COVID Economy

[jesmu84]

Job market is great!!

https://twitter.com/JosephPolitano/status/1621510313085657093?t=AoCq9_sc0T9JNVESuhza1g&s=19

But wall street and the fed hate it

https://twitter.com/BrianMFloyd/status/1621512836865470469?t=9AAfHsj9QSL-N_Lp6gyVww&s=19

[JWags85]

Job market is great!!

https://twitter.com/JosephPolitano/status/1621510313085657093?t=AoCq9_sc0T9JNVESuhza1g&s=19

But wall street and the fed hate it

https://twitter.com/BrianMFloyd/status/1621512836865470469?t=9AAfHsj9QSL-N_Lp6gyVww&s=19

My god the replies to that second tweet are cancer.

But it all just goes further to highlight what a unique situation we are in during these semi near-term post-Covid times.  Some stuff is really going really well, and some stuff is still a mess.  Trying to blanket brush everything with a top line headline or assessment is inaccurate and unwise.

[tower912]

Supply chain issues still not worked out.  Demand is still outpacing supply in many sectors.   Building from the bottom up and the middle out is great for jobs.   Still having trouble getting computer chips.   Still have random foods disappearing from grocery shelves.

It is fun to talk smack and all, but I freely acknowledge that Goose and JWags have completely valid points.  There are still headwinds, landmines, and sinkholes aplenty out there.

[Skatastrophy]

Lowest unemployment rate in 54 years is wild.

[TSmith34, Inc.]

My god the replies to that second tweet are cancer.

But it all just goes further to highlight what a unique situation we are in during these semi near-term post-Covid times.  Some stuff is really going really well, and some stuff is still a mess.  Trying to blanket brush everything with a top line headline or assessment is inaccurate and unwise.

Agree. Said it before, the economy of the last 18-24 months is the most confusing and contradictory that I have ever seen.

[JWags85]

I'm REALLY curious to speak to some of my Chinese associates in the coming year, face to face where they are more open, and see how they really felt about everything COVID related.  Cause that's an interesting stress test for a populous gobbling up what is spoon fed by the CCP as it would pertain to something like sizable military action.

Be good to have you follow up on this after talking to your contacts

This was in the locked Balloon thread, but Ive had some convos recently that had me follow up.

So my China office head is actually a card carrying member of the CCP.  We've had some humorous conversations about it in the past.  But over the last 3-6 months, hes been pretty over a lot of it.  Anxious to get back to work fully.  To travel, to do business in HK, etc...  He was patient and trusting, especially given government allegiance, but since the beginning of 2022 or so, he was far more worried about lasting business damage and effects than COVID dangers.  And it colored his impressions of how things were done.

My longest tenured software engineer recently retired.  She'd been working remotely in Colorado, where she is retiring to, most of the past year, but she's been in the office the last month tying stuff up.  We sponsored her immigration to the US from China, by way of Canada, 20ish years ago.  Ive joked about her distaste towards and strong dislike towards Taiwan, and she still has plenty of affinity for her home country.  She and her husband still have plenty of family spread across 3 or 4 provinces in China. Said that, between her and her husband, close to 100 friends and family members got COVID, some twice.  Must have been weaker new strains cause none were hospitalized or had enduring issues.  They joked that it was a convenient sickness cause at the time, only 1 person could leave the house for groceries or errands, and usually 1 person in the house at a time was healthy/uninfected so they took care of stuff for others.  Many of them were professionals in business, academics, and science and long were annoyed with the constriction of normal life.  Her take was that compliance and contentment was quite high...for 1-2 years.  But as the Western world opened up, other SE Asian countries took steps toward bouncing back, people became anxious and unhappy.  While media or internet is censored or biased, almost all had friends and family abroad that kept them abreast of what was going on.

I mentioned in the other thread, I know a bunch of people at a trade show in HK this week.  Mainlanders are flooding the show to do business.  The majority have been really unhappy for quite awhile cause they've felt their businesses suffer.  Retailers or wholesalers that buy millions in goods annually, havent bought in years, and suddenly find themselves unable to snap demand the same pricing or benefits.  They have no sense of demand or upcoming government actions so they are trying to buy REALLY sharp, which is causing significant issues given what I just mentioned.  There is normally a flow of "traders came in offering X, mainland wanted to buy at Y, prices settled at Z" that shake out within the first day or 2 of the show.  Entering the 4th day tomorrow, its still not sorted out, needless to say they aren't too happy.  So a lot remains to be seen.

I'm sure there are large swaths of the Chinese public that are insulated and blindly obedient and loyal, but I get the impression that is far from true for those in international business situations, with family and close friends abroad, or those that regularly travel.  Their patience ran thin long ago.

[MU Fan in Connecticut]

Wags,
Interesting take.  Thanks.
China is on my 2023 visitation list.  Still working on the timeframe(s).

[JWags85]

Wags,
Interesting take.  Thanks.
China is on my 2023 visitation list.  Still working on the timeframe(s).

No problem, happy to share. 

I don't think I'll make it to China in 2023, still so much to shake out there.  Maybe Q4 if anything.  I'll be in HK in Sept and likely will make a Singapore/Malaysia/Indonesia trip late summer or fall.

Seeing pictures of people at the HKCC and out about in the city this week make me realize how much I missed it and mildly took it for granted being there 3 times a year for 4-5 years straight