[Cracked Sidewalks] Fischer 3rd in Big East "Net Points:" Ellenson near All-American last 6 games after TERRIBLE 1st 4 games

[CrackedSidewalks]

Fischer 3rd in Big East "Net Points:" Ellenson near All-American last 6 games after TERRIBLE 1st 4 games

NC State's Cat Barber is averaging 20.6 points per game - but so far Luke Fischer is better. Barber is the only player in a major conference missing more than 11 shots per game (free throws and field goals) while Fischer misses only 4.3 shots per game (a 66.3% field goal percentage for Fischer to below 40% for Barber).

The explanation of "Net Points" (Points minus mistakes) and top 1000 players can be found here, and the more advanced Value Add Ratings are here.

Fischer has 7.5 net points per game (14.3 - 4.3 - 2.5) and Cat has 7.3 (20.6 - 11.1 - 2.2). Once Value Add factors in level of opponents faced, rebounds, steals, assists, defense etc., Fischer's overall Value Add 5.29 and Barber's is 5.08.

As for Henry Ellenson, the last six games he has scored 17.8 points per game with just 7.3 misses per game and 1.3 turnovers which adjusts to 2.0. That would put him in the top 1% of all players with 8.5 net points per game. However, his first four games Ellenson played like a freshman. He scored 14.5 per game, but that was missing 9.5 shots per game and turning the ball over 3.8 times a game (adjusted for 5.7 in the formula) so he actually had a net negative. So it basically took him just until his 5th game to look like an All-American sophomore after four games of looking like a freshman. The future is bright.

	Points	Misses	Adj TO	Net
Ellenson 1st 4	14.5	9.5	5.7	(0.7)
Ellenson last 6	17.8	7.3	2.0	8.5

Yet for some reason some critics do not seem to grasp that players who make a lot of mistakes hurt their team - and I constantly get criticism for a player who turns the ball over a lot and hits less than 40% of his shots is not in my top 100 for putting up a lot of positive stats.

The best total in the country is Grayson Allen, Duke's point guard who is averaging 21.4 points per game, minus just 7.3 missed shots per game and 1.7 adjusted turnovers per game. He has totaled 124 "Points minus Mistakes: or 12.4 per game.

The following starts with the top 10 players nationally, then the top 20 Big East players, the top 10 players in the other seven best conferences and finally the 10 best of the rest from other conferences.

