[Cracked Sidewalks] Proposed new Big East equal to ACC in football; better than SEC & Pac10 in hoops

[CrackedSidewalksSays]

Proposed new Big East equal to ACC in football; better than SEC & Pac10 in hoops

Written by: noreply@blogger.com (bamamarquettefan1)

We will get back to previewing BASKETBALL momentarily, but ...

CBS Sports is reporting that Houston, SMU, Central Florida, Boise State, Navy and Air Force are all expected to join the Big East this week, with the latter three playing football only.  The only last minute scrambling is apparently for Boise State to get their other sports into another conference this week.

If we take the current Massey Ratings for football and last year's final Pomeroy Ratings for basketball, the average football team in the new Big East would be the 56th best team in the country compared to the average ACC ranking of 55th.


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New ConferenceFootballBasketball[/tr]

SEC	29	84
B12	33	72
P10	44	80
B10	47	38
ACC	55	57
Big East	56	77
WAC	79	151
CUSA	83	105

Big East football would have a huge edge over the next best conferences, and be within an average of 10 spots of the Big Ten, which once again ranks behind the Big 12, Pac 10 and of course SEC.  

It would seem hard to justify dropping the Big East BCS status with the addition of Boise State and Houston, and as much as I would hate to lose Louisville or UConn for basketball, dropping either one would actually move Big East football AHEAD of the ACC by this measure.

So if the BCS status holds, then all of the attention can then turn to how good a basketball conference we have.  Here the new conference falls behind the Big Ten and ACC, but would come in as the third best conference except that DePaul's ranking of 202nd drops it just behind the Big 12 to make it the 4th best conference.  Clearly the Big East is not going to dominate and get 11 bids after the departure of Pitt, Syracuse and West Virginia, but with the potential of Central Florida and Houston, there is no reason it can't solidify itself as one of the top three basketball conferences in the country.

Below is the team-by-team for what would be the new Big East (I listed Notre Dame's football rankings and the football-only basketball rankings, but they were not tallied in the average.)  Overall, it could be a good week for the Big East after a terrible month.


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FootballBasketball[/tr]

Air Force	65	133
Boise St.	5	85
Central Florida	93	102
Cincinnati	35	23
Connecticut	81	10
DePaul		202
Georgetown		40
Houston	28	209
Louisville	70	14
Marquette		32
Navy	79	274
Notre Dame	25	15
Providence		96
Rutgers	54	78
Seton Hall		59
South Florida	55	127
Southern Methodist	48	154
St. John's		42
Villanova		33
New BE Average	56	77

http://www.crackedsidewalks.com/2011/11/proposed-new-big-east-equal-to-acc-in.html

[tower912]

Thank you for the perspective.  Good news. Care to speculate how many people do that kind of research vs just assuming that the conference is going down the crapper?

[mugrad2006]

Is that light I see at the end of this tunnel?  Sweet, glorious light.

Thanks for the analysis, kinda puts things in perspective, if only for a few years.

[HoopsMalone]

Obviously the current Big East is better, but not a bad solution.  Probably gives us more football interest overall with Boise State and eyes on the conference in TX and FL.

If everything holds, I will be happy. 
-We keep our traditional rivals with Louisville, Cincy, ND, and DePaul. 
-We also keep UConn as a headliner which is crucial. 
-We keep MSG in March. 
-Buzz also gets to head south to recruit and use "you get to play close to home" line, though he loses the best conference talking point. 

Could be worse.

[Dr. Blackheart]

Houston has some young hoops studs in the pipeline. SMU is embarking on a $40mm arena expansion, has Doherty.  Would like to see Memphis and Temple added to strengthen hoops. Is Nova still talking football?  Is that why the hold on Temple? How is Comcast's cable coverage in these geographies/

So, what happens to CUSA?

[MerrittsMustache]

Obviously the current Big East is better, but not a bad solution.  Probably gives us more football interest overall with Boise State and eyes on the conference in TX and FL.

If everything holds, I will be happy. 
-We keep our traditional rivals with Louisville, Cincy, ND, and DePaul. 
-We also keep UConn as a headliner which is crucial. 
-We keep MSG in March. 
-Buzz also gets to head south to recruit and use "you get to play close to home" line, though he loses the best conference talking point. 

Could be worse.

But for how long?

[brewcity77]

Glad I'm not the only one that sees this is a solid move. We still need a forfeiture clause  to keep UConn from bailing.

