Georgetown

[brewcity77]

I thought that was Markus. Katin had the Achilles, I maybe wrong.

That's correct, mixed up my injuries. Hopefully the last time that happens this season.

[MU82]

Winning at home is really important, as then you go on the road for 2 against 2 good teams, an then have to play Hall again. 

We'll just have to go 4-0 then.

At which point critics will complain that Wojo didn't win 5 of the first 4 games.

[Loose Cannon]

That's correct, mixed up my injuries. Hopefully the last time that happens this season.

You're are Almost spot on for all your posts.  You are a must read for me, Thanks.

[1SE]

Normally I would agree with your statement until I saw the schedule.  Starting out 1-6 or 1-7 is not going to give the team confidence.  Winning at home is really important, as then you go on the road for 2 against 2 good teams, an then have to play Hall again.  Hall is very athletic, something MU is not.

"Would really like to win" or "it would sure make ncaas easier or more likely if we win" is different than "must win". No game is "must win" until we have 7 (or 8) conference losses.

[Loose Cannon]

"Would really like to win" or "it would sure make ncaas easier or more likely if we win" is different than "must win". No game is "must win" until we have 7 (or 8) conference losses.

Plus tax

[Dr. Blackheart]

This is a huge game for either team as they are projected to be at the same range.  MU's early loss at home to Creighton last season haunted us all the way to the NIT snub.

#defendthehomecourt

[Nukem2]

This is a huge game for either team as they are projected to be at the same range.  MU's early loss at home to Creighton last season haunted us all the way to the NIT snub.

#defendthehomecourt

Ageed, though that game was 2/13.  So, not that early.

[brewcity77]

You're are Almost spot on for all your posts.  You are a must read for me, Thanks.

LOL. Thanks, though I was referring to hoping it's the last time we get injuries confused this season, because we can't afford many. I'm sure I'll be wrong plenty more times 

As far as Georgetown being must win, here's my elaborating on that. If we don't win, it puts us in the position of needing to go get a less likely game. We'll have to win at Seton Hall, or Xavier, or beat Nova. Small margins of error mean that losing these must win games makes the task ahead of us monumentally larger.

Last year, we needed 22-23 wins to be considered. Losing to Belmont and DePaul made that more difficult because it put us in the position of needing to win tougher games, and that was a task too tall. Entering February, we realistically needed to go at least 7-2 to earn a bid. That was with trips to Seton Hall, Xavier, and Butler on the schedule and home tilts with Nova and Providence. We had to go 3-2 in those games and sweep the rest, largely because of those two earlier must win losses. We went 1-4 and had no chance.

Get the two earlier and the season closer at Butler would've been a lot more meaningful. That's how I view Georgetown. Lose this and it makes the task a lot more difficult and likely means important games in two months will be rendered meaningless. It's must win because we don't have the margin to lose games like this at home.

[Loose Cannon]

LOL. Thanks, though I was referring to hoping it's the last time we get injuries confused this season, because we can't afford many. I'm sure I'll be wrong plenty more times 

As far as Georgetown being must win, here's my elaborating on that. If we don't win, it puts us in the position of needing to go get a less likely game. We'll have to win at Seton Hall, or Xavier, or beat Nova. Small margins of error mean that losing these must win games makes the task ahead of us monumentally larger.

Last year, we needed 22-23 wins to be considered. Losing to Belmont and DePaul made that more difficult because it put us in the position of needing to win tougher games, and that was a task too tall. Entering February, we realistically needed to go at least 7-2 to earn a bid. That was with trips to Seton Hall, Xavier, and Butler on the schedule and home tilts with Nova and Providence. We had to go 3-2 in those games and sweep the rest, largely because of those two earlier must win losses. We went 1-4 and had no chance.

Get the two earlier and the season closer at Butler would've been a lot more meaningful. That's how I view Georgetown. Lose this and it makes the task a lot more difficult and likely means important games in two months will be rendered meaningless. It's must win because we don't have the margin to lose games like this at home.