Rnk	Name	Pos	Team	Pts	Misses	Adj TO	PPG-Mist	Pts-Mist	VA
NA	Average Player	All	All	6.6	3.7	1.6	1.4	11.3	1.3
Rnk	Top 10 National Players	Pos	Team	Pts	Misses	Adj TO	PPG-Mist	Pts-Mist	VA
1	Allen, Grayson 3	PG	Duke	21.4	7.3	1.7	12.4	124	10.5
2	Walker, David 4	SG	Northeastern	23.1	7.1	3.3	12.7	114	9.6
3	Bradds, Evan 35	C	Belmont	19.4	4.5	3.7	11.2	112	7.7
4	Uthoff, Jarrod 20	PF	Iowa	19.6	7.4	1.5	10.7	107	9.2
5	Robinson, Justin 12	PG	Monmouth	20.4	7.9	1.9	10.6	106	9.2
6	Gibbs, Jack 12	PG	Davidson	27.8	8.7	2.0	17.2	103	8.1
7	Moody, Stefan 42	PG	Mississippi	24.1	10.9	3.0	10.2	102	6.0
8	Ware, Gavin 20	PF	Mississippi St.	19.0	4.4	2.0	12.7	101	8.8
9	Poeltl, Jakob 42	C	Utah	20.1	6.0	3.2	10.9	98	9.9
10	Emegano, Obi 15	SG	Oral Roberts	25.3	10.8	3.7	10.9	98	6.1
Rnk	Big East Top 20 Players	Pos	Team	Pts	Misses	Adj TO	PPG-Mist	Pts-Mist	VA
1	Dunham, Kellen 24	SF	Butler	19.1	6.7	2.5	9.9	89	4.6
2	Bentil, Ben 0	C	Providence	17.7	8.0	2.5	7.2	80	5.4
3	Fischer, Luke 40	C	Marquette	14.3	4.3	2.5	7.5	75	5.3
4	Smith-Rivera, D'Vauntes 4	PG	Georgetown	16.2	7.9	1.7	6.6	66	5.7
5	Groselle, Geoffrey 41	C	Creighton	10.7	3.2	1.2	6.3	63	5.1
6	Chrabascz, Andrew 45	PF	Butler	12.3	4.6	0.8	6.9	62	5.8
7	Davis, Myles 15	PG	Xavier	11.7	4.6	1.0	6.1	61	4.7
8	Zierden, Isaiah 21	SG	Creighton	12.0	5.0	0.9	6.1	61	5.8
9	Arcidiacono, Ryan 15	PG	Villanova	12.3	4.6	1.0	6.7	61	7.5
10	Hart, Josh 3	C	Villanova	15.0	6.7	1.8	6.5	59	7.8
11	Martin, Kelan 30	C	Butler	14.8	5.2	3.2	6.4	57	4.3
12	Henry, Myke 4	C	DePaul	13.2	3.7	3.8	5.7	57	4.1
13	Garrett, Billy 5	PG	DePaul	14.2	6.5	2.1	5.6	56	2.8
14	Dunn, Kris 3	PG	Providence	16.8	8.9	2.7	5.2	52	7.8
15	Thomas, Khyri 2	SG	Creighton	10.8	3.5	2.2	5.1	51	3.3
16	Farr, James 2	C	Xavier	10.0	4.0	1.1	4.9	49	5.9
17	Ellenson, Henry 13	C	Marquette	16.5	8.2	3.4	4.9	49	3.4
18	Bullock, Rodney 5	C	Providence	13.7	6.4	2.9	4.4	49	4.4
19	Bluiett, Trevon 5	PF	Xavier	14.6	7.2	2.6	4.8	48	4.9
20	Wideman, Tyler 4	PF	Butler	10.0	3.2	1.5	5.3	47	5.7
Rnk	A10 Top 10 Players	Pos	Team	Pts	Misses	Adj TO	PPG-Mist	Pts-Mist	VA
1	Allen, Terry 15	C	Richmond	20.6	8.2	3.1	9.3	83	8.7
2	Colter, Derrick 1	PG	Duquesne	19.0	8.2	2.0	8.8	79	3.4
3	Johnson, Melvin 32	SG	VCU	19.6	9.4	1.4	8.7	79	6.5
4	Thomas, Mandell 23	SG	Fordham	19.5	8.3	1.5	9.8	78	6.2
5	Price, Jordan 21	SF	La Salle	25.4	10.1	4.9	10.4	73	5.6
6	Mason, Micah 22	PG	Duquesne	16.3	6.7	1.7	8.0	72	4.6
7	Cavanaugh, Tyler 34	C	George Washington	16.1	5.8	3.5	6.8	68	5.5
8	Hinds, Jabarie 5	PG	Massachusetts	16.4	7.1	1.9	7.4	67	6.7
9	Cline, TJ 10	PG	Richmond	15.0	6.2	1.5	7.2	65	4.6
10	Rhoomes, Ryan 30	PF	Fordham	14.1	3.8	2.4	7.9	63	4.4
Rnk	ACC Top 10 Players	Pos	Team	Pts	Misses	Adj TO	PPG-Mist	Pts-Mist	VA
1	McClellan, Sheldon 10	SF	Miami FL	16.8	4.3	1.8	10.7	96	7.6
2	Gbinije, Michael 0	PG	Syracuse	19.8	7.6	2.6	9.6	96	10.2
