Marquette Prospectus

[Henry Sugar]

It's been nice to see that there are some other statistics fans out there amongst the MUScoop readers.  This year I've personally started to get into the Basketball Prospectus world, which has resulted in tracking our team statistics.

Anyways, I decided to start up a blog to cover the statistics of Marquette and just wanted to share.  The first few posts cover a review of the UWM game from a team as well as an individual view.  I plan on reviewing every game, possibly doing some previews, and then comparing this year's team with previous teams.  Hope that you enjoy.

http://marquetteprospectus.blogspot.com/

[NYWarrior]

this blog is fantastic, Henry.  Congrats and good luck with it!

[farmdaddy]

What a great idea!

[CWSKeith]

Fantastic, Henry -- your site will become a daily checkup for me and you've already been added to the 'Favorites'.  I definitely have a lot to learn but I look forward to reading your entries.

[ZiggysFryBoy]

have you contacted silverwarrior about adding his stuff to you site?  he's a top notch stat guy too.

[Pardner]

Outstanding...I definitely will check in. TC should put you on the payroll....like Moneyball or Freakonomics.  I loved the possession statistics (defense scoring %, TO's, rebound advantage, OR's give up, etc.)....just like with Moneyball where On Base % is important as it increases your odds of scoring and using up the pitcher's pitch count.  

I read in Rosiak's chat he thought the question on Ooze starting for the jump ball was a joke (maybe it was sarcasm).  That got me thinking about the outcome of the opening jump.  Best case if you win the tip:  you get one extra possession vs. the other team...worst case you get the same amount as the other team.  If you lose the tip, best case is you get the same amount as the team who won the tip via the alternating possessions...worst case is one less.  With a three being the maximum amount you could score on that possession (unless fouled, then four), that tip could be a four-six point swing advantage (your three puts the other team down three)...and could very well be the difference in the game like Duke.  Further, that deficit may mean you have to foul at the end of the game if behind vs. playing for the last possession.  Overkill for a simple stat (remembering Al used to check for dead spots on a floor before a game)?  Most teams shoot in the 40%-50% range, so this could happen often (i.e., Duke game)...coupled with all the other possession statistics that happen throughout a game.

Good luck!

[CrazyEcho]

Great work . . . this is now added to my favorites as well. 

[Wareagle]

With a three being the maximum amount you could score on that possession (unless fouled, then four), that tip could be a four-six point swing advantage (your three puts the other team down three)...and could very well be the difference in the game like Duke.  Further, that deficit may mean you have to foul at the end of the game if behind vs. playing for the last possession.  Overkill for a simple stat (remembering Al used to check for dead spots on a floor before a game)?  Most teams shoot in the 40%-50% range, so this could happen often (i.e., Duke game)...coupled with all the other possession statistics that happen throughout a game.
Good luck!

Ask and ye shall receive.  Here are some rough calculations to see how this bears itself out.  Marquette's average adjusted Points per possession is 1.26 (4th overall in the nation), our opponent's adjusted points per possession is .865.  So, those two numbers added together equals the swing we should expect for one more Marquette possession.  So, there is roughly speaking a 2.125 point swing if Marquette's opponent gets an extra possession.  The defensive stat is based on an average of all MU's opponent's so the swing you should expect to see would be increased a little for a team like Duke and decreased for a team like UWM.

[Pardner]

Thanks Wareagle...that's some good stuff!  Interesting to see MU 4th in pts. per possession.

[murambler]

Nice... Good luck, HS!  This should be a very useful tool; simply, numbers don't lie.

[Wareagle]

Here's the link to all the info I was using.

http://www.kenpom.com/sr.php?team=Marquette&y=2008

The stats for all teams are current through 12/1.

[The Man in Gold]

That got me thinking about the outcome of the opening jump.  Best case if you win the tip:  you get one extra possession vs. the other team...worst case you get the same amount as the other team.  If you lose the tip, best case is you get the same amount as the team who won the tip via the alternating possessions...worst case is one less. 

Pardner, great analysis of the potential impact of the jump ball; one clarifying point though.  Winning the jump does not guarantee 1 extra possession or even a draw.  If the team winning the jump has the same number of possessions in the first half as the team who lost the jump, then when the possession arrow switches at halftime the team losing the tip now has the same best case scenario of +1 possession for the game.  As a result, winning or losing the jump yields a -1 to +1 potential for both teams.  (This all assumes no jump balls).

[Henry Sugar]

Here's the link to all the info I was using.

http://www.kenpom.com/sr.php?team=Marquette&y=2008

The stats for all teams are current through 12/1.

FYI, my numbers will probably differ from Pomeroy's numbers because I have built in the Chaminade game in the analysis.