Quote from: Milkshakes on November 16, 2024, 02:49:15 PMJust watched the game again. The Maryland fans were letting the fbomb and other classy chants loose with regularity.

They were saying "hey you suck" with the Hey song. Marquette must have been appalled

Quote from: forgetful on November 16, 2024, 01:58:06 PMIt's also a fact that in this game, if everything was the same, and we swapped FT% we would have lost. We would have ended up with 15.4 points from FTs, for a net loss of 3.6 pts. They would have ended up with 10.5 point from FTs, for a net gain of 1.5 pts.

I recognize that statistics across all games says that FT-rate and FT% are less important factors, but the problem with statistics (and big data analytics) is that it is an all-game average, meaning it should guide your focus on how to best approach winning across all games. All game averages/statistics do not inform on the reason for a specific game outcome.

This is a crude way to conduct the analysis of this individual game, but TOs represent about 25% of win probability. We won that battle by 5 net TOs, for a contribution of 5*0.25=1.25. We won the FT line battle (~15%) by 9 made FTs, a net affect of 9*0.15=1.35. Our most successful factor in overcoming a lower eFG% was FTs.

Or in another way, we netted 9 more points from the FT line. We got a net of 5 more possessions from TO battle. At 1.2 pts per possession (rounding up for this game), that is a net of 6.0 points (our other best performing metric). We netted 3.6 pts from better offensive rebounding.

All other things being equal, we would have lost by ~10 points based on eFG%.

So for this specific game, our ability to outperform from the FT line was the most important factor.

My guess is that Jaybee, besides just being disagreeable, is a "data-driven" type person, as opposed to a "data-guided" approach, that takes individual story lines into consideration.

LOL you can change anything else around and MU loses, lost most important factor. Won because MU basically won all else.

Quote from: Newsdreams on November 16, 2024, 03:26:53 PMLOL you can change anything else around and MU loses, lost most important factor. Won because MU basically won all else.

You are demonstrating my point. You are not examining this specific game and determining what element we outperformed in the most.

One little thing about last night's game that I haven't heard mentioned, and that didn't make any difference.

But, I thought Maryland should have been whistled for a turnover on their last possession. I know that a player inbounding after a FG or made FT can pass to another player who is out of bounds. But on that play, I didn't think the Maryland player receiving the pass had established himself as out of bounds before he first touched the ball. It was like he received the pass while in bounds and carried it out.

Did anyone else see that, or was everyone already celebrating the win? If it had been a one score game, or if they had hit the 3, I would have been screaming at the TV.

Quote from: wisblue on November 16, 2024, 04:06:10 PMOne little thing about last night's game that I haven't heard mentioned, and that didn't make any difference.

But, I thought Maryland should have been whistled for a turnover on their last possession. I know that a player inbounding after a FG or made FT can pass to another player who is out of bounds. But on that play, I didn't think the Maryland player receiving the pass had established himself as out of bounds before he first touched the ball. It was like he received the pass while in bounds and carried it out.

Did anyone else see that, or was everyone already celebrating the win? If it had been a one score game, or if they had hit the 3, I would have been screaming at the TV.

I just watched. If the rule is you have to re-establish, then you are correct. He definitely did not.

Forgetful, or NeverKnew? May be time to change your username aina

Quote from: forgetful on November 16, 2024, 03:52:46 PMYou are demonstrating my point. You are not examining this specific game and determining what element we outperformed in the most.

LOL you were the one who brought up Ft%
you don't know how it works...

Quote from: forgetful on November 16, 2024, 01:58:06 PMIt's also a fact that in this game, if everything was the same, and we swapped FT% we would have lost. We would have ended up with 15.4 points from FTs, for a net loss of 3.6 pts. They would have ended up with 10.5 point from FTs, for a net gain of 1.5 pts.

I recognize that statistics across all games says that FT-rate and FT% are less important factors, but the problem with statistics (and big data analytics) is that it is an all-game average, meaning it should guide your focus on how to best approach winning across all games. All game averages/statistics do not inform on the reason for a specific game outcome.

This is a crude way to conduct the analysis of this individual game, but TOs represent about 25% of win probability. We won that battle by 5 net TOs, for a contribution of 5*0.25=1.25. We won the FT line battle (~15%) by 9 made FTs, a net affect of 9*0.15=1.35. Our most successful factor in overcoming a lower eFG% was FTs.

