[Paint Touches] Opinion: Marquette will miss what Anderson could have been

[ZiggysFryBoy]

Family come first. Be it Juan, Lockett or any other player.

[4everwarriors]

Seriously, Juan is not hard to replace. For his size, he was a good rebounder. Otherwise, his D was nothing special and his offense was non-existent.

[brewcity77]

Seriously, Juan is not hard to replace. For his size, he was a good rebounder. Otherwise, his D was nothing special and his offense was non-existent.

Which is all easy to say after the fact, whether it's true or not. But the assumption that any of the guys we have coming in will actually be able to replace him simply because of recruiting rankings or because of some YouTube videos or AAU games they played in is completely baseless. Just as much as the idea of bringing in a senior transfer or some other unknown JUCO or freshman player.

Further, there's no way to know if Anderson wasn't on the verge of a Vander-like breakout next year. How many on this board would have said the exact same thing you just said about Vander this time last year? I'd guess at least 40% of this site would have agreed completely with that statement about Vander and probably more.

[RawdogDX]

Which is all easy to say after the fact, whether it's true or not. But the assumption that any of the guys we have coming in will actually be able to replace him simply because of recruiting rankings or because of some YouTube videos or AAU games they played in is completely baseless. Just as much as the idea of bringing in a senior transfer or some other unknown JUCO or freshman player.

Further, there's no way to know if Anderson wasn't on the verge of a Vander-like breakout next year. How many on this board would have said the exact same thing you just said about Vander this time last year? I'd guess at least 40% of this site would have agreed completely with that statement about Vander and probably more.

No, It isn't completely baseless.  As you just said, it is based on rankings (professional judgments rendered after a ton of research) and what we've seen on the court from Juan.

I wouldn't have been part of that 40%.  Here are their stat lines from sophomore years:
Vander Blue      25.7  8.4  4.5  2.6  1.1  0.2  2.2   .413  .708  .258
Juan Anderson  13.0  2.7  2.9  0.9  0.6  0.3  0.8   .330  .567  .286

BTW, I didn't realize that Juan was such a bad FT shooter till now.

[RawdogDX]

That's a silly statement. Juan Anderson was the #81 RSCI player in his class. As of the last RSCI rankings, our incoming class included #52 Burton, #57 Johnson, and #60 Wilson. It might be a slight step up, but acting as though 20-30 spots is some landslide difference is ridiculous.

None of the incoming players have done as much at the D1 level as Juan has, nor have any of them demonstrated conclusively that they ever match the potential Juan has already reached. While we can all hope they will, acting as though we've already upgraded over a top-100 guy that was Marquette's top-rated 2011 recruit simply on potential is nothing more than typical Scoop overestimating expectations for new players.

If we had one player ranked above him coming in, you might have a point.  But we have three and, unless Buzz royally screwed the pooch, one of them will be able to shoot 35%, play average d, and grab a few boards.

[Stretchdeltsig]

The bottom line is winning.  And, you win, as a coach by playing dominant talent.  Juan was very energetic, but, simply not a dominant player.

[Galway Eagle]

How did this get into a fight about top 100 players?  Let's think of the top 100s Buzz has brought in based on espn: #76 Junior Cadougan (I would say didn't reach the expected potential), #79 Jeronne Maymon (Perhaps reached potential at another school), #95 Erick Williams (Definitely didn't reach potential), NR Juan Anderson (Definitely didn't reach potential), #53 Jamail Jones (Definitely didn't reach potential), #31 Jamil Wilson (Looking like he'll reach his potential), #84 Steve Taylor (looks on the right track) #31 Vander Blue (Reached potential for Junior year, shame he won't be back).  I think I would take my chances with the devil you know and can develop (Anderson) than the devil you don't and have to hope they aren't a flop (#49 Burton, #55 Wilson, #26 Johnson)

On another note I don't think I really appreciated Buzz's recruiting till I made this list.  

