Presto change-o! The transformation of MU's offense

[Marcus92]

Jay Bee addressed this back in January with a great article (still worth reading if you haven't already, or rereading for that matter; I've included the link below). But the turnaround has been so dramatic, I thought it was worth revisiting.

Some key metrics for comparison:

2015-16
2PT FG: 690 (20.9/game)
2PT FGA: 1316 (39.9/game)
2PT FG%: 52.4% (44th)
3PT FG: 194 (5.9/game)
3PT FGA: 572 (17.4/game)
3PT FG%: 33.9% (210th)
3PTA/FGA: 30.3% (286th)
EFG%: 52.0% (76th)

Points scored: 2517 (76.3 ppg)
Points allowed: 2448 (74.2 ppg)
Scoring differential: +2.1 ppg

2016-17
2PT FG: 539 (18.6/game)
2PT FGA: 1016 (35.0/game)
2PT FG%: 53.1% (46th)
3PT FG: 298 (10.3/game)
3PT FGA: 697 (24.0/game)
3PT FG%: 42.8% (1st)
3PTA/FGA: 40.7% (72nd)
EFG%: 57.6% (6th)

Points scored: 2391 (82.4 ppg)
Points allowed: 2160 (74.5 ppg)
Scoring differential: +8.0 ppg

I know, I know, that's a lot of stats to compare. So let's break it down.

2-pt shooting
Not a huge difference here. Attempts down approximately 10% per game compared to a year ago, shooting percentage up by what's probably a statistically insignificant amount. Enough said.

3-pt shooting
Whoa. Attempts up 38% over last season. Made shots up a whopping 75%. Where a year ago we made just under 6 threes a game, now we average more than 10. That's a 12+ point swing. And we lead the nation in 3-point percentage versus 210th last year. That's not just an improvement. It's night and day.

Effective FG%
Same story here. Last year, pretty unremarkable at 52.0% — good for 76th best in the country. This season we've cracked the top 10 in the country at 57.6%. Along with a dramatic increase in tempo (possessions per game), the difference is huge.

Where it all counts: the scoreboard
Scoring is up 6 points a game (an 8% improvement) without any appreciable increase in points allowed. As a result, our scoring differential has increased fourfold — all while facing a tougher schedule in both conference and non-conference play.

Improvement?
Without question. In fact, I think most fans underestimate just how big of an achievement this has been. Wojo and his staff have completely retooled Marquette's offense, transforming a unit ranked 116th a year ago into the 7th most efficient offense in the country.

Keep in mind — last season, Markus Howard, Andrew Rowsey, Katin Reinhardt and Sam Hauser contributed exactly nothing to the offense. Now they're responsible for 49.6% of our field goal attempts, 51.1% of our points, 76.6% of our 3-point attempts and a mind-blowing 82.2% of our three-point makes.

That's not just good coaching. It's absolutely outstanding. Wojo created an exciting, dynamic, modern offense from the ashes of a dysfunctional, one-dimensional team.

Yes, of course the defense (and the team as a whole) has a long way to go. We're not back to national prominence and the Final Four yet. But don't undersell just how far we've come in a very short period of time.

http://latenighthoops.com/marquettes-dramatic-3fg-3fgafga-improvement/#.WLhOGneZPYV

[Marcus92]

I should add a couple other key statistics:

2015-16
Turnovers: 485 (14.7/game)
TO%: 20.0 (292nd)

2016-17
Turnovers: 354 (12.2/game)
TO%: 17.2% (73rd)

We might not be among the nation's elite in protecting the ball, but we've gone from giving away more turnovers than we force to being on the positive side of the ledger.

Regaining 2-1/2 possessions a game is a major improvement. At our current average of 1.14 points per possession, that's worth almost 3 points a game — basically the same as making an extra 3-pointer.

[CTWarrior]

I'm pretty sure that we're posting those numbers against stronger overall opposition this year, too.

[Marcus92]

I'm pretty sure that we're posting those numbers against stronger overall opposition this year, too.

KenPom thinks so. Marquette's strength of schedule ranks higher for both the Big East conference and non-conference opponents.

[CAGASS24]

Exactly - there is so much discernible improv with this program over two years it's ridiculous- the only folks pissed off are the "yeah but wiscos been to two final fours since we've done anything" crowd with major insecurities about everything and those who are simply chronically depressed over life in general

I'm digging me some Wojo - and when all these long athletes we have locked up for next year arrive the D will get to where it needs to be

[muwarrior69]

Rowsey, Howard and Hauser are all retuning and if Sacar is right it sounds like Frohling has a nice outside shot as well. Let's hope the new guys coming in can help on the boards.

