Quote from: MountainCreekHouse on December 14, 2024, 04:28:23 AMMajor gambling sites and bettor analytics hubs give #6 Marquette a low probability of victory today against Dayton. A few renown sites say to take Dayton moneyline. FanDuel has the moneyline for both teams at even odds.

Using statistics I plugged in from KenPom, I asked ChatGPT to run a simulation of both teams playing 10,000 times. The model concluded Dayton has a 48% chance of winning and the most likely outcome will be a 75-74 Marquette victory.

I was surprised by this data. Any thoughts on why Dayton is getting this type of favorability? Bet at your own risk warriors.

Interesting. Out of curiosity, I ran my own Monte Carlo simulations. Over 10,000 games, using all available advanced statistics, and granting Dayton 2-points for home court advantage. MU still had a 56% chance of winning. Assuming a neutral floor, that was 60%.

Essentially anything less than a 4-point home court advantage and MU is the favorite.

Looks like the current betting line is 1.5. Based on the simulations, I'd take MU. Based on being a raging MU fan, I'd always bet on MU.

Quote from: K1 Lover on December 14, 2024, 10:57:20 AMWho the hell is this guy?

The answer is in the screen name.

Quote from: Fieldhouse Flyer on December 14, 2024, 10:51:02 AMThe ghost of Christmas Past still haunts UD Arena:

AP Men's Basketball Poll - December 24, 2007 - collegepollarchive.com
UD HOSTS No. 6 PITTSBURGH ON SATURDAY AT 8 PM – University of Dayton – December 28, 2007

DAYTON 80, No. 6 PITTSBURGH 55 – University of Dayton – December 29, 2007

Why are we playing a team whose fans brag about a regular season game from 18 years ago?

Quote from: tower912 on December 14, 2024, 11:00:41 AMThe answer is in the screen name.

I know, the question was rhetorical.

Quote from: MountainCreekHouse on December 14, 2024, 04:28:23 AMMajor gambling sites and bettor analytics hubs give #6 Marquette a low probability of victory today against Dayton. A few renown sites say to take Dayton moneyline. FanDuel has the moneyline for both teams at even odds.

Using statistics I plugged in from KenPom, I asked ChatGPT to run a simulation of both teams playing 10,000 times. The model concluded Dayton has a 48% chance of winning and the most likely outcome will be a 75-74 Marquette victory.

I was surprised by this data. Any thoughts on why Dayton is getting this type of favorability? Bet at your own risk warriors.

I assume you're looking for a better reason than their good and at home?

If you would have watched them in Maui you'd understand.

They have been great at taking care of the ball and their offense has been elite.

Defense not so much.......should be a good game.

Dayton's guards are good enough that Posh Alexander is the 6th man.  But their starting line up is small.  If their forwards have to defend Joplin and Gold (make some 3s!), I think Kam, Chase, and Stevie can get to the rim.   

Stay out of foul trouble, please.

Quote from: tower912 on December 14, 2024, 11:31:10 AMDayton's guards are good enough that Posh Alexander is the 6th man.  But their starting line up is small.  If their forwards have to defend Joplin and Gold (make some 3s!), I think Kam, Chase, and Stevie can get to the rim.   

Stay out of foul trouble, please.

Not entitely sure that proves a whole lot

Quote from: The Hippie Satan of Hyperbole on December 14, 2024, 11:09:23 AMWhy are we playing a team whose fans brag about a regular season game from 18 years ago?

It's a charitable time of year.

Buncha loser transfer guys. Super old group, but they blow. Go MU!

Sounds like a tossup.

At least there are jobs in Milwaukee

Quote from: NCMUFan on December 14, 2024, 08:04:40 AMRespect your opponent or look like an idiot.

Hubris police are back. 

This is strictly vibes-based analysis, but something tells me MU thumps Dayton tonight.

Quote from: Tyler COLEk on December 14, 2024, 01:34:17 PMThis is strictly vibes-based analysis, but something tells me MU thumps Dayton tonight.

May your vibes be on point!

Just a heads up, download the CBS app if you haven't already. The game before us (providence/st bonaventure) is only at the half.

Quote from: CountryRoads on December 14, 2024, 05:14:36 PMJust a heads up, download the CBS app if you haven't already. The game before us (providence/st bonaventure) is only at the half.

You're a real one for that.

So Vegas was right

Dayton rallies from 13 points down to beat No. 6 Marquette 71-63 – Associated Press – December 14, 2024

No. 6 Marquette Falls 71-63 At Dayton Saturday Night – Marquette University – December 14, 2024

Flyers Upset No. 6 Marquette At UD Arena – University of Dayton – December 14, 2024

Needed More Goon Mentality: RV Dayton 71, No. 6 Marquette 63 – Brewtown Andy, Anonymous Eagle – December 14, 2024
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The NCAA Is Adding Wins Above Bubble To The Men's Basketball Selection Criteria – Brewtown Andy, Anonymous Eagle – July 11, 2024

NCAA Men's Basketball NET Rankings – NCAA.com – Through Games December 14, 2024

9 Marquette
11 UConn   
23 Dayton
37 St. John's

53 St. Bonaventure
63 VCU
67 Creighton
68 Rhode Island
69 DePaul   
70 Villanova
74 Providence
76 Butler   
77 Xavier   
91 Georgetown
99 Notre Dame
182 Seton Hall
186 Saint Louis
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Quote from: Fieldhouse Flyer on December 14, 2024, 05:22:55 AMNeedless to say, I'll be rooting for Marquette to win the Big East Tournament in March and the NCAA Tournament in April.

Best of luck to the Warriors for the rest of the season!

Quote from: Fieldhouse Flyer on December 15, 2024, 09:13:43 AMDayton rallies from 13 points down to beat No. 6 Marquette 71-63 – Associated Press – December 14, 2024

No. 6 Marquette Falls 71-63 At Dayton Saturday Night – Marquette University – December 14, 2024

Flyers Upset No. 6 Marquette At UD Arena – University of Dayton – December 14, 2024

Needed More Goon Mentality: RV Dayton 71, No. 6 Marquette 63 – Brewtown Andy, Anonymous Eagle – December 14, 2024
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The NCAA Is Adding Wins Above Bubble To The Men's Basketball Selection Criteria – Brewtown Andy, Anonymous Eagle – July 11, 2024

NCAA Men's Basketball NET Rankings – NCAA.com – Through Games December 14, 2024

9 Marquette
11 UConn   
23 Dayton
37 St. John's

53 St. Bonaventure
63 VCU
67 Creighton
68 Rhode Island
69 DePaul   
70 Villanova
74 Providence
76 Butler   
77 Xavier   
91 Georgetown
99 Notre Dame
182 Seton Hall
186 Saint Louis
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   

Best of luck to the Warriors for the rest of the season!

Nobody cares.

Well done, ff.