Conference Only KP Numbers

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

KenPom has a feature that allows you to look at the offensive and defensive efficiency numbers of teams solely in conference play. Good way to see how a team is playing against its peers, filtering out garbage games from the non-conference season. Essentially the higher the offensive number the better and the lower the defensive number the better. To get the overall efficiency score, you subtract the defensive number from the offensive number.

The current numbers for the BEast (including the DePaul debacle):

1. Marquette 14.0 overall (113.3 offense, 99.3 defense)
2. St. John's 12.9 overall (103.5 offense, 90.6 defense)
3. Villanova 9.2 overall (119.7 offense, 110.5 defense)
4. UConn 7.8 overall (119.7 offense, 111.9 defense)
5. Xavier 3.9 overall (109.3 offense, 105.4 defense)
6. Georgetown 2.5 overall (96.8 offense, 94.3 defense)
7. Creighton 0 overall (106.8 offense, 106.8 defense)
8. Providence -4.3 overall (106.1 offense, 110.4 defense)
9. Seton Hall -10.5 overall (108.1 offense, 118.6 defense)
10. Butler -13 overall (100.6 offense, 113.6 defense)
11. DePaul -23 overall (96.6 offense, 119.6 defense)

Lotta basketball left, but so far we have been the best team in the conference with only one team somewhat close to us.

[GB Warrior]

Interesting, thanks for sharing. A good barometer for how this team is doing despite what it's felt like the last couple of games. Everything still in front of them.

[Uncle Rico]

KenPom has a feature that allows you to look at the offensive and defensive efficiency numbers of teams solely in conference play. Good way to see how a team is playing against its peers, filtering out garbage games from the non-conference season. Essentially the higher the offensive number the better and the lower the defensive number the better. To get the overall efficiency score, you subtract the offensive number from the defensive number.

The current numbers for the BEast (including the DePaul debacle):

1. Marquette 14.0 overall (113.3 offense, 99.3 defense)
2. St. John's 12.9 overall (103.5 offense, 90.6 defense)
3. Villanova 9.2 overall (119.7 offense, 110.5 defense)
4. UConn 7.8 overall (119.7 offense, 111.9 defense)
5. Xavier 3.9 overall (109.3 offense, 105.4 defense)
6. Georgetown 2.5 overall (96.8 offense, 94.3 defense)
7. Creighton 0 overall (106.8 offense, 106.8 defense)
8. Providence -4.3 overall (106.1 offense, 110.4 defense)
9. Seton Hall -10.5 overall (108.1 offense, 118.6 defense)
10. Butler -13 overall (100.6 offense, 113.6 defense)
11. DePaul -23 overall (96.6 offense, 119.6 defense)

Lotta basketball left, but so far we have been the best team in the conference with only one team somewhat close to us.

We suck

[geps]

With six games left against #2,3, and 4. Yikes

[tower912]

Opportunities for awesomeness, you mean.

[MUfan12]

Defense has to get more solid. It sounds crazy since they're top 20 nationally, but the eFG allowed is not good. Being completely propped up by TOs.

[Shooter McGavin]

Opportunities for awesomeness, you mean.

Yep.  Glad we are not in a crappy conference (although I know it's a down year) and have opportunities to play a lot of good teams down the stretch.  MU should win their share.  Can't imagine what good teams from the SEC or Big 12 are saying. "Oh boy we have to play another good team?!". 

[Newsdreams]

Defense has to get more solid. It sounds crazy since they're top 20 nationally, but the eFG allowed is not good. Being completely propped up by TOs.

Well basically TOs is what has been winning us games lately. Had 10 steals last night, DePaul had 16 TOs to MU's 6.

[GB Warrior]

Defense has to get more solid. It sounds crazy since they're top 20 nationally, but the eFG allowed is not good. Being completely propped up by TOs.

This is who they are. And it hasn't been particularly volatile for them.

In my mind, getting something out of the bench unit and getting Kam back on track is what will pace this team.

[MUfan12]

This is who they are. And it hasn't been particularly volatile for them.

In my mind, getting something out of the bench unit and getting Kam back on track is what will pace this team.

I don't disagree, but they can definitely be more solid guarding the ball than they have been.

[tower912]

I don't disagree, but they can definitely be more solid guarding the ball than they have been.

This ties into my thought about reconsidering switching 1-5.  Opponents are looking to and getting switches leaving Ben on a guard and Chase or Stevie guarding a big.  This was really noticeable when it was Ben and Sean getting switched.   Ben isn't the unicorn Oso was.  He is quick enough, but can get burned trying to stay with a quick, driving guard from 25 feet out all of the way to the basket.   MU'S guards are good, but them rasslin post players is not what they are best at.   Plus, they reflexively help on drives, as they should, leading to dump offs.

