There are games left to be played before Saturday's Top-16 reveal, but there's also an entire night of results in the books that we didn't factor into this bracket. Why? Because that's how the Selection Committee, who began meeting yesterday, has handled it in the past. Today we break down all of the teams we expect to see in the Top-16 on Saturday, and what teams might crash that dance.

Cracketology: Predicting the Top-16 Reveal

Any projections/numbers on how close the Big East is to potentially getting 5 bids?

I don't know their WAB scores currently but I imagine Villanova and Xavier will be right on the bubble, with my gut telling me Nova is closer than X to getting in. Though that's probably contingent on no more bad losses, beating us, and getting at least one good win in the BE tournament.

By one good win in Big East tournament, I agree if you mean a second round win.
Winning in the first round will not hurt, but it will not help.

So MU has 3 Q2 losses? I don't doubt it but not sure who they be. I don't follow the team sheets but someone could clue me in?
I figure Dayton away and X at home for sure. Would UC at home be the other?

Quote from: FairWeatherEagle on February 14, 2025, 04:08:22 PMSo MU has 3 Q2 losses? I don't doubt it but not sure who they be. I don't follow the team sheets but someone could clue me in?
I figure Dayton away and X at home for sure. Would UC at home be the other?

We should only be at two Q2 losses, at least according to this site. Could even become less than that though since UConn is close to getting their NET ranking inside the top 30.

Xavier will likely stay a Q2 loss until Selection Sunday. Our games so far against UConn and Dayton are both on the border of Q1/Q2 so both could potentially end up being in either quadrant. I think we can pretty much count on everything else staying the same, unless Georgia collapses and drops 17 spots to become a Q2 win.

Maybe MU should become a Q3 loss so they're not a target and or motivation by other teams to win.

Quote from: FairWeatherEagle on February 14, 2025, 04:08:22 PMSo MU has 3 Q2 losses? I don't doubt it but not sure who they be. I don't follow the team sheets but someone could clue me in?
I figure Dayton away and X at home for sure. Would UC at home be the other?

At the time of the writing, Dayton, Xavier, and UConn were all Q2. UConn has been on the cusp of the Q1/2 cutoff (30/31 NET).

Quote from: K1 Lover on February 14, 2025, 01:51:36 PMAny projections/numbers on how close the Big East is to potentially getting 5 bids?

I think it's unlikely at this point. This is almost certainly a 4-bid league, barring a bid thief at MSG. Here are the cases and issues:

Villanova

Resume Average is 73.0, typically teams need to be no lower than 52.5 average. Just 1-5 in Q1 and 9-9 in Q1-3. Typically need to be over 0.350 WP in Q1 and have a winning record in the first three quadrants. Three bad losses with just the one Q1 win (SJU) is hard. If they go 5-1 or 6-0 the rest of the way, they'll get a look. They really need to get the wins at UConn and over Marquette to add some beef to the top of their resume.

Xavier

Resume average of 57.7 is okay. If you asked me after they beat UConn, I thought they would get in. However, they really needed another Q1 win or two to truly feel safe. The problem was their only two opportunities after UConn was at Creighton (Loss) and at Villanova (Loss). They have an easy finish, but that means no more chances for good wins. If they win out, are the wins over Marquette, UConn, and Creighton (March 1) enough? If only one is in Q1, I doubt it. They need to win out and in the process the best case would be for UConn and Creighton to get into the top-30 NET while Marquette falls to the 31-40 range. That would give them a more acceptable 3-7 Q1 record and 14-11 in the Q1-3. But they have no margin for error and need help.

Parrish has us in at #16. He seems to be the one that's most high on MU.

Scoopers need to attack Parrish.  Unacceptable display of respect.

Quote from: CountryRoads on February 15, 2025, 10:44:26 AMParrish has us in at #16. He seems to be the one that's most high on MU.

Generally I've seen us between 16-18 pretty consistently. If we are in at 16, it shows a lot of value for what we did in November/December. Probably indicate they are heavily weighting the resume metrics, specifically the newly introduced Wins Above Bubble, where we rank 14.

MU not in top 16......we were mentioned along with MSU as being "right there".

Quote from: MuMark on February 15, 2025, 11:54:17 AMMU not in top 16......we were mentioned along with MSU as being "right there".

Close only matters in horse grenades

So, figure MU is #18 on the seed list as of today.

Quote from: MuMark on February 15, 2025, 11:54:17 AMMU not in top 16......we were mentioned along with MSU as being "right there".

St. John's is #16 and we trail them by 2 full games in conference.  We're not as close as some would like to believe

Quote from: JakeBarnes on February 15, 2025, 11:54:45 AMClose only matters in horse grenades

Or in NCAA bracket placement where the difference between #16 and #18 is imperceptible.

