Beating Butler

[tower912]

Will Henry play or not?   If he does, how much of a positive impact will he have?      I think Wojo is going to have to game plan for Butler without HE or Heldt.    Which means Luke has to stay out of foul trouble.    Which means that Sandy, Wally, and Sacar are going to have to play some meaningful minutes.  Which means small ball.    Zone?    Can you play zone against Dunham?   Press?   Probably not with only 8 bodies available.    Going to need to emphasize team rebounding, as, IIRC, Butler is tough on the offensive glass.    As much as I want this team to get to 20 regular season wins, I think beating Butler in Hinkle on Senior day without Henry is going to be too big of an ask.    It will definitely be a challenge to Wojo's coaching chops. 

[GooooMarquette]

Have there been any updates on Matt's availability?

[🏀]

Butler better bring enough toilet paper to the Fieldhouse...for their chests.

[TSmith34, Inc.]

Looking at the remaining schedules, if we beat Butler there is a real chance there is a four-way tie at 9-9.

We'd obviously have the tie-breaker over both Providence and Butler by virtue of season sweeps, what would the tie-breaker with Creighton come down to?

I guess either way we'd still be considered tied for 4th in the conference, is it conceivable MU could hold the tie breaker and actually finish 4th overall?

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

Looking at the remaining schedules, if we beat Butler there is a real chance there is a four-way tie at 9-9.

We'd obviously have the tie-breaker over both Providence and Butler by virtue of season sweeps, what would the tie-breaker with Creighton come down to?

I guess either way we'd still be considered tied for 4th in the conference, is it conceivable MU could hold the tie breaker and actually finish 4th overall?

If we get into a four way tie with Creighton, Butler, and Providence we would be 4th by virtue of winning the "mini-conference." We'd have a combined 5-1 record against the other three. We would also win a three way tie with Providence and Creighton if Butler loses their last two.

To get to that four seed we'd need the following to happen:

Creighton loses at Providence
Marquette wins at Butler
Providence loses at St. John's
Creighton loses at Xavier

That's a lot of moving pieces. But certainly possible. I think Providence losing at SJU and us winning at Butler (especially if HE is hurt) are the two toughest sells.

[#UnleashSean]

If we get into a four way tie with Creighton, Butler, and Providence we would be 4th by virtue of winning the "mini-conference." We'd have a combined 5-1 record against the other three. We would also win a three way tie with Providence and Creighton if Butler loses their last two.

To get to that four seed we'd need the following to happen:

Creighton loses at Providence
Marquette wins at Butler
Providence loses at St. John's
Creighton loses at Xavier

That's a lot of moving pieces. But certainly possible. I think Providence losing at SJU and us winning at Butler (especially if HE is hurt) are the two toughest sells.

I'd say everything is very likely to happen like that, except providence losing to SJU. I just can't see that happening.

[Jables1604]

I apologize if this has been brought up on another thread but aren't we better off playing as a 7-10 seed in the Big East tourney?  Give us another winnable game.  Otherwise we could end up getting rolled in our first Big East tourney game and be stuck with either 19 wins (if we can't get past Butler) or in a best case scenario 20 wins?  Curious at to what everyone thinks.

[CTWarrior]

I apologize if this has been brought up on another thread but aren't we better off playing as a 7-10 seed in the Big East tourney?  Give us another winnable game.  Otherwise we could end up getting rolled in our first Big East tourney game and be stuck with either 19 wins (if we can't get past Butler) or in a best case scenario 20 wins?  Curious at to what everyone thinks.

Well, we have to beat Butler to get better than the 7 seed, so the question of 20 wins would be moot with regards to the 6 vs 7 seed.  If we don't get it against Butler, we'll be facing DePaul or St. John's in an attempt to get win number 20 anyway.  We are not really playing for an at large bid, so I'd just as soon be the 6 seed because 3 wins is easier than 4.

Also, if we do have to play the first night, I'd rather play DePaul in NY that St. John's.  While DePaul actually beat us once, I think SJU with the big guy back are a worse match-up for us, as Henry can be controlled somewhat by an athletic big guy.  We should win either way, but I'd feel more comfortable against DePaul.

[Benny B]

I apologize if this has been brought up on another thread but aren't we better off playing as a 7-10 seed in the Big East tourney?  Give us another winnable game.  Otherwise we could end up getting rolled in our first Big East tourney game and be stuck with either 19 wins (if we can't get past Butler) or in a best case scenario 20 wins?  Curious at to what everyone thinks.

It's a valid point... unless you win the BET, you're going to have a neutral court loss, and having another neutral court win would likely offset or at least mitigate; however, in this case, is a neutral court win against DePaul or St Johns really going to make much of a difference?  Even the RPI bump of another win isn't going to move the needle, and a win against either of these two would be like giving an aspirin to someone on life support.  What MU needs is a defibrillator, and there's no shock in beating someone lower in the standings.

That said, if MU were sitting in the 60s or 70s as far as RPI goes, there would be even more benefit to an "extra" game against St Johns (considering that MSG is the home court for St. Johns, so - and this goes back to my earlier post (different thread) regarding inconsistencies of RPI) if a win against counts as 1.4 towards RPI.

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

I apologize if this has been brought up on another thread but aren't we better off playing as a 7-10 seed in the Big East tourney?  Give us another winnable game.  Otherwise we could end up getting rolled in our first Big East tourney game and be stuck with either 19 wins (if we can't get past Butler) or in a best case scenario 20 wins?  Curious at to what everyone thinks.

At this point, I think its best to hope for best case matchups. In the unlikely event that MU runs the table to the BET final (play-in game or not), they're still going to most likely be on the wrong side of the bubble. I'd certainly be interested on Selection Sunday if that happens.  Likely Benny said, don't know that a win against SJU (most likely opponent as GT probably isn't going to win at Nova) probably does not move the needle much with respect to an at large bid.

That said.....getting a W Saturday and getting the 4 or 5 seed would be interesting.  First off, a game against Creighton or Providence is better than SHU.  Furthermore, have to assume GT beats Depaul in 8/9 game, who would then play Nova for the 2nd game in 5 days. GT is a dangerous team that could beat Nova on a neutral court playing in its 2nd game in 2 days. Unlikely, but possible.  Then MU's road to the final would be Creighton or Prov and GT (third game in 50 some hours)...which would be AWESOME.