[GGGG]

People who are acting like chicken littles about BE expansion are the same ones who were acting like chicken littles when we lost to Cincinnati at home last year.  Everything has to be so negative with some people.  People need to calm down and get some perspective.

Is this as good a conference as what we had before?  No.  Is it still a good conference?  Definately.

And as for UConn, UL and UC, I have no idea where they would go.  I don't see the B12 going to 12 or the ACC going to 16 anytime soon.  I think this brings in a few years of stability.

[dgies9156]

It would be nice to get Butler, Temple, Dayton and George Mason in the conference for basketball.

Think of the rivalries between GMU and Georgetown. Or between Marquette, Depaul, Notre Dame and Dayton.

Or between Butler and any of us. It would be good if it could happen.

[Abode4life]

It would be nice to get Butler, Temple, Dayton and George Mason in the conference for basketball.

Think of the rivalries between GMU and Georgetown. Or between Marquette, Depaul, Notre Dame and Dayton.

Or between Butler and any of us. It would be good if it could happen.

If you add all those teams, that is an even bigger conference than we had.  I am still not sold that this is in the best interests of us in the long term because I have serious doubts that UConn and Louisville will stay more than a year or two, which would cause more pandemonium and possible teams jumping.  Although I would love to be wrong. 

If we add any more teams I would like to see if we could add Temple to round out the football teams to 12 to have a conference championship.  Then add 1 bball only school like Xavier or Butler.  That way we keep the numbers and schedule the same for bball and still add two quality basketball teams.  I am also in favor of staying within our current foot print we have now of the Midwest/East Coast. 

[KipsBayEagle]

i don't care what the statistics say, this is just wrong.

[Buzz Williams' Spillproof Chiclets Cup]

There's only so much you can polish a turd.

If UConn or Louisville jump, then the basketball schools need to break away. ASAP. I don't care if it's called the Little East, or the Toxic Sludge Dump 12 Conference. Because after Louisville and UConn leave, there is a dwindling number of programs that are worth bringing in for football AND basketball.

This round of expansion is far from a great move. I'm sure the Presidents and conference will say otherwise, but I don't see how it buys security to keep UConn or Louisville in the fold.

Positives: Move buys what? One? Maybe two extra games with UConn and Louisville before we play musical chairs again?
Negatives: Once the music starts, we're stuck in a conference with SMU, UCF, and Houston for basketball, all schools that also have football programs and pointyball rules the day yet again. Hello ECU and UAB.


This move is a spitshined turd and there's no way around it.

[MarquetteDano]

People who are acting like chicken littles about BE expansion are the same ones who were acting like chicken littles when we lost to Cincinnati at home last year.  Everything has to be so negative with some people.  People need to calm down and get some perspective.

Is this as good a conference as what we had before?  No.  Is it still a good conference?  Definately.

And as for UConn, UL and UC, I have no idea where they would go.  I don't see the B12 going to 12 or the ACC going to 16 anytime soon.  I think this brings in a few years of stability.

This is bolded part is the key.  If this only brings a few years of stability, and some combination of Cincy, Looeyville, UConn, and Rutgers are gone in 1-2 years, this move would not have been worth it, as we have added teams to the Big East just to make those football schools happy that are gone anyways.  If this brings 5+ years of stability, then I guess it is worth it.  Time will tell.

[bamamarquettefan]

And i guess my point is it is always worth a few years.  I'm sure when va tech, Miami and bc left, it looked like the end, and we ended up with the greatest basketball conference around. The big 12 looked dead, and has climbed out of the hole.  There are billions of dollars flying around in the coming decade, and I believe this move gives USB chance to secure a deal that solidifies the conference at some point.

[GGGG]

This is bolded part is the key.  If this only brings a few years of stability, and some combination of Cincy, Looeyville, UConn, and Rutgers are gone in 1-2 years, this move would not have been worth it, as we have added teams to the Big East just to make those football schools happy that are gone anyways.  If this brings 5+ years of stability, then I guess it is worth it.  Time will tell.

Yeah, if we get five years out of this it may be our best option.  Who knows after that.  But I don't think UL, UC or UConn are going anywhere between now and then.  And if it blows up in 2016, we adjust and move forward.

It's not as though we are making a 20 year commitment here.