3	Blossomgame, Jaron 5	C	Clemson	16.3	5.9	1.7	8.7	87	6.4
4	Jackson, Demetrius 11	PG	Notre Dame	17.8	6.3	1.9	9.5	86	7.6
5	Lee, Damion 0	SF	Louisville	18.8	6.0	2.2	10.5	84	8.9
6	Beasley, Malik 5	SG	Florida St.	18.3	6.1	2.2	9.9	80	6.2
7	Artis, Jamel 1	PG	Pittsburgh	16.3	4.6	1.8	9.8	79	4.8
8	Young, Michael 2	SG	Pittsburgh	17.6	4.6	3.4	9.6	77	7.0
9	Brogdon, Malcolm 15	PG	Virginia	16.9	7.6	1.4	8.0	72	6.9
10	Johnson, Brice 11	C	North Carolina	13.4	4.0	1.5	7.9	71	7.2
Rnk	American Top 10 Players	Pos	Team	Pts	Misses	Adj TO	PPG-Mist	Pts-Mist	VA
1	Miller, Shonn 32	PF	Connecticut	12.0	3.8	0.9	7.3	66	6.3
2	Woodard, James 10	SG	Tulsa	16.9	7.3	3.2	6.4	64	4.7
3	Gray, Rob 2	SG	Houston	19.6	8.1	2.6	8.8	62	4.5
4	Clark, Gary 11	C	Cincinnati	9.7	2.7	2.0	5.0	55	6.7
5	Cobb, Farad 21	SG	Cincinnati	11.7	5.5	1.6	4.6	50	3.3
6	Harrison, Shaquille 3	SF	Tulsa	18.8	10.6	3.2	5.0	50	4.8
7	Pollard, Devonta 24	C	Houston	14.9	5.7	2.2	7.0	49	4.5
8	Johnson, Ronnie 3	PG	Houston	12.7	4.4	1.4	6.9	48	4.4
9	Tyson, BJ 21	C	East Carolina	14.2	6.6	3.0	4.6	46	3.0
10	Enechionyia, Obi 0	PF	Temple	11.6	4.8	1.4	5.4	43	3.1
Rnk	Big Ten Top 10 Players	Pos	Team	Pts	Misses	Adj TO	PPG-Mist	Pts-Mist	VA
1	Robinson, Duncan 22	PF	Michigan	13.6	3.1	1.0	9.5	95	7.0
2	Ferrell, Yogi 11	PG	Indiana	16.8	6.5	2.0	8.3	92	8.5
3	King, Joey 24	PF	Minnesota	14.8	4.6	1.5	8.7	87	5.4
4	Haas, Isaac 44	C	Purdue	13.5	4.2	1.6	7.8	86	5.9
5	Trimble, Melo 2	PG	Maryland	15.8	5.0	2.6	8.2	82	7.9
6	LeVert, Caris 23	PG	Michigan	16.9	7.2	1.7	8.0	80	8.1
7	White, Andrew 3	PF	Nebraska	16.7	6.4	3.4	7.0	76	5.0
8	Valentine, Denzel 45	SG	Michigan St.	18.6	8.1	3.7	6.8	75	9.8
9	Blackmon, James 1	SF	Indiana	16.0	6.2	3.2	6.6	73	5.4
10	Forbes, Bryn 5	SG	Michigan St.	12.7	4.6	1.8	6.3	70	3.0
Rnk	Big 12 Top 10 Players	Pos	Team	Pts	Misses	Adj TO	PPG-Mist	Pts-Mist	VA
1	Hield, Buddy 24	SG	Oklahoma	22.1	8.4	2.3	11.4	80	9.6
2	Niang, Georges 31	PF	Iowa St.	17.4	6.3	2.7	8.4	75	6.0
3	Brodziansky, Vladimir 10	C	TCU	14.4	4.0	2.5	7.9	71	5.3
4	Selden, Wayne 1	SG	Kansas	16.4	5.4	2.4	8.6	69	5.9
5	Morris, Monte 11	PG	Iowa St.	15.1	6.1	1.4	7.6	68	7.5
6	Felix, Javan 3	PG	Texas	11.0	3.6	0.9	6.5	65	5.5
7	Gathers, Rico 2	C	Baylor	15.1	5.4	1.8	7.9	64	7.8
8	Williams, Devin 41	C	West Virginia	17.0	6.0	4.0	7.0	63	5.7
9	McKay, Jameel 1	C	Iowa St.	15.0	5.9	2.6	6.5	59	5.6
10	Ellis, Perry 34	PF	Kansas	14.8	6.1	1.5	7.1	57	4.7
Rnk	Pac 12 Top 10 Players	Pos	Team	Pts	Misses	Adj TO	PPG-Mist	Pts-Mist	VA
1	Scott, Josh 40	C	Colorado	18.0	5.1	2.0	10.9	87	8.5
2	Andrews, Andrew 12	PG	Washington	21.0	9.6	2.1	9.4	84	8.0
3	Welsh, Thomas 40	PF	UCLA	12.8	4.1	1.2	7.5	75	5.0
4	Alford, Bryce 20	PG	UCLA	16.9	8.1	2.5	6.4	70	4.3
5	Rabb, Ivan 1	PF	California	12.7	3.5	2.6	6.6	66	6.2
6	Loveridge, Jordan 21	SF	Utah	15.0	5.9	1.9	7.2	65	5.0