Quote from: HutchwasClutch on February 15, 2025, 11:57:01 AMSt. John's is #16 and we trail them by 2 full games in conference.  We're not as close as some would like to believe

Another example of overvaluing conference standings.

Michigan is 2 games ahead of Wisconsin in the B18 standings and has a head to head road win over the Badgers. Yet they are lower on the NCAA seed list today.

Quote from: HutchwasClutch on February 15, 2025, 11:57:01 AMSt. John's is #16 and we trail them by 2 full games in conference.  We're not as close as some would like to believe

Not remotely true.

MU has played a tougher schedule, has better quality wins, and the metrics gap isn't that large thanks to SJU's offense.

Conference standings are irrelevant.

What an absolute joke that Whisky is #11.  I hope Purdue pummels them today. 

Quote from: MUfan12 on February 15, 2025, 11:59:35 AMNot remotely true.

MU has played a tougher schedule, has better quality wins, and the metrics gap isn't that large thanks to SJU's offense.

Conference standings are irrelevant.

We have one good win in over two months.  We haven't beat anyone good outside Fiserv since November.  We're tending downwards

Quote from: FairWeatherEagle on February 14, 2025, 04:08:22 PMSo MU has 3 Q2 losses? I don't doubt it but not sure who they be. I don't follow the team sheets but someone could clue me in?
I figure Dayton away and X at home for sure. Would UC at home be the other?

My good friend Warren provides a one stop team sheet that he updates in real time.  Here you go!

https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2025/schedule/Marquette#google_vignette

Quick takeaways:

• Big wins matter more than metrics. Florida on the 1-line, Houston at #8 overall, Kentucky as a 3, those all preference results.
• Marquette was #17 overall, clear from Cunningham's comments. Keep winning and we will be back in there on Selection Sunday. I think a 3-seed is our ceiling.
• They used data from Tuesday and Wednesday, which in the past they have not done. But Florida as a 1, Kentucky as a 3, Michigan as a 4, and St. John's at #16 overall, that was because of Tuesday/Wednesday results.
• I had 15/16 teams correct and 11/16 on the correct line. That's pretty bad, IMO. As I built the bracket on Wednesday using Tuesday's data thinking "this would be very different if I used last night's results." Had I waited until the next morning I would've been at 16/16 on the correct line. Might indicate that results the week of Selection Sunday will matter more.

Quote from: brewcity77 on February 15, 2025, 12:11:59 PMQuick takeaways:

• Big wins matter more than metrics. Florida on the 1-line, Houston at #8 overall, Kentucky as a 3, those all preference results.
• Marquette was #17 overall, clear from Cunningham's comments. Keep winning and we will be back in there on Selection Sunday. I think a 3-seed is our ceiling.
• They used data from Tuesday and Wednesday, which in the past they have not done. But Florida as a 1, Kentucky as a 3, Michigan as a 4, and St. John's at #16 overall, that was because of Tuesday/Wednesday results.
• I had 15/16 teams correct and 11/16 on the correct line. That's pretty bad, IMO. As I built the bracket on Wednesday using Tuesday's data thinking "this would be very different if I used last night's results." Had I waited until the next morning I would've been at 16/16 on the correct line. Might indicate that results the week of Selection Sunday will matter more.

If big wins matter that much, then how the hell is St. John's in and MU not? Same with UW being a 3?

Love that they seeded Kansas a 4 and left MSU out, but St. John's best win is at home vs. NET 23 MU. UW has 1 good win against AZ and a bunch of schitty Q1s against non tournament teams. Makes no sense to me.

Quote from: MuggsyB on February 15, 2025, 12:00:07 PMWhat an absolute joke that Whisky is #11.  I hope Purdue pummels them today. 

Watching this game.  Can't believe we beat either of these teams. They would crush us if we played now.

Quote from: GoldenEagles03 on February 15, 2025, 12:18:50 PMIf big wins matter that much, then how the hell is St. John's in and MU not? Same with UW being a 3?

Love that they seeded Kansas a 4 and left MSU out, but St. John's best win is at home vs. NET 23 MU. UW has 1 good win against AZ and a bunch of schitty Q1s against non tournament teams. Makes no sense to me.

Have you considered that Gard just gets it done?

Quote from: ATL MU Warrior on February 15, 2025, 12:21:20 PMWatching this game.  Can't believe we beat either of these teams. They would crush us if we played now.

No they wouldn't. Stop being so defeatist.

We just had leads late at SJU and Creighton. We're fine.