[GGGG]

How did this get into a fight about top 100 players?  Let's think of the top 100s Buzz has brought in based on espn: #76 Junior Cadougan (I would say didn't reach the expected potential), #79 Jeronne Maymon (Perhaps reached potential at another school), #95 Erick Williams (Definitely didn't reach potential), NR Juan Anderson (Definitely didn't reach potential),

Juan was ranked....83 in RSCI.

[GGGG]

If we had one player ranked above him coming in, you might have a point.  But we have three and, unless Buzz royally screwed the pooch, one of them will be able to shoot 35%, play average d, and grab a few boards.

The point is that Juan would have been here *with* these guys.  So yes we will miss him because Buzz hasn't replace him with anyone.

[brewcity77]

No, It isn't completely baseless.  As you just said, it is based on rankings (professional judgments rendered after a ton of research) and what we've seen on the court from Juan.

Yes, because recruiting experts never miss on 3 guys ranked in the 51-100 range 

It happens every year. The notion that those guys will automatically be better than Juan because they are ranked higher is as silly and stupid as the notion that they will all be better than Dwyane Wade because he wasn't ranked as even a 4-star by any service.

If we had one player ranked above him coming in, you might have a point.  But we have three and, unless Buzz royally screwed the pooch, one of them will be able to shoot 35%, play average d, and grab a few boards.

It could be one, it could be twelve, it doesn't matter. The law of averages does not apply here. Unless you can find the recruiting service that has never missed on 3 top-100 recruits in the same year (and I guarantee every recruiting service probably misses on at least ten times that number) there is no basis whatsoever for this line of thinking other than the classic MUScoop "grass is greener" mindset that we have about EVERY recruit that has yet to set foot on campus.

[RawdogDX]

Yes, because recruiting experts never miss on 3 guys ranked in the 51-100 range 

It happens every year. The notion that those guys will automatically be better than Juan because they are ranked higher is as silly and stupid as the notion that they will all be better than Dwyane Wade because he wasn't ranked as even a 4-star by any service.

It could be one, it could be twelve, it doesn't matter. The law of averages does not apply here. Unless you can find the recruiting service that has never missed on 3 top-100 recruits in the same year (and I guarantee every recruiting service probably misses on at least ten times that number) there is no basis whatsoever for this line of thinking other than the classic MUScoop "grass is greener" mindset that we have about EVERY recruit that has yet to set foot on campus.

That's right!  I forgot there is a 0% correlation between ranking and on courn performance 

I didn't say that all of them would be better.  But if one of them can't shoot 35% and be a mediocre defender then we are screwed.  Is that your prediction?  That none of our three freshmen will shoot 35% or play average defense?  That none of them can put up 4 ppg?  Cause that is what it would take to replace anderson. 

The Law of Averages does apply here.  I am willing to bet that one of our top 75 recruits will be playing better than anderson did this past season.  If we had one player to count on then that would decrease my confidence greatly. 

I trust in my coach to evaluate talent, i think that scouts know more than I do.  You can point to times where they were wrong, or times i was wrong, and say that I shouldn't assume that one of our recruits will be able to put up 4 ppg, but i do and will continue to do so.

[RawdogDX]

The point is that Juan would have been here *with* these guys.  So yes we will miss him because Buzz hasn't replace him with anyone.

If minutes weren't a finite commodity then you would be correct.  But they are.  No Juan means more to go around for more deserving players.  We have replaced his time on the court with players who have proven to be better (Taylor and Wilson) and players that the coaches believe will be better (new class).  This guy couldn't get to the hoop, didn't draw fouls, shoot poorly, couldn't shoot FTs, and was an avg (at best) defender. 

It is hard to be rational about a hard worker who is said to be a great person, but tell me what he does on the court that you don't think other players can improve on?

