldn't have said anything if I had.

[The Equalizer]

Funniest post ever. How's that audit you and your boy promised years ago coming?

You don't give yourself enough credit.

Now, THIS is funny:

You've said it, I've said it, others have said it. Marquette's "expectations" last year (as set by the conference coaches, AP, USA Today and some of our flat earth posters) were ridiculous - especially without Blue, Du Wilson and McKay. All the hand wringing over the coach "changing", not trying to win, etc., was nonsense. Buzz the coach was who he always was, Buzz the GM was the guy caught short on talent. Can't wait to see Ners and his posse weigh in and attack Pudner's accurate and prescient analysis of last year's team - had John published them earlier here maybe it could have prevented some of the silliness of the past 8 months.

We just needed this:

[hoyasincebirth]

Where can I find the 2013 Value Add numbers the Google doc only has 2016-2014. I would be interested in seeing what the preseason 2013 numbers were.

[ChicosBailBonds]

You've said it, I've said it, others have said it. Marquette's "expectations" last year (as set by the conference coaches, AP, USA Today and some of our flat earth posters) were ridiculous - especially without Blue, Du Wilson and McKay. All the hand wringing over the coach "changing", not trying to win, etc., was nonsense. Buzz the coach was who he always was, Buzz the GM was the guy caught short on talent. Can't wait to see Ners and his posse weigh in and attack Pudner's accurate and prescient analysis of last year's team - had John published them earlier here maybe it could have prevented some of the silliness of the past 8 months.

Wait....what?  The guy who over the years has told us how wonderful the preseason polls are is now saying how ridiculous they were?    No, you are wrong Lenny....this is clearly the FUNNIEST post in the bunch.

Who drove Mckay off?  Who didn't want to play for Buzz any longer?  Who redshirted Wilson?  Who had Jamil actually go backwards in progress last year?  For all the ripping you have given me and others over the years about a certain coach, your defense of Bert is off the charts on this one.

Buzz, the coach, was a moron last year.  The talent was there, several guys got WORSE or stagnated playing for him last year, one left the program after barely any time with him (smart kid), and Buzz the COACH is the one that decided what talent to put on the floor.   Seriously, this post of yours is an all-timer.

[Skatastrophy]

Where can I find the 2013 Value Add numbers the Google doc only has 2016-2014. I would be interested in seeing what the preseason 2013 numbers were.

It had been here: http://www.valueaddbasketball.com/

But that doesn't have historical values.

Here are the 2013-2014 projections for teams: http://www.crackedsidewalks.com/2012/04/projecting-2012-13-part-4-of-4.html

[Silkk the Shaka]

It had been here: http://www.valueaddbasketball.com/

But that doesn't have historical values.

Here are the 2013-2014 projections for teams: http://www.crackedsidewalks.com/2012/04/projecting-2012-13-part-4-of-4.html

That link was written in April 2012, I think that means it projects our BEast champion/E8 year, not last year.

[Lennys Tap]

Where can I find the 2013 Value Add numbers the Google doc only has 2016-2014. I would be interested in seeing what the preseason 2013 numbers were.

As would I.

[The Equalizer]

It had been here: http://www.valueaddbasketball.com/

But that doesn't have historical values.

It does.  You just have to click the link in the lower right corner that says "See all 2003-2014 Stats"

Where can I find the 2013 Value Add numbers the Google doc only has 2016-2014. I would be interested in seeing what the preseason 2013 numbers were.

You have to calculate your own preseason numbers.

Find the season end for the players from the year before, then apply the average improvement for all players in the database.

So the Value Add for a presason incoming Junior will be his sophomore Value add plus 31%. 
Frosh improve an average of 102%
Sophs improve an average of 31%
Juniors improve an average of 18%

[hoyasincebirth]

It does.  You just have to click the link in the lower right corner that says "See all 2003-2014 Stats"


You have to calculate your own preseason numbers.

Find the season end for the players from the year before, then apply the average improvement for all players in the database.

So the Value Add for a presason incoming Junior will be his sophomore Value add plus 31%. 
Frosh improve an average of 102%
Sophs improve an average of 31%
Juniors improve an average of 18%

Do it for me Cracked Sidewalks and then write an article about it  please and thanks.

[mu03eng]

Do it for me Cracked Sidewalks and then write an article about it  please and thanks.

I have a spreadsheet put together to do this, can't post it here though.

I suppose I could post something on Cracked Sidewalks on it, but not the blogger type.  Spoken word is more my bag(and barely that).