7	Trier, Allonzo 11	SG	Arizona	13.2	4.4	2.6	6.2	62	2.8
8	King, George 24	SF	Colorado	17.3	6.6	3.0	7.7	61	3.1
9	Hawkinson, Josh 24	C	Washington St.	16.4	4.9	2.8	8.7	61	6.6
10	Anderson, Ryan 12	C	Arizona	15.6	6.4	2.5	6.6	60	5.6
Rnk	Pac 12 Top 10 Players	Pos	Team	Pts	Misses	Adj TO	PPG-Mist	Pts-Mist	VA
1	Punter, Kevin 0	PG	Tennessee	22.9	8.8	2.5	11.6	93	8.3
2	Hannahs, Dusty 3	SG	Arkansas	18.6	6.3	2.0	10.3	92	3.9
3	Bell, Anthlon 5	SG	Arkansas	16.9	7.6	1.2	8.2	74	2.7
4	Baldwin, Wade 4	PG	Vanderbilt	15.3	5.1	2.5	7.7	69	6.2
5	Kacinas, Mindaugas 25	PF	South Carolina	13.3	4.2	1.6	7.5	67	4.4
6	Canty, Kareem 1	PG	Auburn	19.3	8.3	1.6	9.4	66	5.1
7	Simmons, Ben 25	SF	LSU	19.0	7.5	3.3	8.2	65	11.3
8	Chatkevicius, Laimonas 14	C	South Carolina	13.0	4.9	1.5	6.6	60	4.1
9	Davis, Tyler 34	C	Texas A&M	11.4	2.8	2.7	5.9	59	6.1
10	Kingsley, Moses 33	C	Arkansas	15.2	6.3	2.5	6.4	58	6.9
Rnk	Top 10 Players All Other Conferences	Pos	Team	Pts	Misses	Adj TO	PPG-Mist	Pts-Mist	VA
1	Felder, Kahlil 20	PG	Oakland	24.6	10.4	3.4	10.7	96	7.7
2	Daniel, James 11	PG	Howard	29.4	13.8	3.7	11.9	95	6.2
3	Beane, Anthony 25	SG	Southern Illinois	20.5	8.3	3.4	8.9	98	3.4
4	Timmer, Reed 12	PG	Drake	19.0	6.8	2.6	9.6	86	3.3
5	Balentine, DJ 31	PG	Evansville	21.9	9.8	2.7	9.4	85	2.2
6	Adams, Josh 14	PG	Wyoming	24.4	9.4	3.1	11.9	95	8.3
7	Reischel, Jarelle 30	C	Eastern Kentucky	19.3	6.3	5.1	7.9	87	7.2
8	Engesser, Nate 33	SG	Denver	15.9	4.1	2.1	9.7	97	4.8
9	Evans, Mo 0	PG	IPFW	17.2	6.7	2.2	8.3	91	5.2
10	White, Jake 43	PF	Nebraska Omaha	16.2	4.7	1.9	9.6	87	4.1

Source: Fischer 3rd in Big East "Net Points:" Ellenson near All-American last 6 games after TERRIBLE 1st 4 games

[real chili 83]

Interesting that two of our losses come against team with a player in the top 5 nationally. 

Are they that good or did we "help" them with our poor play?   

[bamamarquettefan]

Good point - but with 10 games in even one poor early defensive on our part they would probably be up there anyway - but I will go ba  ck and do the math

[brandx]

This is interesting stuff. I don't know how much value it has now with all the cupcakes that we played (and that other top teams played).

But once we are well into conference season where teams know each other and are well scouted, this should give some real insight.

Hopefully, you will give us more info once we are into the BE portion of the schedule.

[bamamarquettefan]

You make a very good point - the Value Add equations calculate the opposing defense and offense faced in every game (thus MU players are held down just like the team RPI is held down). This is a simple equation that at least identifies ball hogs with high points per game and players like Ellenson who have made huge improvements even though the ppg is not that much higher.