[Spotcheck Billy]

How can this be true? The fire Wojo folks will call this fake news!

[BlindboyPatSmith]

I know it's 'Crucifixion Season' so fire away... 

I give a great deal of credit for Marquette's new and improved offensive performance on the departure of Henry Ellenson.

[RJax55]

I know it's 'Crucifixion Season' so fire away... 

I give a great deal of credit for Marquette's new and improved offensive performance on the departure of Henry Ellenson.

No. The improvement directly comes from adding 4 new guys (Howard, Rowsey, Hauser, Reinhardt) who can all shoot the basketball and spread the floor. Its too bad Henry's not here right now. The offense would be insane.

[HoopsterBC]

No. The improvement directly comes from adding 4 new guys (Howard, Rowsey, Hauser, Reinhardt) who can all shoot the basketball and spread the floor. Its too bad Henry's not here right now. The offense would be insane.

Not sure about the offense being better, right now the best shooters are shooting it.  Cheatham and DWilson know there are better shooters out there and pass on
lots of open shots.  Henry was a volume shooter, could not shot the 3 even though he took a lot of them.  Would Henry be a team player or not?  NOT sure he would
have been.

Secondly, is Duane Wilson still hurting, on his 3 or 4 drives last game, he had no explosion getting off the ground compared to the awesome dunk he had earlier in
the year?

[RJax55]

Not sure about the offense being better, right now the best shooters are shooting it.  Cheatham and DWilson know there are better shooters out there and pass on
lots of open shots.  Henry was a volume shooter, could not shot the 3 even though he took a lot of them.  Would Henry be a team player or not?  NOT sure he would
have been.

Secondly, is Duane Wilson still hurting, on his 3 or 4 drives last game, he had no explosion getting off the ground compared to the awesome dunk he had earlier in
the year?

If HE were still here, he would be playing the 5. That would be a match-up nightmare for other teams, especially since they couldn't help due to the shooters. MU could put 5 ball-handlers on the floor and really, really spread you out. Yes, he took a lot of shots last year, but the supporting cast was not great.

Yes, Duane looked hurt against Xavier. Looked really stiff in his movements.

[HoopsterBC]

If HE were still here, he would be playing the 5. That would be a match-up nightmare for other teams, especially since they couldn't help due to the shooters. MU could put 5 ball-handlers on the floor and really, really spread you out. Yes, he took a lot of shots last year, but the supporting cast was not great.

Yes, Duane looked hurt against Xavier. Looked really stiff in his movements.

That would be a coaching decision as he played the 4 last year.  I do like your idea, but you can not 5 guys behind the 3 point line.  Sam would have been a 10 minute
type player and think I like Sam out there instead of Henry as he rarely forces a shot, and plays a lot smarter.  It would have been interesting for sure and seeing how
much time Henry has gotten for Detroit, it might have been the wise decision.  The whole rookie class last year sucked, Brogdon the 36th pick might be rookie of the year, ouch, they all should have stayed in school!

[GB Warrior]

The first thing that pops out is that our defense isn't actually worse, it just FEELS that way. All kidding (I think) aside, what a marked improvement. That obviously has not made being a Marquette fan any easier during our down stretch, but stepping back and looking holistically - WOW.

[Marcus92]

I do like your idea, but you can not 5 guys behind the 3 point line.

Think about how UW used Kaminsky. He was a good post up scorer and passer. But he could also pull a big defender outside — then hit a three pointer or drive for a mid-range jumper.

Imagine if when Luke comes up high to set a pick for Markus, Andrew or Katin, that he could roll over (if his man switches) and shoot over a much smaller defender. As it stands, nobody really has to pay attention to Luke or Matt when they have the ball on the perimeter — at least in terms of driving or shooting.

[HoopsterBC]

I think we are going to see pic and pop from Froling next year, at least, that is what it sounds like when Froling plays center.

[brewcity77]

I know it's 'Crucifixion Season' so fire away... 

I give a great deal of credit for Marquette's new and improved offensive performance on the departure of Henry Ellenson.

That would all be on the staff. If allowed the same role he had last year, Henry would indeed make us worse. If, however, he focused on better shot selection and using his raw ability to get shots for others while also being the rebounding beast he is, we'd be better.

As Henry showed those better tendencies already last year, I'm inclined to think we'd be improved with him, but obviously it's all just speculation.