This is not nearly as egregious as when Theo would be guarding the perimeter while Rowsey and Howard collapsed on the post.   But it is a parallel theme.   It is a fine line and a philosophical as well as physical adjustment.

MU opponents have made adjustments to attack MU.  What is the counter?  Which is a fun question to ask at 15-2, 6-0, #7.

[GB Warrior]

This ties into my thought about reconsidering switching 1-5.  Opponents are looking to and getting switches leaving Ben on a guard and Chase or Stevie guarding a big.  This was really noticeable when it was Ben and Sean getting switched.   Ben isn't the unicorn Oso was.  He is quick enough, but can get burned trying to stay with a quick, driving guard from 25 feet out all of the way to the basket.   MU'S guards are good, but them rasslin post players is not what they are best at.   Plus, they reflexively help on drives, as they should, leading to dump offs.

This is not nearly as egregious as when Theo would be guarding the perimeter while Rowsey and Howard collapsed on the post.   Put it is a parallel theme.   It is a fine line and a philosophical as well as physical adjustment.

MU opponents have made adjustments to attack MU.  What is the counter?  Which is a fun question to ask at 15-2, 6-0, #7.

Can we bring brook lopez in to teach Ben the drop defense

[Jay Bee]

With six games left against #2,3, and 4. Yikes

Important to note, the figures brew is citing are RAW efficiency numbers and not adjusted fit competition (like the "normal" KenPom ratings most people cite do)

[MU82]

Can we bring brook lopez in to teach Ben the drop defense

I know you were only kidding, but there's nothing to "teach." On defense, Gold is doing the exact thing Shaka wants him to do. Ben's not going rogue and doing it on his own.

With six games left against #2,3, and 4. Yikes

Each of those teams has two games left against the Big East leader and the nation's #7 team. Yikes for them.

[Uncle Rico]

I know you were only kidding, but there's nothing to "teach." On defense, Gold is doing the exact thing Shaka wants him to do. Ben's not going rogue and doing it on his own.

Each of those teams has two games left against the Big East leader and the nation's #7 team. Yikes for them.

We suck

[TallTitan34]

With six games left against #2,3, and 4. Yikes

Thank God we don't have to play #1.

[Jockey]

Defense has to get more solid. It sounds crazy since they're top 20 nationally, but the eFG allowed is not good. Being completely propped up by TOs.

Don't you think these 2 things are linked? Take more chances and double team more often and it will lead to some easy shots for the opponent. But so far, the trade-off is worth it. That is our team's identity.

I agree, though, that the defense has some work to do. Still making too many mistakes.

[StillAWarrior]

Thank God we don't have to play #1.

Unbalanced conference schedules are stupid.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

With six games left against #2,3, and 4. Yikes

Important to note, the figures brew is citing are RAW efficiency numbers and not adjusted fit competition (like the "normal" KenPom ratings most people cite do)

Correct, but also important to note that #2 and #4 need to play 5 games each against the top 4 (including 2 against #1) and #4 needs to play 4 games against the top 4 (including 2 against #1).

The team that could have an interesting second half is Xavier. They have already played each of the top 4 once and will play Marquette, St. John's, and UConn for the second team each over their next three games. Meaning 7/8 of their games against the top 4 will be done before the end of January. KenPom currently has them favored in 8 of their final 9 games...but they really need to get a win before then. They are currently 0/6 against Q1 opponents and lost their best Q2 game. Those final 9 games? 1 Q1 opportunity and that is the 1 game they are projected to lose.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

Defense has to get more solid. It sounds crazy since they're top 20 nationally, but the eFG allowed is not good. Being completely propped up by TOs.

Agreed this is my biggest concern with our metrics right now. That being said, I noticed two things last night.

1. Last year our defensive eFG% was 49.8, this year it is 50.6%. Slightly worse but by less than a percentage point. That team finished with a top 20 defense and a sweet 16 and it wasn't defense that caused our unfortunate exit. Our current team is better at both offensive and defensive TO% than last year's team which I think makes up for the slight decrease in defensive eFG%.

2. In conference play, we are giving up 54.2% on opponents' shots inside the arc. That's good for 9th in the Big East. We are giving up 33.1% on opponents' shots outside the arc. That's a decent percentage that puts us at 6th in the Big East (and our numbers were a lot better before the last minute of OT last night. Prior to River turning into Steph Curry for 45 seconds, it was 31.3% and 3rd in the Big East). But we are also 11th in 3PA/FGA at 46%. That means that opponents have shot more threes and less two against us than any other team in the Big East. What this tells me is that part of our defensive strategy is simply denying 2P FGAs and forcing teams to shoot more threes which we are better at defending. My theory is that this is due to all the switching that we do. I think it makes us very good at denying penetration and denying entry passes. But if a team manages to penetrate or have a successful entry pass, than they are going to score. Whether that's a viable strategy? Last season says it is. We'll see how the rest of the season plays out.