[GGGG]

If minutes weren't a finite commodity then you would be correct.  But they are.  No Juan means more to go around for more deserving players.  We have replaced his time on the court with players who have proven to be better (Taylor and Wilson) and players that the coaches believe will be better (new class).  This guy couldn't get to the hoop, didn't draw fouls, shoot poorly, couldn't shoot FTs, and was an avg (at best) defender. 

Who do you know who is "more deserving?"  Can you see the future?  Having a player like Juan around is MUCH better than having an empty chair.  At the very least he is an option should everyone else prove to be in over their heads.

It is hard to be rational about a hard worker who is said to be a great person, but tell me what he does on the court that you don't think other players can improve on?

I don't know.  Unlike you apparently, I don't have the ability to see into the future.

Seriously, how hard a concept is this to understand.  None of us have seen Burton, Duane or JJJ play a college basketball game.  I have no clue if they can do anything better than Juan....especially a junior class Juan who has two years under his belt and another summer to improve.

And I'm probably one of the more rational people here about our player's abilities...

[RawdogDX]

Who do you know who is "more deserving?"  Can you see the future?  Having a player like Juan around is MUCH better than having an empty chair.  At the very least he is an option should everyone else prove to be in over their heads.



I don't know.  Unlike you apparently, I don't have the ability to see into the future.

Seriously, how hard a concept is this to understand.  None of us have seen Burton, Duane or JJJ play a college basketball game.  I have no clue if they can do anything better than Juan....especially a junior class Juan who has two years under his belt and another summer to improve.

And I'm probably one of the more rational people here about our player's abilities...

Please stop with the see into the future crap, stop acting like an arrogant prick and don't try to talk down to me. 
I have seen the recent past and it is Juan Anderson not being good.  If you are the only one defending him and the best you can say is that he's a 'warm body', then that says something. 
We can agree to disagree here, you be depressed about losing a warm body.   I on the other hand will be ok with him leaving because if he stayed he'd eat up minutes that could go to a warm body with skills. 

[GGGG]

Please stop with the see into the future crap, stop acting like an arrogant prick and don't try to talk down to me. 

BWAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!!!!!

I have seen the recent past and it is Juan Anderson not being good.  If you are the only one defending him and the best you can say is that he's a 'warm body', then that says something. 
We can agree to disagree here, you be depressed about losing a warm body.   I on the other hand will be ok with him leaving because if he stayed he'd eat up minutes that could go to a warm body with skills. 

Oh please.  Like you know enough to correctly assess the "skills" of three incoming freshmen, who you at best have seen only a few minutes here and there, and how that will translate to high level college basketball?  And you are calling *me* arrogant?  Too funny.

And I want Juan around more than because he's a warm body.  You should be able to comprehend my argument up above.  I clearly am not saying that Juan is better.  Cause I really don't know.

[RawdogDX]

BWAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!!!!!


Oh please.  Like you know enough to correctly assess the "skills" of three incoming freshmen, who you at best have seen only a few minutes here and there, and how that will translate to high level college basketball?  And you are calling *me* arrogant?  Too funny.

And I want Juan around more than because he's a warm body.  You should be able to comprehend my argument up above.  I clearly am not saying that Juan is better.  Cause I really don't know.

You'll have to point to the point where I claimed to know a thing about our incoming class other than the rankings and the fact that they were recruited by Buzz.  That is enough for me to think that at least one of them will be able to put up 4 points a game and play avg defense.  What I've said over and over is that Juan had enough PT to convince me that he's not good.  Just keep acting like i'm pretending to know something about our recruits.  I don't, not a thing.  But i trust in other people that do.
 
You can clearly see the rational of this argument: Losing a guy who isn't good, especially when you have a highly touted class, isn't a big deal and could be a case of addition by subtraction. 

[GGGG]

You'll have to point to the point where I claimed to know a thing about our incoming class other than the rankings and the fact that they were recruited by Buzz.

Oh brother....now you are going to back peddle.

You have spent multiple posts claiming that they are going to bring more than Juan would have.  And now you are falling back on rankings?  Seriously, what is the point?