[Newsdreams]

That would be a coaching decision as he played the 4 last year.  I do like your idea, but you can not 5 guys behind the 3 point line.  Sam would have been a 10 minute
type player and think I like Sam out there instead of Henry as he rarely forces a shot, and plays a lot smarter.  It would have been interesting for sure and seeing how
much time Henry has gotten for Detroit, it might have been the wise decision.  The whole rookie class last year sucked, Brogdon the 36th pick might be rookie of the year, ouch, they all should have stayed in school!

He did play the 5 sonetimes shen there was foul trouble at the position. He was being double teamed almost all the time, this year if he got double team we would be killing other teams with open shooters. Yeah right should have stayed to go against a stronger draft and not get the millions. Van Gundy is really happy to have him and he knows what he is doing.

[TSmith34, Inc.]

I know it's 'Crucifixion Season' so fire away... 

I give a great deal of credit for Marquette's new and improved offensive performance on the departure of Henry Ellenson.

I give the credit to 1) Markus, Same, Wowsy, and to a lesser extent Katin, and 2) No longer being the 7th most inexperienced team in D1

[NotAnAlum]

Thought this thread warranted a bump.  The game yesterday against Creighton was an offensive clinic.  Establish the 3, spread the floor and when they have to basically give up the paint take it in for layups.  Part of it is having the players but the staff has had to get a bunch of guys to understand their roles.
Great brand of basketball to watch.  Go MU!

[Jay Bee]

A net improvement of 2.5% in eFG% differential means a +5.8% and places Marquette in or around
the top 35 of eFG% differential, by far the most important of the four factors. Do that, and they are
in business even without improvement in rebounding.
-- @LateNightHoops, 11/10/2016

Marquette's eFG% differential is now 5.8% on the year.

[GoldenDieners32]

I should add a couple other key statistics:

2015-16
Turnovers: 485 (14.7/game)
TO%: 20.0 (292nd)

2016-17
Turnovers: 354 (12.2/game)
TO%: 17.2% (73rd)

We might not be among the nation's elite in protecting the ball, but we've gone from giving away more turnovers than we force to being on the positive side of the ledger.

Regaining 2-1/2 possessions a game is a major improvement. At our current average of 1.14 points per possession, that's worth almost 3 points a game — basically the same as making an extra 3-pointer.

This is huge for us. Maybe next year we can get it to 10

[BossplayaOtto]

That would all be on the staff. If allowed the same role he had last year, Henry would indeed make us worse. If, however, he focused on better shot selection and using his raw ability to get shots for others while also being the rebounding beast he is, we'd be better.

As Henry showed those better tendencies already last year, I'm inclined to think we'd be improved with him, but obviously it's all just speculation.

Pure speculation of course, but IMHO I would have to think that putting a Rising Sophomore, NBA-talent with HE's unique combination of size and skill set would have made this team even more potent as HE commanded so much attention, could pick & pop and could take advantage of the spacing this team generates, plus HE was a decent passer too.

Too bad we didn't get to see it play out (I always presumed HE gowne), & sure it could have been a net negative, but I'm in the camp that we would have potentially been in the 4-5 seed range with HE on this squad factoring the above plus his rebounding.

While clearly not the talent or ball-handler that HE is/was I think you'll see some of "what might have been" once Frolling is eligible next season.

[Mr. Sand-Knit]

I agree we would be a better team with henry.  But i think much of that would be to defense if he truly played the 5.  I thought we were at our best last year when luke would get in foul trouble and we played 4 gaurds around henry at the 5.

However i wonder how good our offense would be?  My greatest frustration last year was the appeared sucking up to henry and the (it seemed) team be damned attitude towards our offense.  The number of horrible threes chucked up by henry really really really hurt our team.  I mean he was simply a really bad 3 point shooter nad just chucked them with no impunity whatso ever.  Last year seemed that our number 1 goal was showcasing henry and allowing him to prove to his pundits that he actually could do what they said he couldnt, even thos they were correct. 
So i really question how he would have been handled this year.  On the ft line in zone, elbow or low block or ahort corner great.  The i gotta get 15+ shots tonight half of them being 3s, team be damned would have hurt us just as it did last year when he pit himself in those positions.  Always seemed like wojo just let him do it hoping it could buy him a second year?  This year when guys get stupid with their shot selection they come out n the assistants talk with them.  Last year it was claps of encouragement n effusive praise, clearly afraid to either knock a fragile ego or anger the parents?  Idk but it was bad.