Quote from: MuggsyB on Today at 10:11:38 AMI still think we get a 7. 

Neither a 7 or 8 would surprise me.  I lean to an 8.  And hard to argue that isn't deserved.

Quote from: HutchwasClutch on Today at 10:14:36 AMNeither a 7 or 8 would surprise me.  I lean to an 8.  And hard to argue that isn't deserved.

That's not good Hutch.  Very bad match-ups if we're lucky enough to win the 1st game.

Quote from: MuggsyB on Today at 10:18:06 AMThat's not good Hutch.  Very bad match-ups if we're lucky enough to win the 1st game.

I don't like 7/10 game much better.  This is what they've played themselves into- unappealing matchups.  And a 1 or 2 seed waiting if they win.

Quote from: MuggsyB on Today at 10:01:17 AMBrew,

What's this love for Illinois that I'm missing?  And doesn't the fact that we beat Maryland, UW, and Purdue head to head have some positive impact?

Illinois is better in 5/7 team sheet metrics and has a better resume & predictive average. Going to results, they are 8-10 in Q1, we're 6-8. Similar, but advantages them.

It's really the content of those wins that differentiates them. Illinois has the same UW & Purdue home wins we do, but our only other Q1A win is road Maryland. They have neutral Missouri, road Oregon, and road Michigan. Just more depth of quality at the top of their resume with the metrics to back it up.

Quote from: HutchwasClutch on Today at 10:08:16 AMThis is clearly not the same team anymore that won those games in November and early December.  That has to be accounted for.  The committee cannot pretend it doesn't matter we've lost 7/12 since Feb 1, while not beating one other tournament team.  Only respectable win was Thursday but X is still not getting in the field.

No. That's not how it works. The season is evaluated as a whole. The first game is as important as the last.

Quote from: brewcity77 on Today at 10:34:59 AMIllinois is better in 5/7 team sheet metrics and has a better resume & predictive average. Going to results, they are 8-10 in Q1, we're 6-8. Similar, but advantages them.

It's really the content of those wins that differentiates them. Illinois has the same UW & Purdue home wins we do, but our only other Q1A win is road Maryland. They have neutral Missouri, road Oregon, and road Michigan. Just more depth of quality at the top of their resume with the metrics to back it up.

Even if they were down by 100 at the half yesterday to a team we beat on their floor?  Fine. 

Quote from: MuggsyB on Today at 10:40:29 AMEven if they were down by 100 at the half yesterday to a team we beat on their floor?  Fine. 

Cherry picking one game for each team is usually going to lead you to the wrong conclusion.

Quote from: wisblue on Today at 10:47:20 AMCherry picking one game for each team is usually going to lead you to the wrong conclusion.

They've been up and down all year. 

Quote from: MuggsyB on Today at 10:51:11 AMThey've been up and down all year. 

You have fantasized "if I was in charge" on many other subjects, so I am not surprised that you are effectively doing it here. The Selection Committee's decisions are not subject to your approval.

Quote from: MuggsyB on Today at 10:40:29 AMEven if they were down by 100 at the half yesterday to a team we beat on their floor?  Fine. 

Yes, it's one data point in season where most data points favor them, even after that loss.

Quote from: Scoop Snoop on Today at 10:55:38 AMYou have fantasized "if I was in charge" on many other subjects, so I am not surprised that you are effectively doing it here. The Selection Committee's decisions are not subject to your approval.

Calm down.  I was just having a discussion. 

Quote from: MuggsyB on Today at 10:59:05 AMCalm down.  I was just having a discussion. 

    

Brew, could the committee throw a curveball regarding the SEC?  I don't think most people want to see 14 teams. 

Quote from: The Sultan on Today at 10:37:39 AMNo. That's not how it works. The season is evaluated as a whole. The first game is as important as the last.

does the committee account for an injured star being out a stretch of games? i.e. bubble team Xavier didn't have Freemantle.

Quote from: MuggsyB on Today at 11:02:08 AMBrew, could the committee throw a curveball regarding the SEC?  I don't think most people want to see 14 teams. 

Only one is on the bubble, so the worst they will do is 13. And the committee should not care what "most people want."

Quote from: Viper on Today at 11:22:27 AMdoes the committee account for an injured star being out a stretch of games? i.e. bubble team Xavier didn't have Freemantle.

For three games.

Quote from: MuggsyB on Today at 11:02:08 AMBrew, could the committee throw a curveball regarding the SEC?  I don't think most people want to see 14 teams. 

I expect 13. You can't say the whole season matters and not put Oklahoma in. Their top-end wins are too good, particularly on neutral courts. I also feel confident in Arkansas. They could be left out, but feels unlikely.

If there's a curve ball with the SEC, it's Vandy. They have the win quality, but sub-300 NCSOS rarely goes to Dayton. Maybe them and Texas being out (and Texas should be out) gets them down to 12.

The possible wrinkle is having 7 mid-major & 5 high-major committee members (because the P12 didn't get a replacement). Maybe they go for a UC Irvine, Boise/CSU loser, or VCU (if they lose) but it doesn't guarantee Vandy or a SEC team is left out. Indiana, Xavier, or Baylor could also be left out.

Quote from: Viper on Today at 11:22:27 AMdoes the committee account for an injured star being out a stretch of games? i.e. bubble team Xavier didn't have Freemantle.

They can. The selection procedures allow for considering the availability of players or coaches (what I call the "Boeheim Rule")

I don't know if Fremantle would be considered impactful enough, or if Xavier's performance was different enough while he was out and phasing back in, to be given much weight.

I'm just grateful that Freemantle was a major net positive for Marquette in the second half Thursday.