17 Teams for 12 Spots

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

Michigan, yes absolutely. Georgia, yes....to a point.

Short of winning out and making the SEC tournament championship and us losing out, there is no way Georgia is getting in over us

[T-Bone]

We only get the easy bubbles.

[Golden Avalanche]

Nice summary TAMU.
This also illustrates that we should be even bigger Michigan and Georgia fans than we already were.

Nice summary.  Can we please just win tonight so I don't have to worry about Saturday?  Please?

Thanks for the great OP, TAMU. Lots of interesting info there.

And despite some unlucky breaks (and some poor play down the stretch sometimes), we STILL control our own destiny. Win these last 2 and we're in. I'll be watching from Hawaii!

Great summary, thanks for the effort you put into this.

Now, let all the cliche posters get after it.

Echo of the above, a very nice summarization of where we stand heading into the last four days of the season.

[Bocephys]

I think we can go 2-0 down the stretch we definitely need one in the BET

I personally think we need to win the National Title to be seriously considered for an at-large bid.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

Don't quite see how Georgia Tech is not listed on here.

They were Lunardi's last team out on the 2/27. Then they beat Pitt last night. And they still have Syracuse on the schedule (at home), along with a game or two in the ACC Tournament.

I get that Bracket Matrix doesn't have them in the first four out, but that site is flawed. It only considers how many brackets you are in. Doens't consider where you stand on the first four out on peoples brackets. Maybe most people have them as the 69th-70th team right now -- but a win over Syracuse would put them in closer to 60-70 brackets.

As much as I like Bracket Matrix, I'd rather just focus on Lunardi's Bracket; his top 8 out; then use Bracket Matrix to find any other outlier teams that weren't included in his 8 out..

I considered Georgia Tech, but I just don't think a win @Syracuse is enough to get them into the field. They would need some drastic success in the ACC tournament to break through IMHO.

[MUMountin]

I'm far from an expert, but as I look at the bubble, I think there are realistically 17 teams left that could play their way in or out of the tournament, with about 12 spots left to fill. That means, without bracket busters, you need to not finish in the bottom five of this group.

Marquette is actually in really good position. They are currently in the middle of that group of 17. Because they have no bad teams left on their schedule, they won't lose ground on the bubble because of a loss. The teams behind them must win significant games in order to pass them. Compare that to a team like USC. They have a very friendly schedule with games against Washington and Washington State. But if they lose either of them, they will drop like a rock.

Nice OP TAMU.  My only quibble is with the claim that we won't lost ground on the bubble because of a loss.  While neither loss would be fatal, I do think that each loss would likely drop us one or two spots on this list, particularly paired if the teams behind us win a game--even a red one.  So, do that twice, and I think we'll be right on that cut line. 

I think if MTSU wins out, Syracuse beats GT, or Vanderbilt beats Florida, they could all pass us if we go 0-2.  Even Wake Forest winning out would probably vault them past us.  Less certain about our chances against Cal, URI, or K-State if they win out and we go o-fer--those will be close calls.

I do think it is plausible, based on your analysis, that we could lose both games and still make it, but that will depend a lot on those teams just mentioned also stumbling.

It goes back to what one of the bubbleologists said this week--we don't really need a good win, we just need wins.  But, the only thing remaining (with the one possible exception of a Depaul first-round in BET) are good teams.  So, let's just make it easy and win (one of them).

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

Nice OP TAMU.  My only quibble is with the claim that we won't lost ground on the bubble because of a loss.  While neither loss would be fatal, I do think that each loss would likely drop us one or two spots on this list, particularly paired if the teams behind us win a game--even a red one.  So, do that twice, and I think we'll be right on that cut line. 

I think if MTSU wins out, Syracuse beats GT, or Vanderbilt beats Florida, they could all pass us if we go 0-2.  Even Wake Forest winning out would probably vault them past us.  Less certain about our chances against Cal, URI, or K-State if they win out and we go o-fer--those will be close calls.

I do think it is plausible, based on your analysis, that we could lose both games and still make it, but that will depend a lot on those teams just mentioned also stumbling.

It goes back to what one of the bubbleologists said this week--we don't really need a good win, we just need wins.  But, the only thing remaining (with the one possible exception of a Depaul first-round in BET) are good teams.  So, let's just make it easy and win (one of them).

I think I agree with everything here! I think if we lose out other teams could absolutely pass us, providing they win their games. I think the only one on my list who I don't think could pass is Illinois. Fortunately, I don't think we're losing out and I don't think that 6 out of the 9 teams behind us are winning out!

The biggest threat to us comes from bid-stealers and if we face Depaul in the BET.