[Norm]

Proposed new Big East equal to ACC in football; better than SEC & Pac10 in hoops

Written by: noreply@blogger.com (bamamarquettefan1)
Below is the team-by-team for what would be the new Big East (I listed Notre Dame's football rankings and the football-only basketball rankings, but they were not tallied in the average.)  Overall, it could be a good week for the Big East after a terrible month.


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Football Basketball
Air Force	65	133
Boise St.	5	85
Central Florida	93	102
Cincinnati	35	23
Connecticut	81	10
DePaul		202
Georgetown		40
Houston	28	209
Louisville	70	14
Marquette		32
Navy	79	274
Notre Dame	25	15
Providence		96
Rutgers	54	78
Seton Hall		59
South Florida	55	127
Southern Methodist	48	154
St. John's		42
Villanova		33
New BE Average	56	77

http://www.crackedsidewalks.com/2011/11/proposed-new-big-east-equal-to-acc-in.html

That adds 5 teams at 100 or greater that we have to play every year. How would that affect our non-conference schedule? I would think we would have to play a much tougher non-conference schedule, with fewer home games, to make up for the SOS hit we would take by adding 5 not very good basketball programs to the league.

[GGGG]

Slight correction...you are only adding 3.  AFA and Navy would be football-only.

[Mr. Nielsen]

I see lots of talk of Butler coming to the BE. It's almost not going to happen. Would people have wanted this three years ago? It's more than basketball for Butler to make the move. It's it other sports as well.

[bilsu]

I see lots of talk of Butler coming to the BE. It's almost not going to happen. Would people have wanted this three years ago? It's more than basketball for Butler to make the move. It's it other sports as well.

Butler record has been very strong for about 10 years. They probably have won close to 80% of their games in that time period.

[bamamarquettefan]

i don't care what the statistics say, this is just wrong.

The good news is inclusion in the BCS is based on statistics, so even though we might have subjective opinions on whether the ACC or Big East is better in football, the BCS criteria relies on stats which would actually favor the Big East slightly at this point. (and as an Auburn season ticket holder, i really would care less about Big East football except that i believe BCS status is huge for Marquette).

The overall BCS rankings, which are usually pretty close to Massey, are a big criteria, and remember that the ACC grabbed two teams in Syracuse and Pitt that are not even in the TOP 60 right now, and Syracuse is going to really hurt their standings during the 2013 re-evuation, which Pitt's BCS bowl permances will offset a couple of ok years.  So when I add up these overall numbers, remember that the BCS committee will be using a very similar tool as a part of the criteria.

Now the better news.  Another criteria is how your TOP team is doing - and they go by what conference the team will be in in 2014 - not where they were during the period being evaluated.  Obviously this is where losing West Virginia hurts, as they have averaged being ranked 23rd last year and this.  However, Boise State has averaged being 8th, so if Boise confirms they are in then we have jumped 15 spots in a whole separate criteria, and we have leapfrogged the ACC because Boise's 8th is also better than Virginia Tech's 12.5th place average - not to mention Boise going out and beating them in Washington last year.

Then the other criteria is how the current conference teams have done in the various BCS bowl games.  Honestly, both conferences have been terrible in the BCS games, so adding Boise's wins in BCS games probably gives us the edge over the ACC in that category too.

So in addition to the overall average being the same, when you start looking at the top teams that weigh heavier into the equation, the new BE is much better than the old BE in football, and vs. the ACC matches up:

Boise St (11th, 5th) vs. Va Tech (13th, 12th)
Clemson (NR, 11th) vs. Houston (NR, 13th)
Florida State (23rd, NR) vs. Central Florida (25th, NR)
Georgia Tech (NR, 23rd) vs. Cincinnati (close)

So with SMU beating TCU this year and on the verge of the BCS rankings before dropping their last two, you can see that Big East football now has a much stronger case for BCS inclusion than it did with the current teams on the field.  Now the pure football option is to follow-up on the latest move by adding Southern Mississippi (currently 25th in the BCS), Nevada (15th last year) or BYU (one of only a few teams to be in the BCS Top 20 four years straight from 2006-2009) to actually move AHEAD of the ACC in criteria, or

You can improve basketball by adding Memphis but fall behind the ACC again in football by adding perhaps the worst FBS conference team out of 120.

It still seems to me the logical add, to watch out for basketball and football, is Temple, which has improved football enough to keep the Big East even with the ACC in football but also provide a strong basketball program that would help ensure the Big East is one of the top 3 basketball conferences as well.