I agree, the earlier the better.  But as someone on this board who is fond of saying "The next game is the most important".  I tend to focus on the next game because I don't have any level of confidence in my overview of MU Conference team by team match ups.

That why I appreciate yours and other posters opinions of the overview. Thanks

[kchoya]

Oregon ain't that good this year without Dillon Brooks.

Oregon has Dillon Brooks, and he played against Georgetown. I'm missing your point.

[forgetful]

Oregon has Dillon Brooks, and he played against Georgetown. I'm missing your point.

Point was probably that Georgetown was the first game he played after not playing all season due to injury. 

Oregon may end up being good at the end of the year, but when Georgetown played them, they were playing with their key best player operating on one wheel. 

Not exactly something to hang your hat on as a big win.

[hoyasincebirth]

Point was probably that Georgetown was the first game he played after not playing all season due to injury. 

Oregon may end up being good at the end of the year, but when Georgetown played them, they were playing with their key best player operating on one wheel. 

Not exactly something to hang your hat on as a big win.

except no one will remember or care about his presence or absence at the end of the year, they'll just see the top 25 win on the resume.

Going back to some earlier points. The Hoyas have been terrible on the defensive glass this year, but luckily Marquette will be the  second worst offensive rebounding team we've faced this year, so I'm less worried about that being exploited. Hoyas have played 3rd, 11th, 23rd, 24th, 63rd, and 85th best offensive rebounding teams nationally.  Marquette has only faced the 11th, and 83rd best offensive rebounding teams to date.

[wadesworld]

except no one will remember or care about his presence or absence at the end of the year, they'll just see the top 25 win on the resume.

Going back to some earlier points. The Hoyas have been terrible on the defensive glass this year, but luckily Marquette will be the  second worst offensive rebounding team we've faced this year, so I'm less worried about that being exploited.

Unfortunately for them the only thing worthy of getting them into the NCAAs that they could possibly dream of putting on their resume by the end of the year is a BE Tourney title, and that isn't happening.

[hoyasincebirth]

Unfortunately for them the only thing worthy of getting them into the NCAAs that they could possibly dream of putting on their resume by the end of the year is a BE Tourney title, and that isn't happening.

? Georgetown is absolutely a bubble team right now.

Georgetown has good wins over Oregon (current RPI 25, Projected RPI 25 Kenpom 25) on a neutral court, @ Syracuse (Current RPI 199, Projected RPI 101, Kenpom 45), and La Salle (Current RPI 73, Projected RPI 96, Kenpom 102) on a neutral court.

We have no losses that look bad on paper. Worst loss is to Arkansas St (Current RPI 42, Projected RPI 66, Kenpom 129).

Again this is just the numbers Cuse and LaSalle don't look like impressive wins right now, but on paper they're quality wins. If Hoyas go 10-8 in BE play we're in easily 9-9 would get us in with a win or two in the BET.

[wadesworld]

? Georgetown is absolutely a bubble team right now.

Georgetown has good wins over Oregon (current RPI 25, Projected RPI 25 Kenpom 25) on a neutral court, @ Syracuse (Current RPI 199, Projected RPI 101, Kenpom 45), and La Salle (Current RPI 73, Projected RPI 96, Kenpom 102) on a neutral court.

We have no losses that look bad on paper. Worst loss is to Arkansas St (Current RPI 42, Projected RPI 66, Kenpom 129).

Again this is just the numbers Cuse and LaSalle don't look like impressive wins right now, but on paper they're quality wins. If Hoyas go 10-8 in BE play we're in easily 9-9 would get us in with a win or two in the BET.

The fact that you include LaSalle and Syracuse as good win says everything you need to know about the quality of your resume.

[GoldenDieners32]

The fact that you include LaSalle and Syracuse as good win says everything you need to know about the quality of your resume.

Also beat LaSalle on a neutral court

[hoyasincebirth]

The fact that you include LaSalle and Syracuse as good win says everything you need to know about the quality of your resume.

It's better than Marquette's best three wins: @ Georgia (current RPI 56 projected RPI 62 Kenpom 56), Neutral vs Vanderbilt (Current RPI 86 projected RPI 92 Kenpom 74), Home vs Fresno St (Current RPI 195, Projected RPI 150, kenpom 146).