Or in another way, we netted 9 more points from the FT line. We got a net of 5 more possessions from TO battle. At 1.2 pts per possession (rounding up for this game), that is a net of 6.0 points (our other best performing metric). We netted 3.6 pts from better offensive rebounding.

All other things being equal, we would have lost by ~10 points based on eFG%.

So for this specific game, our ability to outperform from the FT line was the most important factor.

My guess is that Jaybee, besides just being disagreeable, is a "data-driven" type person, as opposed to a "data-guided" approach, that takes individual story lines into consideration.

Quote from: forgetful on November 16, 2024, 01:58:06 PMIt's also a fact that in this game, if everything was the same, and we swapped FT% we would have lost. We would have ended up with 15.4 points from FTs, for a net loss of 3.6 pts. They would have ended up with 10.5 point from FTs, for a net gain of 1.5 pts.

I recognize that statistics across all games says that FT-rate and FT% are less important factors, but the problem with statistics (and big data analytics) is that it is an all-game average, meaning it should guide your focus on how to best approach winning across all games. All game averages/statistics do not inform on the reason for a specific game outcome.

This is a crude way to conduct the analysis of this individual game, but TOs represent about 25% of win probability. We won that battle by 5 net TOs, for a contribution of 5*0.25=1.25. We won the FT line battle (~15%) by 9 made FTs, a net affect of 9*0.15=1.35. Our most successful factor in overcoming a lower eFG% was FTs.

Or in another way, we netted 9 more points from the FT line. We got a net of 5 more possessions from TO battle. At 1.2 pts per possession (rounding up for this game), that is a net of 6.0 points (our other best performing metric). We netted 3.6 pts from better offensive rebounding.

All other things being equal, we would have lost by ~10 points based on eFG%.

So for this specific game, our ability to outperform from the FT line was the most important factor.

My guess is that Jaybee, besides just being disagreeable, is a "data-driven" type person, as opposed to a "data-guided" approach, that takes individual story lines into consideration.

That's a lot of words to acknowledge that FT% is a lot less significant than FTR

Quote from: wisblue on November 16, 2024, 04:06:10 PMOne little thing about last night's game that I haven't heard mentioned, and that didn't make any difference.

But, I thought Maryland should have been whistled for a turnover on their last possession. I know that a player inbounding after a FG or made FT can pass to another player who is out of bounds. But on that play, I didn't think the Maryland player receiving the pass had established himself as out of bounds before he first touched the ball. It was like he received the pass while in bounds and carried it out.

Did anyone else see that, or was everyone already celebrating the win? If it had been a one score game, or if they had hit the 3, I would have been screaming at the TV.

Yes it did look like he was still in bounds

Quote from: wisblue on November 16, 2024, 04:06:10 PMOne little thing about last night's game that I haven't heard mentioned, and that didn't make any difference.

But, I thought Maryland should have been whistled for a turnover on their last possession. I know that a player inbounding after a FG or made FT can pass to another player who is out of bounds. But on that play, I didn't think the Maryland player receiving the pass had established himself as out of bounds before he first touched the ball. It was like he received the pass while in bounds and carried it out.

Did anyone else see that, or was everyone already celebrating the win? If it had been a one score game, or if they had hit the 3, I would have been screaming at the TV.

My take watching it was that Maryland seemed to believe they needed to stick with a trick play that was devised on the assumption that MU would be pressing the inbounds play. We didn't do so aggressively and so the MD guys didn't really need to do what they did. But, they did it to set up the rest of their play. Maybe the confusion of what to do arose and led to him delaying getting established out of bounds in order to receive the pass?

Just got home from DC, so I am late to the party. Loved the way our guys played on the road with a home crowd that was louder than a thunderstorm. My ears are still ringing.

Cameron Brown's parents were sitting across the aisle from us and are very proud that their son is on the team.

Lots of high fives between MU fans on the way out. Met an '84 alum in the hotel at breakfast who is going to Nassau for the Georgia game.

Not sure if those watching on TV heard the "We are...Marquette!" cheer after the final buzzer, but it was loud and clear in the arena until the UM Boo Crew drowned them out. I'm guessing Doctor V and his gang of 20 alums had a lot to do with the cheer being heard.   