[WarriorInNYC]

I trust in my coach to evaluate talent, i think that scouts know more than I do.  You can point to times where they were wrong, or times i was wrong, and say that I shouldn't assume that one of our recruits will be able to put up 4 ppg, but i do and will continue to do so.

We can agree to disagree here, you be depressed about losing a warm body.   I on the other hand will be ok with him leaving because if he stayed he'd eat up minutes that could go to a warm body with skills. 

So you think Buzz is great at evaluating talent, but then that if Juan had stayed he'd be stealing a "more talented player's" minutes?  Somehow I think this argument is a little flawed.

If you trust Buzz at evaluating talent, he would be able to recognize that these other guys are more talented than Juan no?  And then Juan wouldn't play, correct?  So then he really wouldn't be eating up those other minutes....

I also, am disappointed that Juan is leaving.  I had a conversation with another MU alum back at a happy hour in DC and we spoke about Juan.  I truly thought his senior year he would be the ultimate "glue guy".  He type that would average 7 ppg and 6 rpg and also have the ability to drop 16 points in conference play.  It would have been nice to see his development continue at MU.  And also, I thought the second half of the season he showed the ability to get to the rim, just not the ability to finish.  Sounds kinda like a certain guard who also was a sophomore last year....

[flash]

I'm sad to see Juan leave, but by no means am I losing sleep over it.  He was a solid "glue guy" with a pretty average ceiling.  He never once wowed me in any game during his first 2 years.  It's possible that he could have developed into a solid 7pts 5rebs per game guy.  He is very replaceable and Marquette will not miss him.  He reminded me a lot of Joe Fulce, who was a solid player, but by no means a game changer.  I wish him luck where ever he ends up. 

[Markusquette]

Just a hunch, but I think Juan's confidence and nerves may have gotten the best of him these first two years.  He made quite a few mishaps and just based on watching him play I think even at the end of this last year he was still getting used to the next level.  I don't think he quite figured out how to utilize his offensive game and any bonehead play he made got him benched.  He just didn't get into the flow much....like Jamail Jones.  Both shot and frequently missed three pointers and other than a bit of hustle neither really looked comfortable out there.  

Not every player has cold blood and the X Factor.  They both looked timid as opposed to guys like Jae, DJO and Vander who have those qualities.  With that said I think Jones and Juan could have been special had they stuck around and gained more confidence their last two years at MU.

[Canned Goods n Ammo]

Except that time we had 3 start from game 1. JJJ will get loads of minutes. Juan chose correctly based on getting guaranteed playing time at least.

Frosh. rarely make a significant impact. There is data to support this.

http://www.muscoop.com/index.php?topic=38359.0

Juan as a junior would probably be a more effective player than the incoming guys. That's just how things work. 

[GGGG]

Except that time we had 3 start from game 1. JJJ will get loads of minutes. Juan chose correctly based on getting guaranteed playing time at least.

Juan's transfer had nothing to do with potential playing time.

[Badgerhater]

Switchables are replaceable.

[esotericmindguy]

Frosh. rarely make a significant impact. There is data to support this.

http://www.muscoop.com/index.php?topic=38359.0

Juan as a junior would probably be a more effective player than the incoming guys. That's just how things work. 

Based on Sugar's table:

RSCI 51-60 is where JJJ, Burton & Wilson fall: 37% of minutes - 98.8 Ortg - 20% of Poss
Juan Anerson: 32% of minutes - 88.5 Ortg - 16.5% of Poss

I think MU will be ok...

[Canned Goods n Ammo]

Based on Sugar's table:

RSCI 51-60 is where JJJ, Burton & Wilson fall: 37% of minutes - 98.8 Ortg - 20% of Poss
Juan Anerson: 32% of minutes - 88.5 Ortg - 16.5% of Poss

I think MU will be ok...

Right, but I think you have to consider what improvement Juan would have made. It's certainly not an exact science, but you have to make some projection for his improvement.

I'll defer to Sugar.