2024-25 Offensive Four Factors Outlook

[Jay Bee]

We finished #45 in raw offensive efficiency and #21 in KenPom offensive AE. I expect a drop in OE this season and perhaps the only reasonable path to improve would be insane (top 10 nationally) 3-point shooting.

FT rate – We were bad (#344). Gone is our top guy, Oso, who was at 42.9%. Tyler and his 26.8% are gone. Kam and Jop have room to improve (career highs of 16.2% and 20.2%, respectively, last season), but  it's not enough. Chase, Zaide, Damarius... all guys who could (1) get more time and (2) get to the line a healthy amount.

Nonetheless, if we're giving big minutes to Kam, Jop, and Ben.. we're just not going to be a good FT rate team.

OR% - We were weak at #285 nationally.  Oso easily led the way with his 9.4%. I do think Royce is a guy who can do well on the o-boards immediately, and perhaps Ben can get near Oso...  but here again, we are going to be a weak OR% team.

TO% - Strong #30 ranking last year, turning it over at a rate of just 14.3%. Frankly, everyone was good... but when I look at what Kam will likely be doing this year, I'm not expecting a repeat of his excellent 10.7% rate. Not that I think it'll explode – just don't see it as repeatable.

Tyler was great at 18.9%, but he did a lot. How much will the sophomores and frosh play? What will Ben's profile look like (again, repeating at 11.3% doesn't seem repeatable.. I don't project him to have the same 78% 3FGA/FGA rate).

We can still be a good team at TO%, but I have trouble projecting a scenario where we'll show marked improvement.

eFG% - We're down to the most important factor as our only hope. We were great last season – 55.0%, good for #21 in the nation.. So, the problem is there isn't a ton of room to move up. A bigger problem is our 2FG% of 56.6% (#13).

Gone is Oso and his 58.0% 2FG%. Sure, Ben was at 75.8%, but those were limited attempts and a lot of dunks. Can he be a 60% guy? Certainly.

Stevie Mitchell's 63.1% would be tough to repeat. Kam's 59.6% 2FG% was great, and it's certainly possible he could wind up with something similar this year... but can't project dramatic improvement. Chase (47.6%) and the frosh may find a way to get it done... and Jop can be quite a bit better than his 50.0%.. but overall I'm not banking on improvement in 2FG% and expect it to be down a bit.

So, now we're onto 3FG%. We finished at a solid 35.2% for the season, including the NC State debacle caused by fraudulently-filled basketballs and crap rims. That was good for #106 in the country.

Once you're into the 37.2% range (a 2.0% improvement), you're sitting at about #20 nationally. If we dropped our 2FG% by 2.0% and improved 3FG% by 2.0% with last year's attempt mix, our eFG% would decline by 0.1%.

We're losing Tyler's 38.8% on 121 attempts. Not breathtaking, but very good. Kam sat at 40.6%, a career high. Could we see an uptick? I'm certainly hoping so.. but I think we're talking about 42-43%.. nothing shocking, like Markus' freshman year 54.7%.

Jop is capable of much better than 35.5%. He will be key.

Some good news is most of the rest of the group (excluding Chase and Ben) were flat out terrible shooting the ball from distance. The 'others' should improve in a group, including the sophs and frosh. Can Damarius and Royce step up and knock down high-30%? Sure.

But, it's asking a lot.. I do think it's possible to improve our 3FG%.. but at the end of the day, we're probably just offsetting declines in 2FG%, and it's going to be volatile.

Over the course of the season, I think our offense is down. It won't be bad – it'll be good. But, not flirting with elite. I'd probably be happy with something in the mid-30's, but would project more in the ballpark of the mid-40's.

Pray.

[MUbiz]

Thank you for this. The one thing I would like to see is more consistency from 3.  Yes, I know we shot 35% from 3, but we would have games under 20% (Butler - 16% from three, NC state) then we would shoot nearly 50% from 3 in other games.

[Jay Bee]

Thank you for this. The one thing I would like to see is more consistency from 3.  Yes, I know we shot 35% from 3, but we would have games under 20% (Butler - 16% from three, NC state) then we would shoot nearly 50% from 3 in other games.

I think it was 38.8% 3fg% in wins; 25.2% 3fg% in losses.

18-2 when we were better than our average (37.5 in loss to UCONN; 35.7 in loss at SH)

[MUbiz]

I think it was 38.8% 3fg% in wins; 25.2% 3fg% in losses.

18-2 when we were better than our average (37.5 in loss to UCONN; 35.7 in loss at SH)

Great stat! Thanks for confirming my thought process.

[MU82]

Good stats, JB.

I'm "realistically hopeful" that Gold, Ross and Joplin are better from 3 this season. I know you can't take away Gold's couple of bad stretches ... but if you do, he actually shot it quite well last season. Ross hopefully will be healthy this year. And Jop shot 40% his sophomore year, so it's not outlandish to think he'll get back there or close to it.

[avid1010]

This is excellent...thank you!  Is a defense post coming in the future?

[Jay Bee]

Update for noncon actual results..prior post indicated by bold:

FT rate – We were bad (#344). Gone is our top guy, Oso, who was at 42.9%. Tyler and his 26.8% are gone. Kam and Jop have room to improve (career highs of 16.2% and 20.2%, respectively, last season), but  it's not enough. Chase, Zaide, Damarius... all guys who could (1) get more time and (2) get to the line a healthy amount.