Quote from: Newsdreams on November 16, 2024, 04:32:30 PMLOL you were the one who brought up Ft%
you don't know how it works...

Actually I only argued that FTs matter, in contradiction to JayBee's typical mantra.

Quote from: TAMU, Knower of Ball on November 16, 2024, 07:01:16 PMThat's a lot of words to acknowledge that FT% is a lot less significant than FTR

It was a lot of words, I agree. I was bored, and wanted to highlight that in this particular game, FTs did matter, and that statistics/data analytics are valuable as predictive tools across all games, but the important factors in each individual game is unique to that game. Also, I should have just ignored JayBee's inane banter.

If you don't know,  when Jay Bee says "FTs no matta" it is shorthand for "FT% no matta" which is further shorthand for "FT% technically mattas but is statistically insignificant compared to eFG%, TO%, OR%, and FTR".

The irony of course being that Jay Bee is the first to jump down others' throats for not being precise with their wording

Queen was mouthy in the pre-game presser. Any comments post-game???

Quote from: ski44 on November 16, 2024, 09:57:15 PMQueen was mouthy in the pre-game presser. Any comments post-game???

Mouthy? He just said all Ben does is shoot, which is basically true, then dropped 24.

Quote from: The Hippie Satan of Hyperbole on November 16, 2024, 10:04:52 PMMouthy? He just said all Ben does is shoot, which is basically true, then dropped 24.

Then why wasn't he made available post-game? Usually guys who drop 24 in a winning or losing effort are part of the post game presser.

Quote from: ski44 on November 16, 2024, 10:22:51 PMThen why wasn't he made available post-game? Usually guys who drop 24 in a winning or losing effort are part of the post game presser.

Don't know. Don't care.

Imagine caring what a 19 year old says in a pregame presser.

Quote from: The Hippie Satan of Hyperbole on November 16, 2024, 04:11:08 PMI just watched. If the rule is you have to re-establish, then you are correct. He definitely did not.

The rule is that the player can pass to a teammate who is also out of bounds. By rule, a player is out of bounds when he touches the floor or on object on or outside the boundary line. If a player is airborne his status is determined by where he last touched the floor.

The way I saw that play it looked funny live. When I replayed it and slowed it down, it looked to me like the Maryland player who received the pass was running to get out of bounds but hadn't stepped on or over the line when he hopped, caught the ball, and landed out of bounds.

It was close, and maybe the referee thought the player touched the floor OB before he touched the ball. But the pass looked like it was thrown slightly forward to connect with the moving player. Usually when you see that play the receiving player steps and is standing clearly OB when receiving the ball.

Quote from: ski44 on November 16, 2024, 09:57:15 PMQueen was mouthy in the pre-game presser. Any comments post-game???

It seemed like he was pretty mouthy with the refs during the game too, especially for a freshman playing his first competitive college game.

Quote from: wisblue on November 16, 2024, 11:21:26 PMIt seemed like he was pretty mouthy with the refs during the game too, especially for a freshman playing his first competitive college game.

Was getting close to picking up a T on that Stevie call.

Quote from: Scoop Snoop on November 16, 2024, 08:23:24 PMNot sure if those watching on TV heard the "We are...Marquette!" cheer after the final buzzer, but it was loud and clear in the arena until the UM Boo Crew drowned them out. I'm guessing Doctor V and his gang of 20 alums had a lot to do with the cheer being heard.   

I did not, but it looked like there were a number of empty seats in the sections behind the basket (above the student section).

They were like rats fleeing from a sinking ship after we went up by 8. 

Despite the near-stampede for the exits, there were plenty of loud Boo Crew fans remaining.

On the brighter side...a couple of UM fans and I talked about the game and the teams without any guns drawn. The UM fans know ball.

Quote from: Jay Bee on November 16, 2024, 12:17:06 AMLol. So strange so many still don't get it

macro vs. micro.

Quote from: This is what Orwell warned us about...SMH on November 16, 2024, 03:17:09 PMThey were saying "hey you suck" with the Hey song. Marquette must have been appalled

Not as bad as 'Rock Your Body' performed by Justin Timberlake and Janet Jackson at the 2004 Superbowl.