[wadesworld]

It's better than Marquette's best three wins: @ Georgia (current RPI 56 projected RPI 62 Kenpom 56), Neutral vs Vanderbilt (Current RPI 86 projected RPI 92 Kenpom 74), Home vs Fresno St (Current RPI 195, Projected RPI 150, kenpom 146).

Which is why no Marquette fans are going over to Hoyascoop and talking about what the selection committee will see about their resume or predicting a 3 seed in the NCAA Tournament with an outside chance of a 1 seed.

Just because MU doesn't have an NCAA Tournament resume doesn't mean Georgetown does.

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

It's better than Marquette's best three wins: @ Georgia (current RPI 56 projected RPI 62 Kenpom 56), Neutral vs Vanderbilt (Current RPI 86 projected RPI 92 Kenpom 74), Home vs Fresno St (Current RPI 195, Projected RPI 150, kenpom 146).

Marquette also didn't lose to a buy game opponent.

I get Ark State is decent, but that's still an awful loss. Their computer numbers won't be pretty by the end of the year.

[bilsu]

It is a must win for both teams, because they are presumably fighting for the Big East's 6th bid. Realistically, they are not likely to finish higher than 6th. It is a bigger must win for MU, because it is a home game.

[Jay Bee]

except no one will remember or care about his presence or absence at the end of the year, they'll just see the top 25 win on the resume.

Going back to some earlier points. The Hoyas have been terrible on the defensive glass this year, but luckily Marquette will be the  second worst offensive rebounding team we've faced this year, so I'm less worried about that being exploited. Hoyas have played 3rd, 11th, 23rd, 24th, 63rd, and 85th best offensive rebounding teams nationally.  Marquette has only faced the 11th, and 83rd best offensive rebounding teams to date.

FWIW... there's a better version of this where I've weighted opponents based on offensive rebounding opportunities in each individual game, but that one is too valuable to share on here. Quick version is below...

Season to date thus far.. comparing a team's defensive OR% against the average of its opponents' OR%... gets you the following (lower difference = better):

Team   Diff
Xavier   -5.5
Villanova   -5.1
Seton Hall   -4.8
Marquette   -4.8
Providence -3.6
Butler   -2.3
Creighton   -0.7
DePaul   0.2
St. John's   1.4
Georgetown 2.2


Georgetown is still the worst using a basic average opponent OR% calc... their opponents' OR% - at an average of 33.0% - has been the most difficult for any BEast team to face... most close teams are Seton Hall and Providence at 31.4%. MU is at 30.3%, right in the middle of the pack. Nova - 28.7% - has had the easiest go thus far.

[naginiF]

Oregon has Dillon Brooks, and he played against Georgetown. I'm missing your point.

Where's the G'town watch party in KC?  I may crash it.

[MUBigDance]

Not sure what everyone else is saying....didn't read the whole thread.

But...GT is playing better lately...means more than the earlier fails that might make their rankings lesser.

Also, I don't like the long layoff for our guys...I just feel we take longer to warm up. GT has a layoff also but not sure how they will react to it.

Concerned about who will have foul trouble...Govan or Fischer or both or neither.  I'm hoping its Govan.

Despite my concerns...we are a 80+ point team. GT will have to keep up. 84-78 MU.

[Class71]

Sure rebounding will be a problem but let's not forget it will be a challenge to defend against fast guards
and protect the ball. Also against a strong big this season JJJ will run into a wall and not sure if he has learned to have an outlet and Luke will do the best he can defending. Just some reasons why this is a must win.

We are going to learn quickly this season if this team can progress and Wojo has MOJO. He will need something more than what he has shown so far which is we can shoot the three well.

[Dr. Blackheart]

These threads are fun to look back at.  Scoop pretty much got it right and Hoyas didn't.  This was a big win in defending the home court against a peer and by shoring up the interior defense.  If Pryor wasn't on fire from just inside half court, this was a blow out.