Nonetheless, if we're giving big minutes to Kam, Jop, and Ben.. we're just not going to be a good FT rate team.

We're at 28.5% this season, down from 30.1% in last year's nonconference slate. Kam and Jop are at 20.8% and 22.7%, respectively, which is a bit improved over last year's full season rates, but nothing remarkable. Chase continues to ascend (42.2% this season vs. 37.2% and 26.5% in his first two full seasons, respectively. Damarius – at 34.6% - has been good in limited minutes. Stevie Mitchell at 55.7% has been incredible, but we've still got the issues noted this summer of losing Oso and Tyler. Note that BG is sitting at 19.5%.

OR% - We were weak at #285 nationally.  Oso easily led the way with his 9.4%. I do think Royce is a guy who can do well on the o-boards immediately, and perhaps Ben can get near Oso...  but here again, we are going to be a weak OR% team.

At 30.2%, we're actually mediocre and not weak. A year ago in the nonconference, we posted a 26.4% OR%. It's been rebound by committee, with a special shot out to Stevie (7.9% -- his first three seasons he went from 3.0% to 4.2% to 6.4%). Caedin and Royce both showing they can get some o-boards (although their lack of defensive boards is concerning, especially Caedin.. was expecting this from Royce early on in his career).

Overall, pleased with being mediocre here, but will call out there are only two games that we reached over 36% -- 41.9% in the opener against Stony Brook and 44.4% in the Stonehill romp.

TO% - Strong #30 ranking last year, turning it over at a rate of just 14.3%. Frankly, everyone was good... but when I look at what Kam will likely be doing this year, I'm not expecting a repeat of his excellent 10.7% rate. Not that I think it'll explode – just don't see it as repeatable.

Tyler was great at 18.9%, but he did a lot. How much will the sophomores and frosh play? What will Ben's profile look like (again, repeating at 11.3% doesn't seem repeatable.. I don't project him to have the same 78% 3FGA/FGA rate).

We can still be a good team at TO%, but I have trouble projecting a scenario where we'll show marked improvement.

Maybe not 'marked improvement' but so far our TO% of 13.9% is excellent (14.4% in last year's noncon). Ben's shooting profile hasn't changed much, but is doing more... only a small increase (13.5% vs. 11.3%) so hoping that holds and doesn't grow if the attacking profile does.

Kam at 9.7% is sensational. He's been ridiculously good. Always has limited turnovers, but with his facilitator role expanding (and a 42.6 assist rate!), it's really good.

Now, we've only played a couple of teams good at turning over their opponents --- Maryland and Iowa State, so I still worry about the TO% rate growing a bit season over season.. but so far, it's been great.

eFG% - We're down to the most important factor as our only hope. We were great last season – 55.0%, good for #21 in the nation.. So, the problem is there isn't a ton of room to move up. A bigger problem is our 2FG% of 56.6% (#13).

Gone is Oso and his 58.0% 2FG%. Sure, Ben was at 75.8%, but those were limited attempts and a lot of dunks. Can he be a 60% guy? Certainly.

Stevie Mitchell's 63.1% would be tough to repeat. Kam's 59.6% 2FG% was great, and it's certainly possible he could wind up with something similar this year... but can't project dramatic improvement. Chase (47.6%) and the frosh may find a way to get it done... and Jop can be quite a bit better than his 50.0%.. but overall I'm not banking on improvement in 2FG% and expect it to be down a bit.

Our eFG% is 55.0%, down vs. last year's noncon compare of 56.2%. Really, it's a bit less of a decrease than I was expecting... some random mentions: Stevie is down at 54.1%... Chase big boost – not surprisingly – to 60.0%. Also at an even 60.0% is Ben, but very limited attempts. Jop had room to improve and has.. 57.1% for the year.

Kam has been unreal at 65.0% this season... but then again, if you take out the Stony Brook and Stonehill games, that mark drops to 59.1%. So, will there be dramatic improvement for the full year... I tend to think not still, but when he's on, the bottom of the bucket is like a magnet to the ball.

So, now we're onto 3FG%. We finished at a solid 35.2% for the season, including the NC State debacle caused by fraudulently-filled basketballs and crap rims. That was good for #106 in the country.

We're losing Tyler's 38.8% on 121 attempts. Not breathtaking, but very good. Kam sat at 40.6%, a career high. Could we see an uptick? I'm certainly hoping so.. but I think we're talking about 42-43%.. nothing shocking, like Markus' freshman year 54.7%.

Jop is capable of much better than 35.5%. He will be key.

Some good news is most of the rest of the group (excluding Chase and Ben) were flat out terrible shooting the ball from distance. The 'others' should improve in a group, including the sophs and frosh. Can Damarius and Royce step up and knock down high-30%? Sure.

But, it's asking a lot.. I do think it's possible to improve our 3FG%.. but at the end of the day, we're probably just offsetting declines in 2FG%, and it's going to be volatile.

We're at 36.6% from 3 vs. last year 33.8% in the nonconf. Kam is at 41.2% -- I think the continuing key as called out this summer is Jop. Or maybe Jolp here. He's just 25/79 for 31.6% on the year.

OVERALL - very pleased with the results. I'd move my 'hoping for' mid-30s summer view to a 'hoping for' low-20s. Not going to be easy. #pray

PS - I'm wheels up to MKE late PM Wednesday.., let's punish Butler.